Missouri Tigers at #20 Kansas St Wildcats
Bill Snyder Stadium – Manhattan, Kansas
Saturday, October 8, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN GP
Opening Line: Missouri -3
Current Line: Missouri -4
Opening Total: 55 1/2
Current Total: 55
Opening Money Line: Missouri -175 / Kansas St +155
Current Money Line: Missouri -180 / Kansas St +160
The Missouri Tigers are 2-2 this season under coach Gary Pinkel with losses at Arizona St 37-30 in overtime, and two weeks ago at Oklahoma 38-28. They have wins at home over Miami-Ohio 17-6 and Western Illinois 69-0. Now, the Tigers go on the road to take on the 4-0 Kansas St Wildcats who are ranked #20 in the country. Kansas St is coached by Bill Snyder, and has home wins over Eastern Kentucky 10-7, Kent St 37-0, and last week at home versus then #15 Baylor 36-35, and a road win at Miami-Florida 28-24. Despite this, Missouri is a 4 point favorite on the road, which seems a little strange to me, unless the college football handicappers aren’t impressed with K-State’s close wins. Missouri leads the series against Kansas St 60-31-5. The Tigers have dominated recently winning 5 straight by an average margin of 18 points, including 38-28 last year in Columbia. That might have something to do with why Missouri is favored in the contest.
Two weeks ago, Missouri jumped out to a 14-3 lead at Oklahoma. The Tigers looked like they were going to upset Oklahoma for the second year in a row when the Sooners were ranked #1 in both games. However, the Sooners stormed back and scored 28 unanswered points to take control of the game 31-14. The Sooners ended up winning 38-28 but Missouri covered the 20 point college football betting line. Missouri had 532 total yards in the contest including 241 rushing yards. Tiger quarterback James Franklin had almost 400 combined passing and rushing yards, and had 3 scores including 2 rushing touchdowns. Running back Henry Josey had 14 carries, 133 yards, and a touchdown, and receiver T.J. Moe had 7 catches for 119 yards. Oklahoma had 592 total yards, including 448 passing yards. Oklahoma overcame 2 interceptions by quarterback Landry Jones in the win.
Missouri is averaging 517 yards and 38.7 points a game. The Tigers are 8th in the nation in rushing with 253.2 yards a game. Missouri has 3 turnovers and has allowed 7 sacks this season. The Tigers are 20/62 on third and fourth down conversions. The Tigers are 14/16 scoring in the red zone but only have 9 touchdowns. Missouri is giving up 349.5 yards a game including 87 rushing yards. Missouri is allowing 20.2 points a game, The Tigers have forced 6 turnovers and 8 sacks this season. Tiger opponents are 17/54 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/11 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. The Tigers are averaging 9 penalties a game.
Franklin is 77/126 passing with 985 yards, 7 touchdowns and an interception, along with 72 carries, 260 yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. Running back Henry Josey has 43 carries, 533 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 65 yards. Depth behind Josey could be a problem as Tiger running backs De’Vion Moore, Kendial Lawrence, and Marcus Murphy are all most likely out, though Moore and Lawrence are listed as doubtful. Six Tiger receivers have caught at least one touchdown pass this season. Moe has 23 catches, 291 yards, and a touchdown. Wes Kemp has 13 catches, 152 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Grant Ressel is 18/18 on extra points and 6/10 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. The Tigers have 4 other players besides the running backs listed as doubtful or out for this game including linebackers Will Ebner & Brandon Durant and offensive linemen Chris Freeman & Elvis Fisher.
Baylor was up 35-26 at the end of the third quarter last week at Kansas St. The Wildcats outscored them 10-0 in the fourth quarter to pull off the mild upset 36-35. Baylor had 429 total yards including 346 passing yards from Heisman Trophy candidate Robert Griffin III. Griffin threw 5 touchdown passes but threw a costly interception deep in his own territory late in the game that led to the game winning field goal from Kansas St with 3:10 left. Baylor had 3 turnovers and 8 penalties in the loss. Kansas St had 356 total yards in the contest including 210 rushing yards. Wildcat quarterback Collin Klein had 259 combined passing and rushing yards, 3 touchdowns (2 passing) and an interception. That was the only turnover of the day for the Wildcats.
Kansas St is averaging 348 yards and 27.8 points a game. The Wildcats are rushing for 217.2 yards a game. Kansas St has allowed 10 sacks and they have 6 turnovers. Five came in the Eastern Kentucky game. The Wildcats are 33/65 on third and fourth down conversions, and 17 for 20 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. Kansas St is allowing 292 yards and 16.5 points a game. K-State is only allowing 87.5 rushing yards a game. The Wildcats are in the top 20 in the country in all three categories. They have forced 11 sacks and 8 turnovers. Wildcat opponents are 19/69 on third and fourth down conversions, and 3/6 scoring in the red zone with 3 touchdowns.
Klein is the leading passer and rusher for the Wildcats. He is 47/85 passing for 481 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 91 carries, 423 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Running back John Hubert has 60 carries for 343 yards, and a touchdown along with 7 catches for 66 yards, and a touchdown. Chris Harper has 17 catches for 189 yards and 2 touchdown. Kicker Anthony Cantele is 12/12 on extra points and 7/10 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. K-State Offensive lineman Manase Foketi is questionable for undisclosed reasons, and another lineman Shaun Simon is doubtful for undisclosed reassons. Reserve running back Bryce Brown is also doubtful but he only has a handful of carries this season.
Kansas St is 3-1 against the spread this season and the total is 2-2 in those games. Missouri is 3-1 ATS and 3 of those 4 games have gone over the total. Missouri is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, including 7-2 on the road, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 October games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a cover in the previous game, 5-2 in their last 7 overall, 10-4 in their last 14 as a road favorite, 17-8 in their last 25 road games, and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 on turf. Kansas St is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 following a straight up win, 4-1 ATS in the last 5 as a underdog between 3.5 and 10 points, 4-1 in the last 5 on turf, 6-2 in their last 8 October games, and 11-4 ATS in the last 15 conference games.
I don’t understand this line at all. If home field is worth 3 points, then the oddsmakers are saying Missouri is a touchdown better than Kansas St. Not only do I think Kansas St will cover, but I would even bet them at +160 on the money line because I think they have an excellent chance of winning straight up with their defense and rushing game.
Check out our college football odds page for the best lines on every game. Our college football handicappers are crushing the sports books this season.
