#17 Kansas St Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Jones AT&T Stadium – Lubbock, Texas
Saturday, October 15, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports Net
Opening Line: Texas Tech -3 1/2
Current Line: Texas Tech – 3 1/2
Opening Total: 60 1/2
Current Total 60
Opening Money Line: Texas Tech -170 / Kansas St +150
Current Money Line: Texas Tech -170 / Kansas St +150
The 5-0 Kansas St Wildcats go on the road to Lubbock to take on the 4-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Kansas St is 2-0 in the Big 12 and Texas Tech is 1-1. The Wildcats are coached by Bill Snyder, and have home wins over Eastern Kentucky 10-7, Kent St 37-0, Baylor 36-35, and last week against Missouri 24-17 along with a road win at Miami-Florida 28-24. Texas Tech is coached by Tommy Tuberville, is coming off their first loss of the season last week against Texas A&M at home 45-40. The Red Raiders have home wins over Texas St 50-10 and Nevada 35-34, along with road wins at New Mexico 59-13 and Kansas 45-34. Texas Tech leads the series 8-3 against Kansas St and has won 4 straight including a 66-14 thrashing in 2009 in Lubbock.
Kansas St hosted Missouri last week, and despite being undefeated and ranked in the top 25, K-State was a 4 point home underdog on the college football betting line to the 2-2 Tigers. The Wildcats were up 24-3 in the fourth quarter and withstood a furious fourth quarter comeback by the Tigers to hold on for a 24-17 win. Each team had a turnover in the game. K-State had only 286 total yards, including 174 rushing yards, and 18 first downs. Wildcat quarterback Collin Klein threw for 112 yards and an interception, but he did have three rushing touchdowns. Running back John Hubert had 26 carries, for 126 yards. Missouri had 326 total yards and 19 first downs.
Kansas St is averaging 335.6 yards and 27 points a game. The Wildcats are rushing for 208.6 yards a game. Kansas St has allowed 13 sacks and they have 7 turnovers. Five came in the Eastern Kentucky game. The Wildcats are 42/85 on third and fourth down conversions, and 21/25 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. Kansas St is allowing 298.8 yards and 16.6 points a game. K-State is only allowing 92.4 rushing yards a game. The Wildcats are in the top 20 in the country in all three categories. They have forced 13 sacks and 9 turnovers. Wildcat opponents are 25/74 on third and fourth down conversions, and 6/10 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.
Klein is the leading passer and second leading rusher for the Wildcats. He is 58/101 passing for 593 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 115 carries, 468 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Hubert has 86 carries for 469 yards, and a touchdown along with 7 catches for 66 yards, and a touchdown. Receiver Chris Harper has 19 catches for 226 yards and 2 touchdown. Sheldon Smith has 12 catches, 74 yards, and a touchdown. Kicker Anthony Cantele is 15/15 on extra points and 8/11 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. K-State Offensive lineman Manase Foketi is questionable for undisclosed reasons, and another lineman Shaun Simon is also questionable for undisclosed reasons.
Texas A&M was an 8.5 point favorite last week against Texas Tech in Lubbock. The Aggies were up 31-20 at halftime and were on the verge of blowing a double digit halftime lead for the third game in a row. However, A&M held on for a 45-40 win. The difference might have been a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown by the Aggies in the third quarter. The 10 point swing gave Texas A&M a 15 point lead, and they were able to hold off the rally. The Red Raiders had 523 total yards and 34 first downs. Texas Tech quarterback Seth Doege had 391 yards and threw 3 touchdown passes. Running back Eric Stephens had 22 carries, 102 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, Stephens dislocated his knee in the game and is out for the season. Receiver Alex Torres had 8 catches, 111 yards, and a touchdown. Eric Ward had 10 catches, 74 yards, and a touchdown. The Aggies had 393 total yards, including 205 rushing yards. Each team had 9 penalties and their were no turnovers.
Texas Tech has one of the most potent offenses in the country averaging 524.6 total yards and 45.8 points a game. The Red Raiders are averaging 354.6 passing yards a game. Those numbers are all ranked in the top 10 nationally. The Red Raiders have 3 turnovers and have allowed 8 sacks. Texas Tech is 51/91 on third and fourth down conversions, and 28/29 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. The Red Raider defense is definitely bend but don’t break. They give up a ton of yards but not a lot of points. Tech is allowing 420.2 yards including 224.2 rushing yards a game. However, Texas Tech is only allowing 27.2 points a game. Texas Tech has forced 11 turnovers and 8 sacks. Red Raider opponents are 33/78 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/22 scoring in the red zone, with 14 touchdowns.
Doege is 162/227 passing with 1,706 yards, 17 touchdowns and an interception along with 27 carries for 91 yards. Stephens had 109 carries, 570 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 128 yards. With Stephens gone for the season, DeAndre Washington will be the primary ball carrier. Washington has 22 carries, 107 yards, and 2 touchdowns along with 6 catches for 16 yards. Third stringer Ronnie Daniels is suspended indefinitely, so look for Aaron Crawford to get more carries behind Washington. Receiver Darrin Moore has 21 catches, 339 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He missed the last two games with a knee injury and is probable for the Kansas St game. Eric Ward has 30 catches for 289 yards, and 8 scores. Alex Torres, Cornelius Douglas, and Jacoby Franks will all get significant targets especially if Moore can’t go. Kicker Donnie Carona is 29/29 on extra points and 6/8 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. Linebacker Tanner Foster is also out for the season.
Texas Tech is 4-1 against the spread this season and 4 of the 5 games have gone over the total. Kansas St is also 4-1 ATS this season and the total is 2-3 in those games. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS following a straight up win, overall, and after allowing 20 points or fewer in the previous game, 6-1 ATS in road games against teams with winning home records, 5-1 ATS as an underdog, as an underdog of between 3.5 points and 10 points, as a road dog, and on turf, 4-1 ATS in conference games, following a cover, and in October games. The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS after allowing 40 points or more in the previous game, 4-1 ATS in the last 5 overall, 6-2 ATS on turf, 44-17-1 following a straight up loss, 5-2-1 ATS as a favorite, 5-2 ATS at home, 15-6 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 points and 10 points, 3-8 ATS following a cover, and -4 at home against teams with winning road records.
The loss of Stephens will hurt Texas Tech, because he wasn’t just the team’s leading rusher but contributed to the passing game as well. Kansas St is winning mainly on the strength of their defense, as the offense isn’t spectacular. I think Kansas St can slow down Texas Tech enough to pull off the upset, though Lubbock is a tough place to play.
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