#13 Kansas St Wildcats at #23 Texas Longhorns
Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas
Saturday, November 19, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Opening Line: Texas -9 1/2
Current Line: Texas -7 1/2 (-105)
Opening Total: 55 1/2
Current Total: 54
Opening Money Line: Texas -325 / Kansas St +275
Current Money Line: Texas -300 / Kansas St +250
The Kansas St Wildcats are 8-2 this season and ranked #13 in the BCS standings. The only two losses on the season came to top ten teams Oklahoma 58-17 and at Oklahoma St 52-45. Yet, this team still gets no respect on the college football betting line. They opened as a 9 1/2 point road underdog to a team that struggles on offense and will likely be without their top 3 running backs and one of their top receivers. It would be a ridiculous line unless you consider that the team Kansas St is facing is one of college football’s blue blood programs, the Texas Longhorns. It is kind of like going into a grocery store and buying a popular name brand cereal. The prices are usually around $2 more for the name brand as compared to the generic or store brand even though they might have the same ingredients. Texas is the brand name and that is why this line is so inflated.
Kansas St is coached by Bill Snyder and has key wins at Miami-Florida 28-24, and Texas Tech 41-34, and home wins over Baylor 36-35, Missouri 24-17, and last week 53-50 in quadruple overtime against Texas A&M. Texas is 6-3 under coach Mack Brown this season. The Longhorns also have losses to Oklahoma 55-17 in Dallas and Oklahoma St at home 38-26, and last week at Missouri 17-5. Kansas St is 5-2 in the Big 12 and Texas is 3-3. The Longhorns have key home wins over BYU 17-16, and Texas Tech 52-20 along with road wins at UCLA 49-20 and Iowa St 37-14. Kansas St leads the series 6-5 all time against Texas including 2-1 in Austin. The Wildcats have won three straight in the series including 39-14 last year in Manhattan.
Kansas St was a 5.5 point underdog last week at home against Texas A&M. Neither team scored in the first quarter, and Texas A&M scored two second quarter touchdowns to take a 14-0 lead. Kansas St tied it up before halftime. The Aggies took a 31-21 lead with 6:38 left, but Kansas St tied it up to send it into overtime. The Wildcats got lucky in the first overtime when quarterback Collin Klein fumbled the ball into the end zone and K-State recovered it for a touchdown. The Aggies tied it up. The teams exchanged field goals in the second overtime. Both teams scored touchdowns in the third overtime but both missed mandatory 2 point conversions. Texas A&M kicked a field goal in the fourth overtime, and Kansas St won on a one yard touchdown run from Klein 53-50. The Wildcats had 411 total yards including 281 passing yards from Klein who had a touchdown pass and an interception. Klein also rushed for 1-3 yards on 35 carries and 5 touchdowns. Receiver Chris Harper had 4 catches, 134 yards and a touchdown. K-State overcame 3 turnovers in the loss. Texas A&M had 10 penalties and a turnover. The Aggies had 482 total yards including 272 rushing yards.
Kansas St is averaging 364.1 yards and 35 points a game. The Wildcats are rushing for 208.5 yards and passing for 155.6 yards a game. Kansas St has allowed 27 sacks and they have 13 turnovers. The Wildcats are 76/159 on third and fourth down conversions, and 45/52 scoring in the red zone with 36 touchdowns. Kansas St is allowing 410.7 yards and 29.8 points a game. K-State is only allowing 117.2 rushing yards a game. The Wildcats are #26 in the nation. Kansas St gives up 293.5 passing yards a game. They have forced 16 sacks and 22 turnovers. Wildcat opponents are 58/148 on third and fourth down conversions, and 31/37 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. Kansas St has 5 defensive / special teams touchdowns this season.
Klein is the leading passer and rusher for the Wildcats. He is 129/219 passing for 1,504 yards with 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 241 carries, 1,009 yards, and 24 touchdowns. Running back John Hubert has 161 carries for 781 yards, and 2 touchdowns along with 18 catches for 142 yards, and a touchdown. Angelo Pease has 2 rushing touchdowns on 34 carries. Harper has 37 catches for 509 yards and 4 touchdown. Tyler Lockett had three touchdown catches, and also had 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns. He is out for the season with a kidney injury. Kicker Anthony Cantele is 41/42 on extra points and 13/18 on field goals with a long of 54 yards.
Last week Texas was a one point underdog at Missouri. Texas recovered a fumble to set up a first quarter field goal, but Missouri scored 2 second quarter touchdowns to take a 14-3 halftime lead. In the third quarter each team blocked a punt. Missouri kicked a field goal after theirs, and Texas scored a safety on theirs. That was all the scoring in the game as Missouri won an ugly 17-5 game. Each team had a turnover. Texas had been averaging over 240 yards rushing a game coming into the Missouri game. However, the Longhorns were held to 247 total yards with only 76 rushing yards, and just 13 first downs. It didn’t help that the Longhorns top 3 running backs all are injured. Foswhitt Whittaker is gone for the season after tearing his ACL. Joe Bergeron (hamstring) and Malcolm Brown (toe) are both doubtful against Kansas St. Both missed the Missouri game. Receiver Jaxon Shipley has missed the last two games and is doubtful for this week as well with a knee injury. Texas quarterback David Ash threw for 158 yards and an interception. Missouri had 338 total yards with 186 passing yards.
Texas is averaging 416 yards and 31.1 points a game. The Longhorns average 188.6 passing yards, and 227.4 rushing yards a game. Texas is #15 rushing in the country. Texas has 16 turnovers and has allowed 21 sacks. Texas is 68/148 on third and fourth down conversions, and 31/41 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. The Longhorns allow 313.8 yards and 21 points a game. Texas gives up 212.6 passing yards and 101.2 rushing yards a game. The rush defense is #10 nationally. Texas has forced 16 turnovers and 16 sacks this season. Longhorn opponents are 47/142 on third and fourth down conversions, and 24/29 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. Texas has 3 special teams touchdowns this season, but has allowed 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns. Although 3 came in the Oklahoma game.
Texas quarterbacks David Ash and Case McCoy were platooning until four games ago when Ash was named the full time starter. Ash is 78/134 passing for 898 yards, 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and he has a rushing touchdown and 66 yards on the ground. McCoy is 40/62 passing for 488 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receivers John Harris and Jaxon Shipley each have a touchdown pass out of the Wildcat formation. Brown has 131 carries, 635 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Bergeron has 60 carries, 414 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Whittaker had 66 carries, 386 yards, and 6 touchdowns, and 16 catches, 145 yards, and a touchdown catch. Whittaker also had 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns. D.J. Monroe and Jeremy Hills will get most of the carries with the top 3 backs out. Fullback Cody Johnson has 4 touchdown runs. Receiver Mike Davis has 33 catches, 521 yards, and a touchdown. Shipley has 33 catches, 438 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 11 carries for 39 yards. D.J. Grant has 10 catches and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Justin Tucker is 34/34 on extra points, and 12/14 on field goals with a long of 52 yards.
Texas is 5-4 ATS and the total is 4-4-1 this year. Kansas St is 8-2 ATS and the total is 7-3 this year. Kansas St has covered the last 4 against Texas. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in road games, 5-0 as a road dog of between 3.5 and 10 points, 8-1 overall, 7-1 as a road underdog and on turf, 6-1 after a win and a cover, and as an underdog, 4-1 against teams with winning records, 16-5 in conference games, 5-2 in November, and 7-3 after scoring 40 points or more. The Longhorns 4-0 ATS as a favorite, 4-1 as a home favorite, 4-9 on turf, 6-14-1 at home, 2-5 in November, and after allowing 20 points or less, 7-18-1 against teams with winning records, and 3-8 in conference games.
With so many injuries, There is no way Texas should be favored by this many points even at home. College football handicappers agree as the line has moved from -9 1/2 to -7 1/2. Kansas St struggles on defense, but one thing they are good at is stopping the run. Texas will have to win on the strength of David Ash’s arm and I don’t see that happening. Take the points with K-State and maybe even take a chance on the money line.
Check out our college football odds page for the best lines on sides, totals, money lines, and first half/halftime sides and totals and real time line updates. Our college football handicappers are crushing the sports books this season and are releasing winners and key plays every day.
