Indiana AT Penn State
Mar 10, 2011 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line: Penn State -4.5
Current Line: Penn State -4
Opening Total: 128.5
Current Total: 129
Opening Moneyline: Penn -175 / Ind +155
Current Moneyline: Penn -190 / Ind +160
This game brings together the 11th seeded Indiana Hoosiers against the 4th seeded Penn State Nittany Lions. Indiana (12-19 sports a horrible 3-15 record in Big Ten play while Penn State (16-13) has broke even in conference play at 9-9.
Penn State has won 4 of their past 6 games with victories coming against Northwestern (twice) and Minnesota (twice) and with the two losses having come against two ranked teams: #10 Wisconsin and #1 Ohio State. They lost those two games by an average of 15.5 points, showing that they are unable to dance with the elite teams, despite being a decent team. Penn State is barely above break even in point differential with +0.3. They play a slow paced game, scoring only 64.2 and giving up 63.9. The 64.2 points rank them 287th in the nation.
Indiana has lost 8 straight. Their last win was on February 2nd against the then 20th ranked Minnesota. In Indiana’s defense, 4 of the 8 losses came against ranked teams, but they lost those games by an average of 14 a game. Indiana, despite being 7 games UNDER .500 still sports a +1.6 win differential.
Some betting trends:
Penn State is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games. Penn State is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against Indiana and Penn State is 7-18 SU in their last 25 against Indiana. The total has gone UNDER in all 5 of Penn State and Indiana’s last 5 meetings.
Indiana is led by 6’8″ sophomore forward Christian Watford. Watford averages a team high 16 points per game to go along with 5.4 rebounds per game. He’s an effective player inside and out and shoots 38.7% from three (36 of 93). He has scored in double figres in 28 of Indiana’s 31 games and in the three he failed to score in double figures, Indiana lost all three by an average of 12.3 points. He has scored 20 or more 6 times and Indiana has won 2 of those 6 games. Verdell Jones III and Jordan Hulls also make significant contributions, averaging 12.7 points per game and 11.1 points per game, respectively. Indiana goes 9 deep in their rotation and all 9 players play at least 13 minutes a game.
Penn State is led by 6’0″ senior point guard Talor Battle. Battle averages 20.4 points per game and 3.1 assists per game, as well as 4.3 boards per game. He’s scored in double figures in every Penn State game and has scored 25 or more 8 times, but Penn State has lost 5 of those games. He has scored 31 points twice (both against Michigan). Battle has increased his scoring average every year at Penn State and has averaged 37 minutes a game for the last three years. His career will go down as one of the best at Penn State and he could be selected in the second round of the NBA draft.
Penn State is favored and really it’s because of Battle. He won’t be challenged by NC State’s guards and it is going to be up to Indiana’s interior players to give Penn State a challenge and win this game.
