The Buffs are getting great betting value with the current lines. After Cal opened as a 4 point favorite the college football betting line has continually risen to the present 10 points. The public had been playing California very strong, but with the line up to 10 points the Buffaloes are getting just over 50% of public action. That being said, it might be wise to grab Colorado at 10 points while you still can.
Colorado is coming off a nice non-conference win over in-state rival Colorado State, 24-3. The Rams were never really in the game, either; the Buffs were clearly the better team. Although beating CSU might not seem like much of a challenge, the Buffs lost last year. Additionally, the underdog was 10-3 ats in recent match-ups, but CU – the favorite –covered the spread with ease. That might be a sign that the Buffs are finally becoming the team they should’ve been the past few years.
The Buffs started to turn the corner last season when Hawkins benched his quarterback son, Cody Hawkins. In his stead, Tyler Hansen came in and clearly outperformed his predecessor. Wide receiver Scotty McKnight is Hansen’s main target, and McKnight will likely earn all-Big 12 honors this season. Running back Rodney Stewart might, too. Stewart is especially quick with deceptive power (a little like Jahvid Best, the former Cal Bear standout). Importantly, the entire CU o-line returns. In fact, if I’m not mistaken, the entire two-deep on the offensive line is set to come back. Depth is critical against good teams.
The defense, which was awful last year, should be on average at least a touchdown better. The front 7 is talented, though not overly experienced. The secondary is the unit with the most experience, with Jimmy Smith being a cornerback who is poised for a big season. Last week against CSU, the Buffs grabbed 3 interceptions.
California annihilated UC-Davis last week. The Golden Bears are led by senior qb Kevin Riley, who has the ability to explode for big games and implode for bad losses. All things considered, though, Riley is a talented quarterback with quality experience for Coach Tedford. Replacing Best is Shane Vereen who saw a lot of action after Best was injured last year. He has shown flashes of brilliance, and behind 4 returning offensive linemen, he and Riley should give Cal great balance.
Defensively the Bears will be strong up front. The d-line and linebacking corps are both solid. The question mark for Cal is the secondary. Last year only Washington State gave up more yards through the air. Playing Colorado will be much different than playing UC-Davis. Don’t be surprised to see the Buffs throw the ball more often this game than any other game all year. It’ll be tough to run against this defense, but Hansen should be able to locate and connect with McKnight and others down the field.
It’s no surprise that Cal is favored in this game, but getting 6 extra points from the time of the opening line is a gift. Lines between major schools like this are not off 6 points from the opener, the bookmakers are pretty good at setting lines and this one while it may have been off from the opener of -4, wasn’t off by 6 points. Finding extra value with particular betting lines is a great way to identify winning plays (see: Oklahoma vs. Utah State). The Buffs should be much improved this year, especially with all of their experience on offense and in the secondary. California might end up winning, but Colorado should give them a good game and cover the 10 points.
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Before anyone follows this advice I’d encourage them to look at Cal’s non-conference home record. When was the last time they lost a non-conference home game? 2003? At all under Tedford?
Yup Rob it was 2003, 14-1 straight up since 2003, only 6-5 ATS which is what we care about. If you think taking games that have moved 6 points off the open is a recipe for winning good luck to you.