Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns
Saturday, 10/20/12, 8:00 PM EST, TV: ABC
Opening Point Spread: Texas -10.5
Current Betting Line: Texas -10.5
Opening Total: 82
Current Total: 80.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Baylor has won back-to-back games in this series, but has never won three straight against Texas in this in-state rivalry. The Bears have suffered consecutive losses to the TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers, while going OVER in all four opportunities this year. The Bears’ highest-octane offense leads the nation in averaging 398.4 passing yards per game, as they’ve managed to score 30-plus points in 10 of their last 11 games. Baylor is 0-2 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival the last two-plus seasons.
The Bears have tallied a plus-six turnover margin in their four wins, but have lost the battle by seven miscues in their two setbacks. Baylor is in the midst of a six-week stretch that includes one home game and four road contests. Quarterback Nick Florence has filled in admirably for Robert Griffin III, as he’ll likely target wide receiver Terrance Williams, who leads the nation with 830 receiving yards. Prior to being held to 432 total yards against TCU, the team had posted more than 500 yards of total offense in 10 consecutive games.
Texas suffered its second-straight loss in embarrassing fashion last week, as it was out-gained by a 388-yard margin in a 63-21 setback to the Oklahoma Sooners as three-point neutral-site underdogs. The Longhorns have been absolutely dreadful defensively in all facets, which includes ranking 111th nationally in allowing opponents to rush for 5.14 yards per carry. It’s still important to note that three of the team’s last four opponents had an offense among the top 10 nationally. Texas is 2-0 ATS after allowing 35 points or more in two consecutive losses against conference teams.
The Longhorns have totaled at least 400 total yards against the Bears in 18 of the last 19 meetings, including 557 in last year’s 48-24 defeat as 1.5-point road underdogs. Texas is 41-10 at this particular venue against Big 12 opponents during the Mack Brown era, which happens to be the second-most victories at home in that situation among conference teams over the last 15 years.
Sports bettors will likely back the Longhorns due to their 5-2 ATS record after two or more consecutive losses versus the number, while the Bears are 1-6 ATS on the road with a total of 63 or higher.
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