Boston Celtics AT Golden State Warriors
Feb 22, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line: Boston -4.5
Current Line: Boston -5
Opening Total: 197
Current Total: 198.5
Opening Moneyline: Bos -200 / GSW +170
Current Moneyline: Bos -190 / GSW +171
Despite having been one of the league’s better road teams over the past three seasons, the lowly Golden State Warriors have nothing but victories at home against Boston since the “Big 3” era began in 2007-08. The Celtics will attempt to end a 6 game losing streak at Oracle Arena tonight. The Celtics are 15-9 on the road this season; there are only 6 teams with more road wins, but when the Celtics are giving up 107.0 points per game over the last 3 games in Oracle, it’s difficult to win, even if the offense is good.
Four of the Celtics’ five starters played in the All-Star game this last weekend, and Golden State did not have a representative in the West. Perhaps while the Warriors’ core of Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, and David Lee are very good (Lee in fact made the all star team last year), their lack of overall team success hurt their respective chances at making the squad.
Some betting trends:
The total hasg one UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games and Boston is 12-5 SU in their last 17 games. Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 8 road games. Boston is 15-8 SU in their last 23 games on the road. Boston is 3-6 SU in their last 9 against Golden State and Boston is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against Golden State. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 8 games against the Warriors and Boston is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road against Golden State. Boston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road at Golden State.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State’s last 9 games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. Golden State is 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State’s last 7 games at home. The total has gone OVER in 13 of Golden State’s last 19 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8 games against Boston. Golden State is 6-3 SU in their last 9 against the Celtics and Golden State is 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games against Boston.
Key Matchups:
Kevin Garnett vs David Lee
David Lee’s numbers are down in every statistical category from last year, and this is the first year in his career that he has been under 50% from the field. Garnett has done just the opposite and is having his best season since 2007-08, his first as a Celtic. Garnett turns 35 this May and the sheer number of miles on his knees are starting to wear him thin, but he has the toughness to grit out a couple more seasons past this one. He’s played nearly 1200 regular season games at an average of nearly 37 minutes a night over his 16 year NBA career. He’ll go down as one of the greatest power forwards ever, and in his prime, he may have been the best ever. Lee is actually a better player than Garnett now, but only because of Garnett’s age. He’s been effective over a long span of time and like Duncan, will remain relevant until he retires.
Ray Allen vs Monta Ellis
Ellis ranks 5th in the league in scoring with 25.3 points per game, but of the shooting guards out there, Ray Allen is one with one of the better chances at slowing Ellis. Allen has the stamina to stay with Ellis all over the court for big minutes and that’s really the key to covering Ellis – just maintaining a steady effort over the full period of the game. Ellis is going to get his, and he will score more than 20 most nights, but by simply sticking with him and consistently getting a hand up, Ray Allen should be able to prevent Ellis from having a huge night, and consequently Golden State sneaking out another victory.
Though Boston is favored for tonight’s game, their lack of success in Golden State is worrysome. Golden State has the tools to score against even Boston’s stingy offense and that alone will give them a great shot at winning tonight.
