Tampa Bay Rays AT Boston Red Sox
April 13, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST
Opening Runline:  BOS -1.5 +130, TAM +1.5 -150
Current Runline:  BOS -1.5 +135, TAM +1.5 -155
Opening Moneyline:  BOS -160, TAM +140
Current Moneyline:  BOS -148, TAMP +138
Opening Total:  9.5
Current Total: 9.5

SP:  TAM- J. Shields, BOS- J. Lackey

After the Yankees’ series, it appeared the Red Sox were beginning to get things together.  A matchup against another struggling but good team did not prove to be the elixer.  Tampa Bay has won the first two matchups of this series – the first a rout, and they yesterday – a 3 to 2 victory.  David Price allowed only 2 runs and 5 hits in 7 2/3rds innnings and his win gave the Red Sox their worst record in line with the 1925, 1927, and 1996 teams.

Losing pitcher Jon Lester was understandably frustrated by the lack of run support.  “We need a night like they had (Monday) night,” Lester said. “We need a night where we show up and just pound the baseball and we do everything right. … We’re just not putting everything together. One night it’s the pitching. One night it’s the hitting. Some nights it’s both. Nothing right now is clicking for us.”

Boston’s starter John Lackey was signed to a 5 year $82.5 M dollar contract and so far he has posted a 15.58 ERA and allowed 336 baserunners since the start of 2010, the absolute worst in the entire majors over that span of time.  Of the 17 hits Lackey has allowed this year, 13 have been extra base hits.  He got a win he didn’t truly deserve on Friday when he gave up 6 runs in 5 innings, but was bailed out by the hot hitting offense posting 9 runs of their own.  Lackey’s PECOTA projection calls for a 12-10 record with a 4.13 ERA.  He must radically improve his pitching to have a chance of falling under 4, or even near 4, given his recent performances.

James Shields had a similar fate in his opener.  He, too, was bailed out by the offense, though he failed to record a decision.  A no decision can be thought of as a gift when a pitcher gives up 6 runs in 5 innings, so Shields 0-1record could and should really be 0-2  His ERA is respectable at 4.73.  In his 16 starts against the Red Sox, Shields is 5-9 with a 5.17 ERA in 16 starts.  James Shields PECOTA projections predict a 13-10 record with a 4.02 ERA.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 20 of Tampa’s last 24 games and the Rays are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games.  The total has also gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa’s last 12 games on the road and the Rays are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road.  The total has gone OVER In 4 of Tampa’s last 5 games against the Red Sox.  The Rays are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against Boston and the total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa’s last 8 games on the road against Boston.  Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in their last 11 road games against the Boston Red Sox.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston’s last 15 games and the Red Sox are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games.  The total has also gone OVER In 6 of the Red Sox’s last 8 games at home and it has also gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games against the Tampa Bay Rays.  Boston is 3-9 SU in their last 12 against Tampa Bay and they are 3-8 SU in their last 11 at home against Tampa.  The total has gone OVER In of Boston’s last 8 games at home against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Given Lackey’s horrible pitching, Boston may have trouble winning this one.  He must get control over his pitches if he is going to have success with Tampa’s lineup, struggling though they may be.  Obviously, Tampa is praying on Longoria coming back and fixing all these problems, but they must realize at this point that they need more production from the guys that actually are healthy.