Milwaukee Bucks AT Miami Heat
Tuesday, January 4th 2011 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Miami -11
Current Line:  Miami -11
Opening Total: 184.5
Current Total: 183
Opening Moneyline:  Miami -525 / Milwaukee +425
Current Moneyline: Miami -600 / Milwaukee +425

The Heat are absolutely on fire.  They have won 18 of their last 19 after starting the season 8-7 and they are now only half a game behind Boston for the best record in the East.  It’s going to be hard to lose when you have LeBron James scoring 38 and Wade scoring 31 with 11 rebounds.  In that victory against lowly Charlotte, they outscored the Bobcats 73-54 after the first quarter.

“I think we do a good job of playing off each other,” said Wade, averaging 35.3 points on 54.4 percent shooting the last four games. “This is what we envisioned and it’s starting to come true.”

Milwaukee has been without starting second year point guard Brandon Jennings, but the shortest player in the league 5’5″ Earl Boykins has been filling in admirably.  He scored 26 points last game and should have a good night against the poor defense of Carlos Arroyo.  He somehow always finds a way to get his shot off despite being nearly a foot shorter than most of his opponents.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games and UNDER in 4 of their last 5 on the road, as well.  They have lost 8 of their last 11 on the road and the total has gone UNDER in all 5 of the last 5 matchups against Miami.  They are 8-16 over their last 24 against the Heat and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 road games in Miami.  They have lost 8 of their past 12 in Miami, as well, but have won 4 of their past 6 in Miami.

Miami has won 8 of their last 9 at home and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games against Milwaukee.

Key matchups:

Earl Boykins vs. Carlos Arroyo / Mario Chalmers

It seems weird to consider a matchup not involving one of Miami’s big 3 as a key matchup, but this really is.  Arroyo is a notoriously poor defender and Boykins is capable of scoring a lot, despite being 8″ shorter than Arroyo.  He’ll find a way to get his high arcing jumpshots off, and has the potential to have a very big game.  Arroyo may find himself on the bench half the game in favor of Chalmers, who is a much better defender.

John Salmons vs. Dwyane Wade

Ah, this is more like it, a matchup involving one of Miami’s two superstars.  Salmons has been having a disappointing year, but he is a good playmaker and with a shoot first point guard in Boykins, Salmons will be creating a lot of shots via pick and rolls and pick and pops.  He’ll team with Bogut a lot in 2-5 pick and rolls and Bogut is a good scorer, as well.  Miami doesn’t ordinarily have problems with the pick and roll, as their defense is allowing the third fewest points in the league.

This game probably won’t be very close as indicated by NBA oddsmakers, but Milwaukee isn’t a horrible team, and if they can get their backcourt going, they could at least cover the spread.