Detroit Pistons AT Utah Jazz
Monday, January 3rd, 2011 at 9:05 PM EST
Opening Line: Utah -10.5
Current Line: Utah -9
Opening Total: 192
Current Total: 193
Opening Moneyline: Utah -600 / Detroit +450
Current Moneyline: Utah -500 / Detroit +350
Tonight’s NBA pick brings together the 11-22 Pistons against the 23-11 Jazz. Utah has not lost to Detroit since 2005. That equates to 10 straight victories, as the out of conference opponents only play twice a year typically.
Utah last took down Memphis, with the help of a strong effort from their bench. The Jazz bench, led by Earl Watson and Gordon Hayward outscored Memphis’ bench 32-6. Rookie Gordon Hayward is starting to show what made him an early draft selection, as he has averaged 13.7 points per game over his last 3 games. Millsap continued his strong play with a 22 point 10 rebound performance.
The Pistons have been bad this year against the Western Conference, having won only 4 of 15 games and Detroit has lost 16 of their last 18 in Energy Solutions Arena in Utah.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games and they have won only 5 of their last 17 games. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of their last 12 raod games and they have lost 10 of their past 11 on the road, including having lost 5 of their last 7. They are 1-6 ATS in those games and are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs Utah on the road. The total has gone OVER In 5 of Utah’s last 7 road games against Utah.
Utah is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER In 6 of their last 9 games. Utah has won 5 of their last 7 and 9 of their last 12 at home. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games at home. The total has gone OVER in 8 of the last 9 against Detroit.
Key matchups:
Charlie Villanueva & Greg Monroe vs. Paul Millsap
Millsap clearly has the advantage against the poor defending Villaneuva and the inexperienced Monroe. In his last meeting against Detroit on March 10th of last season, Millsap went for 18 points and 9 boards, which was above his average last season but is about right on target for his average this year. He saw 30 minutes that night and is averaging near 35 minutes a night this year, so the potential is there for a big game. Villanueva won’t put much pressure on Millsap, as he prefers to expend all his energy on the other end of the court, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Millsap get Monroe into early foul trouble.
Rodney Stuckey vs. Deron Williams
Both of these point guards normally have size advantages against opposing point guards, but tonight that will be negated, as both are stocky 6’3″ point guards. Stuckey has a bit of a speed advantage, but Deron Williams’ crafty moves often render him looking faster than he is on offense. Stuckey will go hard at Williams and attempt to get to the paint and to the line. But Andrei Kirilenko will be there for weak side help and Millsap will change some shots too, so he might have trouble getting things going tonight. Utah does hold their opponents to 96.9 points per game.
One thing you won’t see tonight is good rebounding teams. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league. One would be inclined to say that there will be good defense, but more than that, it will just be bad offense on the part of Detroit. They slow it down and hope that they limit the number of Jazz shot attempts in their effort to steal one on the road.
