We have finally come to the end of the line – this is the last time I will write about the Super Bowl before it happens. I’m going to go with a UFC 94 preview tomorrow instead. I’m looking forward to the game as much as anyone, but I just wish it would get here. I have dissected this game a million different ways and I am frankly a little sick of it. I have my opinions, you have your opinion, and everyone else has their opinion, and there is probably not much that any of us can say to change that. Instead of trying to change your thinking, I thought I would look at five things that I am looking forward to about the game:
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Author: T.O. Whentam
I want to take a look at some of the Super Bowl props that I find interesting. Before I do, though, I want to make it clear that I think props are good for a bit of fun, but absolutely nothing else. They are worth playing for entertain, but if you are looking at them as a serious bet then, in my eyes, you are fooling yourself. They are a gamble, and the Super Bowl is all about gambling, so have at it. Just be sure to shop around for the best odds. Here are five props that I like:
Player to win MVP – Santonio Holmes (+1500) – Looking at all the possible players, this is the one I like best. Holmes is Pittsburgh’s best chance at making the type of acrobatic play that MVP voters love. I don’t necessarily think he will win, but his price best reflects value. For less value I don’t mind the idea of playing both QBs, either. It would return a profit either way.
Player to score first TD – Tim Hightower (10/1) – There are a lot of ways that this game could play out, but one is that Arizona’s offense could find a way to move early on and then punch it in when they get close. If that happens then Hightower would likely get the score. The chances of that happening seem better than 10/1 to me.
I’m what I would call an enthusiastic amateur horseplayer. I absolutely love going to the races, and I love the puzzle that races present, but I don’t put in the time or effort that it takes to be good at picking winners over the long term. Regular winners at the tracks are magicians. Because I’m not a hardcore ‘capper I have to rely on tricks to spot winners from time to time. My favorite such trick is to look in the past performances for a horse that loses ground compared to the leader at some point in the race, and then gains it back later on. That shows a couple of things – the horse is in good enough shape to be ready for a late charge, and he has the heart and determination to pick himself back up when he is down. If a horse has done that at least twice in his last five races then he’s certainly worth a real look.
The teams have arrived in Tampa Bay and we are, mercifully, getting closer and closer to the game. Every year I forget just how painful these two weeks are – too much time and not enough news to fill it. We’ll get into the nitty gritty of some specific analysis over the next couple of days, but let’s start the week with some more general thoughts and observations:
I did something this weekend that recommend to every sports bettor from time to time – I completely unplugged from the sports world for a couple of days. I picked my wife up after she was done work on Friday and we headed to the mountains of Banff. We ate well, tried to stay warm in the incredible cold, caught a concert (Ian Tyson – a true Canadian legend), saw a movie (Benjamin Button – I loved it), and generally wandered around doing not very much. What I didn’t do was watch any sports, think about any sports, or do anything even remotely related to sports. No TV, no computers, no radio, nothing. It was brilliant.
It seems strange, but there is a surprising amount of interesting coaching news percolating around today. Here’s a look:
Dan Reeves is reportedly interviewing to become the offensive coordinator for the 49ers. Though I like the Niners and Reeves, I don’t get this at all. Reeves is 65, he has a radio gig that keeps him busy enough, and he has spent some time working to establish a football program at Georgia State University. He hasn’t been in the pro game since he left Atlanta in 2003, and hasn’t been a coordinator since 1980. It’s hard to figure out why he would be inspired to get back into this game, and why he would want to take a risky job like this one if he did. I can only imagine that nothing will ultimately come of this one.
As I’m sure you have seen, my colleague posted a list of important sporting dates coming up in the next couple of months. I like the idea, so I thought I would add some of my own as well. These are some of the dates circled on my calendar that weren’t on the other list.
Ricky Hatton and Manny Pacquiao couldn’t agree on money, and their fight that was supposed to be on May 2 has been called off. It sounds fairly permanent, but I am hopeful that they can get over themselves and get the deal done. This one was going to be a great fight, and boxing needs all the big fights it can get. These are quite likely the two best fighters out there right now, and they clearly don’t like each other, so this thing could have ended with a corpse. Hatton is looking for a new opponent after pulling Pacquiao’s contract, but there is no one he can find who will be any better. Unless, of course, Floyd Mayweather can be coaxed out of retirement for a rematch. That would be one to watch. Actually, the only thing better than that one would be Pacquiao – Mayweather.
It’s a bit late to be getting to this since the first round is almost in the books, but there has been other pressing stuff to cover so a look at the Aussie Open hasn’t happened yet. I was spurred to do it today by a comment on yesterday’s post. Without further ado:
Way, way under the radar, the Dolphins have signed a former Penn State linebacker named Cameron Wake. He was undrafted in 2005, and headed to the B.C. Lions in the CFL. I’ve watched him play up here for two years, and I have honestly probably never seen a more viciously effective linebacker. He’s been the defensive player of the year in the CFL in both of his seasons, and he rushes the passer like you wouldn’t believe. He’s obviously taking a major step up in class, but Miami liked him enough to outbid at least four other teams and give him a million dollar signing bonus. If he gets a chance then he’ll be worth watching. If he comes through then remember where you heard it first.
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