Arkansas Razorbacks at #2 Kentucky Wildcats
Rupp Arena – Lexington, Kentucky
Tuesday, January 17, 2012, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Kentucky -17 1/2
Current Line: Kentucky -16 1/2
Opening Total: 146
Current Total: 149
Opening Money Line: Kentucky -2000 / Arkansas +1200
Current Money Line: Kentucky -2200 / Arkansas +1300
The Kentucky Wildcats are 17-1 overall and ranked #2 in both polls. The Wildcats are 3-0 in SEC play as they host the 13-4 (2-1 SEC) Arkansas Razorbacks. Kentucky is tied with Vanderbilt for first place in the conference, and Arkansas is part of a four team pack a game behind in second place. Kentucky leads the series 24-8 against Arkansas, including 11-2 in Lexington. Arkansas snapped a ten game losing streak to Kentucky last season in Fayetteville 77-76 in overtime in the schools’ only meeting last year.
Arkansas is coached by Mike Anderson. The Razorbacks have losses to Houston, UConn, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss. Arkansas has wins over Oakland, Louisiana Tech, Charlotte, Mississippi St, and Saturday at home against LSU 69-60.
Kentucky is coached by John Calipari. The Wildcats’ only loss came at Indiana. Kentucky has won 9 straight games since then. Kentucky has wins over Kansas, Penn St, Old Dominion, St. John’s North Carolina, Louisville, South Carolina, Auburn, and Saturday at Tennessee 65-62.
Arkansas is outscoring opponents 77-66 this season. The Razorbacks are shooting 44% from the field and 34.8% from 3 point range. Arkansas makes 69% of their free throws. The Razorbacks average 37.9 rebounds and have a rebounding margin of -0.9. Arkansas averages 15.2 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 9.3 steals and 6.4 blocks a game. Razorback opponents are shooting 39.1% from the field, and 30.6% from 3 point range. Arkansas forces 18.4 turnovers a game.
Arkansas forward Marshawn Powell is out for the season with a knee injury. He only played in 2 games before the injury. He averaged 10.8 points, and 4.5 rebounds a game last year. B.J. Young averages 15 points, 3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He is shooting 43.8% from 3 point range. Mardracus Wade averages 11 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.7 steals a game to lead the team. He is shooting 49.3% from 3 point range. Rickey Scott averages 9.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. Julysses Nobles averages 9.4 points, 4 rebounds, 3.6 assists to lead the team, and 1.2 steals a game. Devonta Abron leads the Razorbacks in rebounds with 5.2 a game. Hunter Mickleson leads the team in blocks with 2.8 a game.
Kentucky is outscoring opponents 79-59 this season. The Wildcats are shooting 48.3% from the field and 36.7% from 3 point range. Kentucky is in the top 25 nationally in scoring and field goal percentage. The Wildcats make 71.6% from the free throw line. Kentucky is 9th nationally in rebounding with 40.7 boards a game, with a rebounding margin of +7.7. The Wildcats average 13.6 assists, 13.3 turnovers, 6.9 steals, and 9.1 blocks a game. Kentucky opponents are shooting 35.6% from the field and 30.2% from 3 point range. The Wildcats are second nationally in opponents’ field goal percentage. Kentucky forces 14.2 turnovers a game.
Kentucky has 5 players averaging double digits in scoring. Guard Doron Lamb averages 14 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists a game. He is shooting 45.7% from 3 point range. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist averages 13.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.2 blocks a game. Freshman forward sensation Anthony Davis averages 13.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 4.6 blocks a game. He leads the Wildcats in rebounds, steals, and blocks. Terrence Jones averages 11.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.8 blocks a game. Marquis Teague averages 10.7 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists to lead the team, and 1.2 steals a game. Darius Miller averages 9.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists a game. Guards Jon Hood and Sam Malone are both out indefinitely with knee injuries.
Kentucky is 3-13-1 and the total is 6-11 this season. Arkansas is 4-5 ATS and the total is also 4-5 this season. Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 against Arkansas, and 5-1 ATS in Lexington against the Razorbacks. Six of the last seven meetings have gone over the total. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 13 points or more, 23-52-2 as a road underdog, 15-37-1 in road games against teams with winning records, 6-15 after a straight up win, 15-38-1 in road games, 1-4 as an underdog, and 0-4 after a cover. The Wildcats are 5-11-1 ATS in SEC games, 7-18-2 as a favorite, 1-4 in Tuesday, 2-13-1 after a straight up win, and overall, 1-9-1 as a favorite of 13 points or more, including 0-8-1 at home, 0-10-1 after failing to cover, and as a home favorite, 0-8-1 against teams with winning records, and 0-5 at home against teams with losing road records.
Kentucky is one of the most deep and talented teams in the country. They could beat most teams by 20 or 30 points if they wanted to. However, the Wildcats seemingly have shown no interest in doing so. Kentucky has only covered 3 times in 15 lined games this season. Knetucky will win, but I like Arkansas to stay within the 16 1/2 point number.
