Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins, Pauley Pavilion, Westwood, CA
Saturday, February 26, 2011, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports net
Opening Line: UCLA -1
Current Line: UCLA -2 1/2
Opening Total: 139
Current Total: 140 1/2
Money Line: UCLA -145 / Arizona +125
Though each of these teams were upset recently on the road in Pac-10 play, this game is still for first place in the Pac-10. Arizona climbed to #10 in both polls with am 8 game winning streak. However the streak was snapped Thursday with a 65-57 loss at USC Thursday night. Arizona is still 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Pac-10. They lead the Pac-10 by a game over UCLA. The Bruins are 20-8 overall and 11-4 in the Pac-10. An Arizona win today would wrap-up the conference title as they would hold a two game lead with 2 to play and the tiebreaker. Arizona beat UCLA last month in Tuscon 85-74. A UCLA win would create a three way race for the title along with Washington, although the Huskies would be a game back. Washington hosts in-state rival Washington St tomorrow. Arizona has additional wins over New Mexico St, Oklahoma, NC State, Oregon, Cal twice, Stanford twice, Arizona St twice, Washington St twice, Washington, and USC. They have losses to Kansas, BYU, Oregon St, and Washington in addition to the USC loss. UCLA has been a little streaky this season. They started off 3-0, lost 4 in a row, won 6, lost 2, won 4, lost at Arizona, won 6, lost at Cal last Sunday, and then beat Arizona St at home 71-53 Thursday night. UCLA has additional losses to Villanova, VCU, Kansas, Montana, Washington, and USC in addition to the Cal and Arizona losses. The Bruins have wins over BYU, Washington St, Oregon St twice, Oregon twice, Cal, Stanford twice, Arizona St twice, and St. John’s.
UCLA leads the overall series 47-35, including 29-13 in Westwood. Arizona has won 15 of the last 27 in the series. Arizona is 4-2 in the last 6 straight up against the Bruins, and 3-2-1 ATS. All six games have gone over the total recently. UCLA is 19-7 ATS in home games against teams with winning records the last 3 seasons. UCLA is 10-21 ATS on one day or fewer rest the last 3 years.
Arizona sophomore forward Derrick Williams is listed as probable with a finger injury. He played 36 minutes against USC Thursday but was ineffective, scoring only 8 points on 3 of 11 shooting. Williams is a candidate for Pac-10 player of the year. He leads the Wildcats in almost every statistical category except assists. He is averaging 19.3 points a game, 8.2 rebounds, 1 assists, and 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks a game. Though he doesn’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers he has shot 62.8% from behind the arc. Guard Lamont Jones averages 9.6 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists a game. Guard Kyle Fogg is averaging 8.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists to lead the team and 0.9 steals a game. Forward Solomon Hill averages 7.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 0.9 steals a game. Arizona is outscoring opponents 78-67 this season. The Wildcats are shooting 47.5% from the field and 40.8% from 3-point range. Arizona opponents are shooting 43.1% from the field. The ‘Cats make 75.4% of their free throws. Arizona averages 35.5 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +5.4. Arizona averages 14.2 assists and 13.6 turnovers a game. They force 12.8 turnovers a game on defense. Arizona averages 2.8 blocks and 5.2 steals a game.
UCLA has no significant injuries right now. UCLA Guard Malcolm Lee averages 13.7 points to lead the team, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. UCLA is led by forward Reeves Nelson who is averaging 13.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists a game. He is the leading rebounder for the Bruins. Forward Tyler Honeycutt averages 12.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and leads the team in blocks with 1.9 a game. Center Joshua Smith averages 10.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1 block a game. Guard Lazeric Jones averages 10.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, and leads the team in assists with 3.7 and steals with 1.1 a game. UCLA is outscoring opponents 71-66 on the year. The Bruins are shooting 46.2% from the field and and 33.9% from 3-point range. Bruin opponents are shooting 41.9% from the field. The Bruins shoot 67.1% from the free throw line. UCLA averages 37.1 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +4.3. The Bruins average 15 assists and 15.2 turnovers a game. UCLA forces 12.4 turnovers a game on defense. UCLA averages 5.6 steals and 5.7 blocks a game.
These two teams are very similar statistically. The main difference is UCLA has much more balanced scoring with 5 players in double digit figures. Arizona depends on Williams to do the bulk of the scoring. If he struggles like he did against USC Thursday, then Arizona can be had. Arizona shot only 35.8% from the field in the loss to USC. if they don’t shoot better than that in this game UCLA will win easily.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot in 2011. Don’t miss out on any more winners this season.
