This article will take a look at the American League West’s teams. The Rangers are really the only team of relevance here, and the +115 set by Bodog speaks to that. They won the division by 9 games last year and there’s no reason to not expect a repeat performance. Odds are taken from Bodog’s baseball future’s betting.
Texas Rangers
Odds to Win World Series: 20/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 9/1
Odds to Win AL West: +115
2010: 90-72, 1st in AL West
When Jon Daniels took over the Rangers in 2005, he became the youngest GM in MLB history at age 28 and he had absolutely no experience to back him in his venture; just theories and an Ivy League education that he would employ to make over the Rangers and build a potential dynasty.
How did he achieve that in 5 years? Simple. He initiated one of the most intense scouting efforts in the MLB, farming the talent in Latin America and making trades for domestic players to build one of the strongest farm systems in the majors (possibly ever). In fact, in their 2010 World Series run, they were anchored by 2010 Rookie of the Year Neftali Perez as well as a host of other players whose talents were developed and worked in the farm system of the Rangers.
Will these strengths carry over in to 2011? Probably. The Rangers pitching staff struggled last year and the team led the league in bullpen innings. Despite that, they also led the league in opponent’s stranded runners, aiding the offense in building leads that the pitching staff could maintain, aided by the strong play in the field.
For as well as things unconventionally went for the pitching staff, it went even better for the hitters. The Rangers have long been known to be a powerful offensive team, driven by strong average hitters and power hitters that combine to form a potent scoring combination. Acquiring Vladimir Guerrero only further strengthened this. The team led the majors in batting average and ranked in the top 5 in most other offensive statistical categories. They did this despite manager Ron Washington employing the same (outdated) strategy of employing small ball hitting.
Of course, nothing helped more than Josh Hamilton coming into his own and become a legitimate superstar. Hamilton hit an outstanding .359 from the plate while belting 32 homers. His on base percentage was .410 and his WARP was 6.9 – very high. Hamilton combined with right handed batters Vlad Guerrero, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler to provide a strong punch in the top of the Rangers’ batting order.
The Rangers have set themselves up to maintain this level of success indefinitely. Daniels realized to build a successful team that can compete without spending absurd amounts of money like the Yankees requires building a farm system that can consistently replenish the starters of the major league team as they age, get traded, and retire.
Oakland A’s
Odds to Win World Series: 30/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 11/1
Odds to Win AL West: +195
2010: 81-81, 2nd in AL west
One would be hard pressed to find a .500 team with a situation as depressing as the A’s. Playing in an outdated and antiquated stadium that draws few fans, the primary goal of the A’s at this point isn’t winning a Pennant. They just want a new stadium that compares to the other facilities in the majors and is fan friendly enough to draw a crowd.
There are a few positives that could be extracted from it all, though. Despite having the third lowest payroll in the league, they DID maintain a .500 record, at least managing to stay competitive in the AL West, as their second place finish to the Rangers was their highest placing since 2006. Unfortunately, they were no where close to the Rangers, finishing 9 games back for the widest margin of separation between first and second place in a division in the entire major leagues. Beyond that measure of success, they also finally managed to rid themselves of Eric Chavez’s albatross $66 million contract. Chavez’s WARP was a pathetic 0.5 and he cost the team $43 million, nearly 18% of their total payroll since 2006.
Really, the stadium problem could not be any bigger. It cost the team a chance at retaining Adrian Beltre and owner Lew Wolff simply said in a depressed tone, “The facility’s a hurdle. It’s a fact.” At this point, it looks like moving the team (possibly to San Jose) is the only option for the A’s.
Looking at the A’s performance ON the field for last season, there are some positives that can be drawn. The A’s led the league in run prevention and they also led the league in SNLVAR (Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted value above replacement). They also had two of the better starting pitchers in the league in Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Dallas Braden (who pitched a perfect game). The Ben Sheets experiment was a horrible failure, but many expected that as he was coming off a major surgery and in overcompensation he ended up tearing his flexor tendon. The bullpen was pretty bad, as they dropped from 3rd to 11th in WXRL.
Obviously, with a relatively strong pitching staff, something is seriously wrong with the offense for the team to pose no threat to the Rangers. Playing in one of the most pitcher friendly park skews the statistics, but there were true few bright spots as it was. The one bright spot in the offense was the base running, as the A’s finished third in the league in stolen bases with 156 and they did so at a league best 80.4% success rate. For Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, and Cliff Pennington, that success rate climbs to 85%, and the trio accounted for 111 of the 156 stolen bases.
It’s going to take more than stolen bases for the A’s to have a chance this year, unfortunately, and until they get a suitable stadium, they are going to struggle with attendance which will only further hinder their ability to sign big name free agents and pull them out of the perennial mediocrity to which they have become accustomed.
Los Angeles Angels
Odds to Win World Series: 25/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 12/1
Odds to Win AL West: +225
2010: 80-82, 3rd in AL West
The Angels had their run. It now appears that run is over. The team finished below .500 for the first time since 2003, and there really doesn’t appear to be any good reason to expect a substantial increase in wins from last season, given the fact that the roster has changed little and the Rangers have continued to improve themselves to the injury of the Angels.
Most of the reason the Angels regressed so much can be attributed to the trio of free agents that left the team. They lost lead off hitter Chone Figgins, slugger Vlad Guerrero, and pitching ace John Lackey, all of whom had been instrumental in the colossal success of the 2009 season, a season in which the Angels led the majors in runs scored (though they also gave up the most runs). As good as 2009 was, the change was bad in 2010 when the team’s runs dipped to 681, the lowest total since 1992 and the team’s true batting average went down from .283 to .265. It’s hard to maintain the same level of success when things fall off that bad.
Really, the offense regressed in all facets, though. The only “improvement” was the increase in home runs (37.7% of their runs came from homers, fourth highest in the majors), but it was at the loss of the contact hitting that the team was so known for during their successful run over the past decade. As if their luck weren’t bad enough, they also had to deal with the freak injury of Kendry Morales, who somehow found a way to break his leg during a post game celebration on the mound. After Morales’ injury, the run scoring went down from 4.4 a game to 4.1. It was a death blow to the Angels. Morales’ replacement, Mike Napoli, ended up having a pitiful year, hitting .238 from the plate (though he did slam a ridiculous 26 homers as reward for sacrficing his discipline; if you miss the sarcasm there, I’m sorry). It wasn’t just Napoli, though. The entire Angels infield went haywire, as their batting average dipped from .289 to a horrid .243.
The pitching was at least decent. It improved from 2009, but it wasn’t enough given the lack of run production from the struggling offense. Jared Weaver led the league in strikeouts and finished 5th in ERA (3.01), while also setting a career high in innings pitched (224.1). Ervin Santana came back strong from injury and they also received strong contributions from Joel Pinero, Dan Haren, and Tyler Skaggs. Scott Kazmir was a huge disappointment though, as his shoulder never seemed to bounce back to the form it was in during his days in Tampa. The bullpen was fair, but Brian Fuentes never panned out the way the Angels had hoped.
Relief from their hitting woes is still years away. They’re waiting patiently on Mike Trout, who is still 19 but is going to be one of the better power hitters in the next few years when he makes his arrival. Until Trout and Mark Trumbo (led the minors in home runs with 36) make their way to the majors, the Angels simply aren’t going to have enough fire power offensively to make a push for anything other than a .500 record.
Seattle Mariners
Odds to Win World Series: 100/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 50/1
Odds to Win AL West: +1800
2010: 61-101, Last (4th) in the AL West
Things appeared to be taking an upturn for the Mariners in 2009. The team finished eight games over .500 and their fielding and pitching was among the best in the majors. Sadly, however, despite the strength of the fielding, the hitting was near absent, as the Mariners posted a 75-87 Pythagorean record and fans could sense the milk the Mariners were feeding fans was about to turn to poisonous cottage cheese. The Mariners offense was about to be record breaking for futility in the next years to come, as it was already struggling badly just to keep them competitive.
The Mariners went from an 8 game above .500 team to a 40 game below .500 team in just one season. How? Mainly through too much focus on defense and absolutely no attention given to run scoring. Besides boring fans, this method of “success” is not really relevant in today’s modern game; teams need to score a decent number of runs to win today. Russell Branyan, the team’s second best hitter had been allowed to walk during the off season and GM Bill Bavasi went on to continue with his one sided philosophy by signing Eric Byrnes and Jack Wilson, both defensive standouts that can’t hit worth a lick. In fact, the team went on to score the fewest runs since the 1971 Angels, hitting just 71% of the league average in runs. Their production from the DH spot was particularly troubling as they ranked as the seventh worst all time performance since the invention of the DH spot.
Were things expected to be this bad? No. Chone Figgins, Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Lopez, Casey Kotchman, Michael Saunders, Milton Bradley, Adam Moore, Jack Wilson, and Rob Johnson all performed well under their projected PECOTA stats for the season. Such widespread failure is nearly unprecidented, and for the Mariners to even become a true mediocre team (rather than a horrible team as they are now), they are going to have to get reliable production from the mentioned disappointments here.
