Last article we took a look at the AL East and the teams’ prospects towards winning Pennants and division titles. This time around we’ll take a look at the AL Central, which is not nearly as top heavy and dominant as the East, which features three of the better teams in the league, never mind the AL. Odds and Bets are taken from Bodog.
Minnesota Twins
Odds to Win World Series: 20/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 9/1
Odds to Win AL Central: +150
2010: 94-68, 1st in AL Central
For a long time, the Twins had been looked at as a model of how to build a small market team and maintain consistency despite a consistently low payroll. Things changed when they moved to their new ballpark. Bolstered by a rapid increase in ticket sales, the Twins were able to go spend wild and bring in a number of free agents, eventually ballooning their once meager payroll to $101 Million, something that was once thought impossible for the small market Twins.
As would be expected by a team spending so much money, the expectations increased exponentially with the new payroll. These expectations were thwarted when the Twins were swept in decisive fashion by the Yankees in the AL Division Series, marking the fifth time in a row that the Twins playoff hopes had been dashed by the Yankees.
It’s been a solid 20 years since the Twins have won a World Series, but fans think the next might be right around the corner with the team finally able and willing to spend the money it takes to field a contending roster. They did reach the post season 6 times in 9 years even with a meager payroll; how much more realistic is contention given a $100 million payroll? Moreover, can’t they at least continue to win division titles indefinitely in a notoriously weak division?
The Twins have nice assets in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and they recently signed the 2009 MVP Mauer to a beastly $184 Million extention that will take effect this fall, only further solidifying the team for years to come. The 28 year old Mauer is sitting dead in his prime and hit .328 last season with a .402 on base percentage.
The Twins certainly have the offensive strength to make a push for another playoff appearance, but their pitching is weak, which may ultimately end up being their downfall. They have no true ace and Francisco Lirano is still very much plagued by the question marks that follow a major surgery for a pitcher.
The Twins might end up being a case of a team that is very good but never quite good enough. They still have no idea how they are going to get past the Yankees and until they acquire a strong enough pitching staff to handle the Yankees’ strong hitters, they probably won’t be much more than a pretender, rather than a contender.
Chicago White Sox
Odds to Win World Series: 20/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 11/1
Odds to Win AL Central: +160
2010: 88-74, 2nd in AL Central
It’s rare that you can take a team as intrinsically good as the White Sox and just flat out and coldly write them off, but with the emergence of the aforementioned Twins, doing so would not be completely without realistic reservations. After years of building a team designed to compete within the AL Central — ignoring the Yankees and Red Sox at their own ignorant peril — the White Sox now find themselves outclassed and saddled with a heavy payroll, leaving little wiggle room for any marked improvement.
For a team that has made what appear to be a litany of lateral movements in trades, gaining little and sacrificing little, the White Sox sure shot themselves in the foot a number of times, not the least of which was cutting ties with Jim Thome just to have him come back with the Twins to punish and murder his former team. Ozzie Guillen has long been preaching “small ball,” focusing on driving runs around rather than the occasional homer, and he tried to structure his team in accordance with that philosophy, only to find it was ineffective against their opponents in the AL Central, and indeed the entire AL.
This method of building runs the “old fashioned way,” through base running and tactical hits, had been successful for the White Sox from 2005-2008, but now is only producing moderate successes. For all this method, they invested heavily in Juan Pierre, who for as “decent” as he is, is entirely outclassed at the plate by almost every other left fielder in the majors. The White Sox, for all they put into that style of play, still only finished 9th in the league in True Average, and that was mostly due to the fact that Paul Konerko had his best offensive season of his career by leaps and bounds, not due to Pierre’s lackluster season which was still deemed a success by many pundits.
The question then is not whether the White Sox can contend; they can’t, but rather whether their solid pitching staff will be enough to allow them to even remain competitive. And by “competitive” I of course mean compete with the Twins, and given the Twins’ radical “makeover” (as aided by the income of their new stadium), contention for the White Sox seems to be an absurd pipe dream, even the the most delusional White Sox fans.
Detroit Tigers
Odds to Win World Series: 25/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 12/1
Odds to Win AL Central: +200
2010: 81-81, 3rd in AL Central
Unlike the White Sox, who have little chance of contending, the Tigers for noncontenders are rather pleased with their current state of affairs, coming off a .500 season that was actually a remarkable success given the state of their roster, one bloated with bad contracts, aging veterans, and underperforming role players.
The solution was one that most fans detested. The Tigers dealt their two most appealing players, two players working on affordable contracts and making all star teams, Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson. The trades netted the Tigers center field prospect Austin Jackson and pitcher Phil Coke, as well as two strong arms in Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth. These four players are cheaper, and with the exception of Coke, younger than the players that were shipped out, and lined up the Tigers with a nice host of prospects to fill their future plans.
The future turned out to be a much sooner time than expected. All four players acquired performed brilliantly, especially Austin Jackson, who contended for rookie of the year. All factors considered, a team with an average record performed quite average in most categories statistically, but still pleased their fan base with a team that was far more competitive than was expected, especially after jettisoning their two best players for all prospects and young talent. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean this is a team worth placing a speculative bet on. They are still a few years away from being able to make any kind of real run and this season will be more about developing and forming a nucleus that can compete and remain atop the AL for years to come.
Cleveland Indians
Odds to Win World Series: 125/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 55/1
Odds to Win AL Central: +2000
2010: 69-93, 4th in AL Central
After coming within one win of winning a pennant in 2007, the Indians proceeded to take the fast track to nowhereville. With CC Sabathia poised to become a free agent at the end of the year, the Indians decided not to wait for him to walk, but rather to reel in as many prospects as they could for the aging ace. They continued this trend for the rest of the season and off season, dealing all their established talent — 17 players in total — for 29 “prospects,” a term I use liberally since not all of the prospects brought in were young, or even real prospects to begin with.
And so, in a short period of time, the Indians went from being contenders to nobodies, with only two players on their roster born before 1982 (Travis Hafner and Shelly Duncan [who?]). Moreover, outside of Hafner, the Indians are committed to only two players beyond this season, and both are team options that will probably not be picked up (though in the case of Sizemore, maybe they should) in Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona. For two players that were supposed to be at the center of the rebuilding effort, it shows how quickly players and teams fate can change. Carmona never quite ascended to prominence as a pitcher as the Indians had planned and Sizemore injured his knee and was robbed of the quickness that made him effective on the base path and in the field.
Two of the prospects acquired have proven themselves to be premier talents. Right fielder Shin-Soo Choo and catcher Carlos Santana have emerged as true talents that a team can be built around. What’s even better for the Indians is that they acquired 19 young pitchers in the 16 trades made, and in addition to drafting Alex White (2009 pick) and Drew Pomeranz (5th overall in 2010), they have formed a solid crew to formulate a pitching staff from in the next few seasons.
The Indians are doing a remarkable job of acquiring POTENTIAL. But teams can’t win on potential, as we all know too well, and to place any bet at all, even the most speculative, on the Indians would be money well wasted.
Kansas City Royals
Odds to Win World Series: 150/1
Odds to Win AL Pennant: 75/1
Odds to Win AL Central: +2500
2010: 67-95, Last (5th) in AL Central
Much like the Indians, the Royals have scrapped all hope of contending (or even competing) in favor of building a farm system that could drive the club into relevance in the future (who knows how long from now?). Like many destitute teams, the Royals have attempted to draw inspiration from the example set by the Tampa Bay Rays, and have placed all their hope in their draft picks and acquired prospects.
I suppose the real question at this point is whether the Royals could field a team of their own minor leaguers that would beat their professional team. It’s not as absurd as it might sound. As it is, their minor league third baseman Mike Moustakas is far better than any infielder they have at the major league level and should be competing for the starting spot at third base by the end of the season.
Not only do the Royals have Moustakas and a vast collection of solid hitters coming up, but they also have four left handed stud pitchers at the double-A level that could be ready to contribute soon. As good as all this sounds, we’re still talking about a team that is a ridiculous long shot to win anything and it would be a huge stretch to imagine this team even winning half of its games.
