American Idol is the number one reality show on TV for five years running. Last Tuesday 27 year-old Casey James from Ft. Worth, Texas was eliminated. Though all four judges gave positive feedback after his performance on Tuesday, America voted. Americans vote and Americans also wager. After James’ elimination, a huge shift occurred in the American Idol lines and Crystal Bowersox, a favorite through most of the season is now the underdog going into the finale of American Idol: Season Nine. The show is now down to its final two contestants – two 24 year-olds both of whom are open to prosperous careers after the show.
Currently there are two contestants left on American Idol. The finalists left in the ninth season of the show are Crystal Bowersox, a 24 year-old from Elliston, Ohio and Lee Dewyze, a 24 year-old from Mt. Prospect, Illinois. Episodes air Tuesdays and Wednesdays at 8:00 / 7:00PM Central on Fox. Catch the next episode this Tuesday, May 25.
Lee Dewyze is the favorite to win. Pinnacle Sports posts odds on Dewyze at -225 to win and +201 not to win. With only two distinct underlying bets, the other contestant is not given the +201 odds to win on Pinnacle.
5 Dimes American Idol odds are Lee Dewyze -220 and the field (Crystal Bowersox) +180.
Crystal Bowersox was the favorite to win before this week’s episode, but a spectacular performance of “Hallelujah” by Dewyze put him in the lead.
Bowersox was the favorite all along since books started to post American Idol odds in early April. The Pinnacle opening line on Bowersox was 6-1. Bettors who chose Dewyze to win when Pinnacle first opened the line would have locked in 55-1.
Lee Dewyze, a former paint salesman, is the favorite across the board. Odds have been continually shifting in his favor throughout the season while Bowersox took a huge swing in odds from the -140 favorite before Tuesday to the +180 to 2-1 underdog as of today.
This shift in odds is a major one as America prepares for what can be called the Super Bowl of American reality television. Richard Gardner, the prop lines manager at Bodog commented to the Off Shore Gaming Association’s The Insider that as Lee has been creeping up to be a favorite to win, Crystal has been voted near the bottom. Gardner says maybe her following is not as big as it used to be. Bodog’s prop lines manager also notes, “After Kris Allen pulled the huge upset last year, who knows how America will vote next week.”
Though odds makers use voting data to put up American Idol prop lines, it is much less of a science than odds for sporting events. American Idol odds are an exotic prop bet that has seen growing popularity in the last few seasons. Voting data and line movement from the public’s betting activity define the betting lines for the most popular reality TV show, yet as Richard Gardner of Bodog says, who knows how America will vote next time.
