Baltimore Orioles (6-4) AT New York Yankees (6-4)
April 14, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Runline:  NYY -1.5 +110, BAL +1.5 -130
Current Runline:  NYY -1.5 +100, BAL +1.5 -120
Opening Moneyline:  NYY -176, BAL +156
Current Moneyline:  NYY -187, BAL +177
Opening Total: 10.5
Current Total:  10.5

SP:  BAL- J. Arrieta, NYY- P. Hughes

Phil Hughes experienced a lot of success last season when he recorded 18 wins, losing only 8, and posted a 4.19 ERA.  His PECOTA projection is more impressive in terms of ERA, as Baseball Prospectus expects a 3.74 ERA from Hughes, though he is only projected to pitch 121 innings, 55 less than last season.  In his first six starts last season, he went 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA.  After that point, he was quite average, as in his remaining 15 games he posted a much less impressive 4.98 ERA, as opposing batters hit 1.6 Homers per 9 innings pitched.

After mid May, most of his pitching appearances were not “quality starts” (6+ IP, < 3 runs scored).  The problem for Hughes is that he is excellent on the road (3.47 ERA) and pretty bad at home (4.66 ERA).  Also at home, he gave up a homer 1 of every 20 at bats.

These struggles were furthered in his last appearance, though it was on the road.  He allowed 11 runs and 3 home runs over 6 innings.  Friday, he was just as bad, lasting only two innings, while giving up 6 runs, though he did not receive a loss for the foul performance.

“It’s no fun to sit on a bad outing for four days, so I’m excited to get out there, get things going again and hopefully work on some things to get back where I need to be,” Hughes said. “I can’t afford to go out and throw two innings or four innings every start with the stuff I have. I have to turn it around.”

Part of the reason for the problems are a lack of heat on his fastball, which is only clocking in at 89.4 MPH, while last season he averaged 92.5 MPH.  Hughes did experience success against the Orioles last season when he went 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA in three starts.  He held the duo of Adam Jones and Nick Markakis to 1 of 18 batting.  Markakis right now is in the midst of a 2 for 22 slump.

Jake Arrieta takes the mound for the Orioles, and while he hasn’t been good this season (1-1, 8.68 ERA), he did well last season against the Yankees as a rookie.  He won both starts against the Yankees and recorded a 3.65 ERA in the two games.  Last season on the road Arrieta went 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA.  Arrieta has yet to pitch to Alex Rodriguez, however.  Arrieta’s PECOTA projection predict a 9-9 season with a 4.43 ERA.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games and the Orioles are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.  Baltimore is also 10-5 SU in their last 15 games while the total has gone UNDER in 13 of their last 18 games.  The total has also gone UNDER in 7 of their last 8 on the road.  Baltimore is 4-1 SU in their last 5 on the road but 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against the New York Yankees.  The total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 9 against the Yankees and the Orioles are 4-19 SU in their last 23 games on the road against the Yankees.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of New York’s last 14 games.  The total has also gone OVER in 8 of their last 10 at home and the Yankees are 6-2 SU in their last 8 home games.  The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Yankees’ last 9 games against Baltimore.  The Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Orioles and the Yankees are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games at home against the Orioles.

Hughes may continue to struggle, which could be the demise of the Yankees.  Moreover, Baltimore’s Arrieta is a good pitcher to the Yankees lineup, which only further works in the underdog Orioles’ favor.