Tampa Bay Rays AT Minnesota Twins Double Header (Second Leg)
April 27, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST

Game 2 of double header:
Opening Moneyline:  MIN -133, TAM +123
Current Moneyline:  MIN -131, TAM +121
Opening Total:  7.5
Current Total:  7.5

SP:  TAM- Wade Davis, MIN- Francisco Liriano

Finally, after a terrible start from the pitching staff, things have begun to come together for the Tampa Bay Rays.  Wade Davis last shut out the Twins and Tampa Bay moved over .500 for the first time this season on Wednesday night.

The Tampa Bay Rays took 3 of 4 games from Minnesota earlier this month and held the Twins to 12 hits and a .234 average for the series.  In all four games, the Tampa Bay starter lasted at least 7 innings.  Davis allowed only one run and 4 hits in the second game.  Davis’ PECOTA projections call for an 11-9 season with a 4.12 ERA.

If the early season is any indication, Davis’ ERA could be in the mid 3.00s by the time the season ends, being realistic and reserved.  It is of course entirely possible he shifts in either direction quite drastically.  He has never won more than 12 games in a season and in seasons in which he pitched at least 100 innings, his ERA has never been lower than 3.84.  Davis came into the majors highly regarded though, and allowed the Rays to get rid of Scott Kazmir.  The problem has been for Davis that he has relied entirely too much on his fastball, which tops out at between 91 and 94 miles an hour.  His fly ball percentage (33.8%) was the fourth highest in the American League.  If he’s to fulfill any of his vast promise, he is going to have to learn to vary his pitches more.

The Twins are starting to show signs of life themselves, as well.  After opening the season 4-10, they have won 5 of their last 7 games and they beat the Indians 4-3 on Sunday in a rain shortened set.  “We got that first one out of the way,” Jason Kubel commented.  . “Hopefully we can just keep rolling.”  Kubel’s seventh inning double put the Twins on top.

Delmong Young is returning from injury but he has got off to a slow start this season; he has only no homers and only 6 RBIs .  Justin Morneau has documented struggles, as well, and hit 2 of 12 in Tropicana Field, but he did have 2 hits and 2 RBIs despite the poor BA.  Delmon Young is still a mere 25 years old and had a breakout 2010 season.  His power numbers increased, as he lowered his strikeout ratio at the same time.  He did only hit 6 homer runs at home last year, while totaling 15 on the road.  Delmon Young’s PECOTA projection calls for a .283 BA, .320 OBP, and 111 RBIs in 523 plate appearances.

Francisco Liriano is 1-3 this season with a 7.40 ERA.  He is 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA vs Tampa Bay, however, and in his lone outing against the Rays last season he gave up only 1 run and 4 hits while striking out 10 batters in seven innings of work.  The Rays won the game 8-6.

Liriano’s ERA was at 9.42 after losing his first three starts, and the Twins can’t win with him on the mound unless he starts lowering his ERA.  “We need him to get on a roll and start throwing the ball well,” manager Ron Gardenhire said. “(This is) a really good builder for him.”

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games and the Rays are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 15 road games and the Rays are 4-1 SU in their last 5 on the road.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games.  Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the Twins and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games on the road against the Twins, while the Rays are 7-15 SU in their last 22 road games against the Minnesota Twins.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Minnesota’s last 16 games and the Twins are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.  The total has also gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8 at home and the Twins are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against the Tampa Bay Rays.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games against the Rays and it has gone OVER in 4 of the last 5 at home against the Rays.  The Twins are 15-7 SU in their last 22 games at home against the Rays.

Given Liriano’s struggles, it’s somewhat surprising to see the Twins as the favorites.  He did pitch well against Tampa this year, but it’s a lot to speculate that he will pull out of that slump today necessarily.