Minnesota Twins (4-8) AT Tampa Bay Rays (4-8)
April 15, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST
Opening Runline: TAM -1.5 +170, MIN +1.5 -200
Current Runline: TAM -1.5 +155, MIN +1.5 -175
Opening Moneyline: TAM -125, MIN +105
Current Moneyline: TAM -133, MIN +113
Opening Total: 8.5
Current Total: 8.5
SP: MIN- N. Blackburn, TAM- W. Davis
Things just went from bad to worse for the Twins. Already struggling along at 4-8, they just sent their best player Joe Mauer to the DL. The Twins have dropped two straight and lost 4-3 in a 10 inning game on Thursday. The announcement that Mauer would be on the DL for 15 days was made after the game. Mauer had been struggling, batting .235 with only 4 RBIs.
“He’s going to go fly to Baltimore and see his doctor there, and then he’ll head home to start rehab of getting his body and his legs in shape,” manager Ron Gardenhire said. “I think they say it was bilateral leg weakness, which is causing all kinds of soreness. He’s compensating because of the surgery he had this winter.”
The Twins OBP is only .287 and they are averaging only 3.0 runs per game. Mauer’s PECOTA projections predict a .317 BA, 75 RBIs, 17 HRs in 585 plate apperances. Mauer’s injury will hurt those plate apperances and in turn affect his entire stats. The start is not good.
“You can’t panic,” said Gardenhire, whose team has dropped four of five. “You can’t worry about it. You just have to keep playing. You have to learn through those things and you just have to keep plugging away.”
Thursday, Minnesota’s Danny Valencia went 3 for 4 and gave the Twins a 3-2 lead with an RBI single. Morneau and Thome both went 2 for 5 from the plate. No Twins player homered. Tampa Bay’s Matt Joyce also went 3 of 4 with 2 RBIs and Sam Fuld went 2 of 5 from the plate (Fuld is hitting .375 over his 5 game hitting streak), and it was enough for the Rays to win the game 4-3. Johnny Damon’s walk off homer clinched the game for Tampa Bay. While Damon is batting only .217, he has homered 3 of his 9 hits. The Rays have now won 3 straight after beginning the season 1-7.
Minnesota starting pitcher Nick Blackburn allowed only one run, unearned, in a 1-0 loss to the Oakland A’s. Lifetime against the Rays, Blackburn is 2-2 with a 6.10 ERA and he is 1-1 with a 9.82 ERA at Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay will send Wade Davis to the mound, who is 0-2 with a 4.38 ERA. In his two outings, he received a total of 1.46 runs support from the offense. Davis’ PECOTA projections predict an 11-9 record with a 4.12 ERA. The ERA is close to his actual ERA, but the lack of run support may hinder what would have been a good record. “He’s tough,” White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski said. “He changes speeds very well. He mixes up his pitches very well.”
Some betting trends:
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 7 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 on the road and the Twins are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games on the road. Minnesota is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at Tampa Bay and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota’s last 9 games on the road in Tampa Bay.
The Tampa Bay Rays are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 21 of the last 25 games. Tampa Bay is 4-9 SU in their last 13 games and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 13 Rays’ home games. Tampa Bay is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games at home and the Rays are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against the Twins. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 9 games at home against the Twins.
Given the fact the Twins are missing Mauer and they are already struggling, things really don’t look good. Wade Davis has actually been pitching better than his ERA and record suggest, so if he can keep the Twins close to shutout, look for the Rays to cruise to victory.
