Los Angeles Angels AT Boston Redsox
May 3, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline: BOS -150, LAA +130
Current Moneyline: BOS -152, LAA +142
Opening Total: 7.5
Current Total: 7
SP: LAA- D. Haren, BOS- J. Lester
Boston took game one of the series 9-5 yesterday (Mon), but the Red Sox still sit 2 games below .500, due mostly to their horrid start to the season. The Angels, conversely, sit 3 games above .500 at 16-13.
Boston has won 14 of the last 15 meetings between the teams, and they have won all 5 this season against the Angels. The Red Sox have hit .293 with 21 homers in the last 15 meetings, while scoring 97 runs and giving up a mere 46. In their last 8 at Fenway, they’ve been even better, hitting .322 with 13 homers and 60 runs.
Jon Lester won’t make life any easier on the Angels. In his last two starts against the Angels, he has recorded a 0.64 ERA with 13 Ks in 14 innings. He threw 6 scoreless innings and struck out 8 in a 4-3 victory…and the opposing pitcher was Dan Haren. Haren failed to record a quality start that game, pitching only 6 innings and giving up 4 runs (2 earned). In his last three starts, all wins, he has compiled a 1.35 ERA and allowed just 2 runs and 4 hits in 8 innings last time on the mound against Baltimore. Lester’s PECOTA projection predicted a 12-8 record with a 3.48 ERA. In addition to Lester’s solid pitching, this season against the Red Sox the Angels are hitting .200.
“He (Lester) was really good,” manager Terry Francona told the team’s official website, “and he needed to be because we had chances to spread it out and we didn’t. But he pitched so well, he gave us enough time where we finally did.”
“It was kind of a weird game. A couple of balls found holes, so it’s not like it was flying everywhere,” said Dan Haren, who has lost 3 straight now against the Red Sox. This year may be different, Haren is the AL leader in ERA with a 1.23 ERA, and he has a 4-1 record. His last start was obviously quality as well, giving up one unearned run adn 3 hits while pitching 7 innings in a 2-1 10 inning loss to the A’s. In his career against Fenway, he hasn’t been bad. He just hasn’t received a lot of run support, as his 3.81 ERA has rendered him still with a 1-4 record. Haren’s PECOTA projects a 15-8 record with a 3.19 ERA.
The Red Sox may be without hot hitting Jacoby Ellsbury who bruised his knee. Ellsbury was in the midst of an 11 game hitting streak, a span in which he has hit .383. David Ortiz has also been very good and has a .381 ERA with 5 HRs and 8 RBIs in his last 12 meetings against the Los Angeles Angels. Against Haren Ortiz is 7 of 20 with one triple and three home runs.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Angels’ last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Angels’ last 21 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA’s last 6 road games and the Angels are 9-3 SU in their last 12 on the road. The Angels are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Boston Red Sox and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Angels’ last 6 games against Boston. The Angels are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against the Red Sox.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 9 games and the Red Sox are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games. Boston is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Red Sox’s last 6 games against the Angels. Boston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 against the Angels and 7-1 SU in their last 8 home games against the Angels.
Tonight’s game will be a real pitcher’s battle. It’s indicated by the 7 run line, and both pitchers sport outstanding ERAs. If Boston is missing Ellsbury, it may hurt their run production, but with Haren on the mound, they won’t need many runs anyway.
