Minnesota Twins (S. Baker)  AT  New York Yankees  (I.Nova)
April 4, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Runlines:  +1.5, -160 (MIN)  / -1.5 +140  (NYY)
Opening Moneyline:  MIN +130 / NYY -150
Current Moneyline:  MIN +152 / NYY -162
Opening Total:  9.5
Current Total:  10

As Minnesota skipper Ron Gardenhire rationalized, facing the Yankees early in the year just to get past it may not be the best thing for his team.  “Some people say it’s great to get them out of the way, but… it might not be that great to get them out of the way,” said Gardenhire. “We just have to play – play the schedule out. We just want to survive and get to our home field.”

Minnesota already got off to a rough start in their series with the Blue Jays, dropping 2 of 3, and barely winning the one they did win.  Closer Joe Nathan gave up a run and got himself in a bases loaded situation before escaping with the victory, enabling the Twins to win 4-3.  “It was a situation where I was trying to do anything I could to get somebody out,” Nathan said. “Fortunately, I was able to get (Adam) Lind to swing at a breaking ball and get a groundball.”

Today’s starter Scott Baker should enable the Twins to remain competitive for sure.  Last year, he finished the season with 5 victories (5-0) in his last 10 starts, allowing only a 3.18 ERA during that span.  His last game at Yankee stadium was not as successful, though, as he gave up 5 runs and 10 hits in an 8-4 Twins loss.

New York’s starter Ivan Nova is a young starter at 24, but has shown flashes.  Last year he finished 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and he struck out 26 hitters in 42 innings.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games and they are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 road games and they are 2-8 SU in the last 10 on the road.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 8 games against the Yankees.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 against the Yankees on in Yankee Stadium.  Minnesota is 1-13 SU in their last 14 on the road against the Yankees, as well.

The total has gone OVER In 6 of New York’s last 7 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 5 at home.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8 against the Minnesota Twins and the Yankees are 17-2 SU in their last 19 against Minnesota.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Yankees last 6 games when playing at home against the Twins and the Yankees are 13-1 SU in their last 14 at home against the Twins.

Players to keep an eye on:

Denard Span (OF-MIN)

In 2008 and 2009 Span’s OBP was .390, giving the Twins a strong boost from the leadoff spot and he’s off to a good start again here in 2011, as he has 5 hits in 11 at bats, including one homer already, giving him a slugging percentage of .727, through three games.  He inked a $16.5 Million contract prior to 2010 and logged a disappointing year last year, but if he plays at all like he has the first few games this season, it will have been money well spent by the Twins.

Joe Mauer (C-MIN)

Mauer played two of the three games in the Jays series, picking up just 1 hit in 7 at bats.  Though a small sample size, it’s not the start Mauer would have hoped for.  He’s without argument the best catcher in the MLB, and even though he regressed from his ridiculously good 2009 last year, he still hit .328 with a .469 slugging percentage (down from .365 & .587).  For the Twins to stand strong in this series they are going to need Mauer to play at or near his MVP level.

Russell Martin (C-NYY)

Martin is off to a hot start after two underwhelming seasons.  While no one expects him to hit .455 for very long at all, he did hit a double and a homer in the three games against the Tigers last week.  His PECOTA projection lists him at .264 BA with a .370 slugging average.

Mark Teixeira (1B-NYY)

Teixeira got off to a fantastic start in his three games against the Tigers, homering in each game and hitting .333 for the series.  His PECOTA projections place his projected batting average roughly between his excellent 2009 campaign and his disappointing 2010, at .275.  He’s off to a good start to at least fulfilling those expectations, though a three game sample is hardly substantial enough to draw many conclusions upon.