Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California
Sunday, November 10, 2013, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Denver -7
Current Line: Denver -7 (+105)
Opening Total: 56 1/2
Current Total: 57 1/2
Opening Money Line: Broncos -280 / Chargers +230
Current Money Line: Broncos -265 / Chargers +235
Although longtime AFC West rivals the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers are in playoff contention as they meet Sunday in San Diego, there are bigger stories involved with this game. Last week, during the Broncos’ bye week, head coach John Fox was playing golf near his home in Charlotte, North Carolina when he was hospitalized after feeling light headed. He had to have his aortic valve replaced and had open-heart surgery last Monday. He will miss at least a few weeks and perhaps the rest of the regular season and/or playoffs. Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will serve as the interim coach until Fox returns. Del Rio is a former head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
As for the game itself, the 7-1 Broncos are in second place in the AFC West behind the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers are 4-4 this season and are tied with the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans. All three of those teams are a half game behind the 5-4 New York Jets for the last playoff spot in the AFC. San Diego and Denver have played 24 times since 2001 and each has won 12 games. The Broncos have won 3 straight against the Chargers after a 4 game winning streak by the Chargers. Denver won both meetings last year in San Diego 35-24 and in Denver 30-23. The teams will play in Denver this season on December 12 in a Thursday night game.
Denver’s only loss this season came at the Indianapolis Colts 39-33. The Broncos have home wins over the Baltimore Ravens 49-27, Oakland Raiders 37-21, Philadelphia Eagles 52-20, Jacksonville Jaguars 35-19, and Washington Redskins 45-21 two weeks ago, along with road wins at the New York Giants 41-23 and Dallas Cowboys 51-48. Denver is 4-3-1 ATS this season and all 8 games have gone over the total. The Broncos were 11 point home favorites against the Redskins and the total was 58.5.
The Redskins and Broncos were tied at 7 at halftime. The Redskins took a 21-7 lead in the third quarter with a 26 yard pick six. It looked like the Redskins might have been able to pull off the upset. However, Denver would score 38 unanswered points to win and cover 45-21. The Broncos scored 31 fourth quarter points capped off with a 75 yard pick six late in the fourth. Washington had 266 total yards including 154 passing yards. Denver had 446 total yards including 339 passing yards. The game featured 9 turnovers (5 by the Redskins).
Denver is outscoring teams 43-27 this season. The Broncos are #1 in scoring and #26 in points allowed. Denver is averaging 466.4 yards per game including 358.5 passing yards and 107.9 rushing yards. The Broncos lead the league in total and passing offense. Denver is allowing 380.6 total yards (#24 in the league) on defense including 299.1 passing yards and 81.5 rushing yards. The Broncos are #30 in the league in pass defense but #3 in rush defense. Denver is -1 in turnovers. The Broncos are 55/105 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 42/118. The Broncos have forced 22 sacks and allowed 11 this season. The Broncos have 4 defensive or special teams touchdowns this season and has allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. Denver is averaging 63 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 51.
Quarterback Peyton Manning has completed 71.2% of his passes for 2,919 yards with 29 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. manning has been sacked 11 times this season. He is the clear early favorite for the MVP. Manning is on pace to break Tom Brady’s NFL record of 50 touchdown passes in a season. Manning is probable with an ankle injury. Brock Osweiler is his back-up.
Running back Knowshon Moreno has 108 carries for 456 yards with 8 touchdowns, along with 29 catches for 287 yards and a touchdown. Moreno is probable with an ankle injury. Ronnie Hillman has 40 carries for 182 yards with a touchdown, along with 12 catches for 119 yards. Montee Ball has 55 carries for 177 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 catches for 27 yards.
Receiver Demaryius Thomas has 48 catches, 685 yards and 6 touchdowns. Eric Decker has 46 catches, 669 yards and 3 touchdowns. Decker is probable with a toe injury. Wes Welker has 50 catches, 555 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury. Julius Thomas has 39 catches for 451 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is also probable with an ankle injury. (Perhaps the Broncos’ training staff needs to tape ankles better as three offensive linemen are also probable with ankle injuries.) Trindon Holliday has a kick return and a punt return for touchdowns. Six offensive linemen are listed on the injury report, and the unit took another hit this week when guard John Moffitt suddenly retired citing concerns for his health.
San Diego is coached by Mike McCoy in his first season. He was the offensive coordinator for the Broncos last season. The Chargers are 4-3 but could easily be 7-1. They lost to the Houston Texans 31-28 at home despite leading 28-7 in the third quarter. The Chargers then won at the Philadelphia Eagles 33-30 before losing at the Tennessee Titans 20-17. San Diego hosted the Dallas Cowboys and came back from a 21-10 deficit to win 30-21. The Chargers lost at the Oakland Raiders 27-17, and then beat the Indianapolis Colts 19-9. The Chargers beat up on the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars 24-6 two weeks ago before their bye. Last week, San Diego lost on the road to the Redskins 30-24 in overtime. The Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS this season and the total is 4-4. San Diego was a 1 point underdog against Washington and the total was 49.5.
San Diego would take a 14-7 lead into halftime at Washington though. Washington scored 17 straight points to open the second half and took a 24-14 lead with 6:59 left in the fourth. San Diego scored with 4:10 left to pull within 24-21. After a Redskins punt with 2:10 left, San Diego took over at their own 8 yard line.
The Chargers drove down the field and appeared to score the go ahead touchdown on a six yard pass from Phillip Rivers to Danny Woodhead. However, officials reversed the call after replays showed Woodhead’s foot knocked over the pylon and the ball never crossed the plane. The Chargers had first and goal at the one with 21 seconds left and two timeouts. However, they were unable to score a touchdown and had to settle for the game tying field goal with 3 seconds left. In overtime, the Redsksins won the toss and took over from their own 22 yard line. Washington drove the length of the field and won the game on a 4 yard touchdown run from Darrel Young. Young had 3 rushing touchdowns Sunday despite having only 2 carries all season before the Chargers’ game.
Washington had 500 total yards including 291 passing and 209 rushing yards. San Diego had 410 total yards including 341 passing yards. Each team had 7 penalties. The Chargers had two turnovers and the Redskins had one, but it was a pick six in the end zone.
San Diego is outscoring teams 24-22 this season. The Chargers are #16 in scoring and #12 in points allowed in the NFL. On offense, San Diego is averaging 403.8 yards per game including 300 passing and 103.8 rushing yards per game. The Chargers are #6 in total offense and #4 in passing. On defense, San Diego is allowing 393.8 total yards per game, including 275.4 passing and 118.4 rushing yards. The Chargers are 23rd or worse in all three categories. The Chargers are -7 in turnovers this season. San Diego is 48/99 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/104. The Chargers have forced 20 sacks and allowed 12 this season. San Diego is averaging 33:23 minutes for time of possession. The Chargers are averaging 50 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 65. San Diego has allowed 3 defensive touchdowns this season and has one of their own.
San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is having his best season in years. He has completed 72.2% of his passes for 2,473 yards with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 46 rushing yards. He has been sacked 12 times. Running back Ryan Mathews has 117 carries for 480 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Danny Woodhead has 53 carries for 193 yards and a touchdown, along with 49 catches for 391 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ronnie Brown has 26 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown, along with 6 catches for 48 yards. Tight end Antonio Gates has 48 catches, 550 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Keenan Allen has 34 catches, 527 yards and 3 touchdowns. Eddie Royal has 26 catches, 341 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is out with a toe injury. Vincent Brown has 27 catches, 282 yards and a touchdown. Receivers Malcolm Floyd and Danario Alexander are both on IR. Nine defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.
Denver is 5-1 ATS in week 10, 6-2 in November, 6-2-1 on grass, 7-3-1 after a cover and against AFC West teams, 1-3-1 after a straight up win and against AFC teams. Four of the last five games in this series went over the total. The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five in this series.
San Diego is 6-0 ATS after a straight up win, 4-0 after failing to cover and against teams with winning records, 5-1 after rushing for 90 yards or less, 4-1 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 3-1-1 against AFC teams, 5-2-1 overall and on grass, 2-6-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 2-7 in November, and 1-6 against teams with winning road records. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in this series recently. The Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS against the Broncos in the last 14 meetings.
This should be a high scoring game with two explosive offenses and suspect defenses. Rivers and Manning should have field days against the secondaries of both teams. This seems like a lot of points though and even though the Broncos will deny it it has to be a distraction to have your coach in the hospital recovering from open heart surgery. Denver wins but it will come down to a late field goal.
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