Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes
Sun Life Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida
Thursday, October 27, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Miami -14
Current Line: Miami -13 1/2
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: Miami -650 / Virginia +475
Current Money Line: Miami -525 / Virginia +425
Though both Miami and Virginia are 4-3 this season, neither was expected to be. Virginia was expected to be one of the worst teams in the ACC but could be in line for a bowl bid under coach Mike London. Miami was expected to compete for the ACC Coastal title under first year coach Al Golden. However, they had several players suspended at the beginning of the season for various lengths of between one game and six. they are just now getting their full team back and have won 2 games in a row against quality teams North Carolina 30-24 and last week against Georgia Tech 24-7. The Hurricanes also have home wins over Ohio St 24-6 and Bethune-Cookman 45-14 along with losses at Maryland 32-24, and Virginia Tech 38-35 along with a home loss to Kansas St 28-24. Virginia has home wins over William & Mary 40-3, Idaho 21-20 in overtime, and 24-21 against Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers have losses at North Carolina 28-17 and home losses to Southern Miss 30-24 and last week against North Carolina St 28-14. Miami leads the series 5-3, including 2-1 in Miami. Virginia won last year in Charlottesville 24-19.
Virginia was a 3 point favorite on the college football betting line last week at home against North Carolina St. It was a game the young Cavaliers should have won on paper, but some growing pains have to be expected from a team that has already equaled its win total from last year. Virginia scored the first touchdown but North Carolina St scored 21 unanswered points to take control of the game. Virginia pulled to within 7 late in the third quarter. However, The Wolfpack had a 12 yard interception return for a touchdown to seal the 28-14 victory. Virginia had 249 total yards, including 125 passing yards, 12 first downs and 4 turnovers. Virginia quarterback David Watford was 4/16 passing with 89 yards, one touchdown and 3 interceptions, along with 3 carries for 12 yards. Michael Rocco was 7/19 passing for 36 yards, and a touchdown, along with 2 carries for 12 yards. North Carolina St had 345 total yards, including 114 rushing yards, 14 first downs and 2 turnovers.
Virginia is averaging 407.1 total yards a game and 24.9 points. Virginia is averaging 183.1 rushing yards and 224 passing yards a game. They have 18 turnovers and have allowed 8 sacks. The Cavaliers are 52/126 on third and fourth down conversions, and 21/25 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. Defensively, the Cavaliers are giving up 314.3 yards a game and 23 points. Virginia is holding opponents to 138.3 rushing yards and 176 passing yards a game. Virginia has forced 13 turnovers and 10 sacks. Cavalier opponents are 45/123 on third and fourth down conversions, and 17/23 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns.
Rocco is 109/182 passing with 1,186 yards, 4 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Rocco has 21 carries for 21 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Watford is 30/71 passing for 346 yards with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 15 carries for 44 yards. Running back Perry Jones has 113 carries for 576 yards and 2 touchdowns, and is also the teams’ third leading receiver with 27 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. Kevin Parks has 74 carries, 386 yards, and 7 touchdowns, and 5 catches for 38 yards. Clifton Richardson has 44 carries for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Kris Burd has 34 catches, 447 yards, and no touchdowns. Tim Smith has 18 catches for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns. Matt Snyder has 19 catches for 220 yards. Snyder is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Kicker Robert Randolph is 17/17 on extra points and 11/16 on field goals with a long of 48 yards. Three Virginia defensive players are listed as questionable or out along with 2 little used receivers.
Miami was a 2.5 point favorite last week at home against Georgia Tech. Miami completely shut down Georgia Tech’s triple option offense in the 24-7 win for the Hurricanes. Miami held the Yellow Jackets to 134 yards rushing when Georgia Tech had been averaging over 350 rushing yards a game. Georgia Tech only had 211 total yards and also had 3 turnovers. Miami recovered a fumble in the end zone for one of their touchdowns. Miami had 262 total yards, including 122 rushing yards, 14 first downs, and one turnover. Miami quarterback Jacory Harris was 8/23 passing for 140 yards and an interception. Running back Lamar Miller had 27 carries, 93 yards and a touchdown. Mike James also had a rushing touchdown. Receiver Tommy Streeter had 3 catches for 96 yards.
Miami is averaging 366.9 yards a game including 154.1 rushing yards and 212.7 passing yards a game. The Hurricanes are averaging 29.4 points a game. Miami has allowed 9 sacks and has 10 turnovers. The Hurricanes are 43/99 on third and fourth down conversions and 20/23 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. Miami is allowing 378.6 yards and 21.3 points a game. Miami has one of the worst rush defenses in the country giving up 179.4 yards a game, but the pass defense is giving up only 199.1 yards a game. The ‘Canes have forced 11 turnovers and 19 sacks. Miami opponents are 50/108 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/29 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. Miami has two defensive touchdowns this season.
Harris is 90/145 passing for 1,244 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, along with 25 carries for 18 yards. Miller has 137 carries for 799 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown. James has 50 carries for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 33 yards and a touchdown. Streeter has 21 catches for 428 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Receiver Travis Benjamin has 26 catches, 350 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Allen Hurns has 18 catches for 286 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Jake Wieclaw is 26/26 on extra points and 8/9 on field goals with a long of 43 yards. Miami has numerous players on the injury report due to suspension or injury including 9 defensive players. The defensive line is especially banged up with 7 players listed as questionable doubtful or out.
Miami is 4-3 against the Spread this season and the total is also 4-3 in those games. Virginia is 2-5 ATS and 6 of the 7 games have gone under the total this season. The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, 3-7 in October, 2-6 in Thursday games, 3-9 in conference games, 1-4 following a straight up loss, 1-4 versus teams with winning records, and on grass, 1-5 on the road, and overall. The Hurricanes are 4-1 against teams with winning records, 5-2 in Thursday games, 16-35-1 as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, including 9-25-1 at home, 16-40-1 as a home favorite, 3-8 following a cover, 5-14 at home versus teams with winning road records, and 2-6 at home.
Miami seems to have turned the corner and is finally playing up to their potential. I think Virginia has overachieved but they are a tough gritty team, that could cause some headaches for Miami. I like the Cavaliers to cover the 13.5 point spread.
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