Florida St Seminoles at Boston College Eagles
Alumni Stadium – Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Thursday, November 3, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Florida St -16
Current Line: Florida St -14 1/2
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening Money Line: FSU -615 / BC +485
Current Money Line: FSU -600 / BC +475
Florida St has won 3 games in a row since they went on a 3 game losing streak to make their record 5-3. At 3-2 in conference, they still have an outside shot of overtaking Clemson for the ACC Atlantic Division title. Florida St travels north to Massachusetts to take on the 2-6 Boston College Eagles Thursday night. Florida St is coached by Jimbo Fisher and has home wins over Louisiana Monroe 34-0, Charleston Southern 62-10, Maryland 41-16, and last week against NC State 34-0, along with a road win at Duke 41-16. The Seminoles have a home loss to Oklahoma 23-13, and 35-30 road losses at Clemson and Wake Forest, the two teams ahead of them in the Atlantic standings. Boston College is coached by Frank Spaziani, and has a home win over UMass 45-17 and last week at Maryland 28-17. The Eagles have a pair of 3 game losing streaks this season, with home losses to Northwestern 24-17, Duke 20-19, and Wake Forest 27-19, along with road losses at UCF 30-3, Clemson 36-14, and Virginia Tech 30-14. Florida St leads the series 5-4 against BC including 24-19 last season in Tallahassee.
Last week, Florida St hosted NC State. The game was never close as the Seminoles dominated every phase of the game in a 34-0 rout. Florida St easily covered the 18.5 point spread. The Seminoles had 444 total yards including 321 passing yards from quarterback E.J. Manuel who had 2 touchdowns and an interception. Florida St held the Wolfpack to 166 yards and 12 first downs. NC State had 3 turnovers.
Florida St is averaging 432.8 total yards a game and 35.6 points a game. The Seminoles are averaging 306.4 passing yards and 126.4 rushing yards a game. The Seminoles have 14 turnovers and have allowed 23 sacks. Florida St is 44/93 on third and fourth down conversions. Florida St is 28/32 scoring in the red zone but have only 20 red zone touchdowns. Florida St is giving up 277.1 total yards a game and only 16.9 points. FSU is allowing 78.5 rushing yards and 198.6.4 passing yards. They are ranked in the top 12 in all categories except passing defense which is #32. The Seminoles have forced 9 turnovers and 29 sacks. FSU opponents are 48/134 on third and fourth down conversions, and 19/22 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. The Seminoles are averaging just over 8 penalties for 70 yards a game. FSU has one defensive touchdown this season.
Manuel is 130/197 passing with 1,776 yards, 13 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 52 carries for 143 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. He missed the second half of the Oklahoma game and the Clemson game with a shoulder injury, and was replaced by Clint Trickett. Trickett is 44/72 passing with 675 yards, 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. James Wilder, Jr., Chris Thompson, and Devonta Freeman are the leading rushers but none has more than 305 yards combined in the 8 games. Freeman has 3 rushing touchdowns, and Thompson & Wilder each have one. Thompson is out for the season with a back injury. Six other Seminole running backs have a rushing touchdown. Receiver Rodney Smith has 27 catches for 468 yards with 3 touchdowns. Rashad Greene has 26 catches for 457 yards with 6 touchdowns. Greene is probable with an ankle injury after missing the last two games. Kenny Shaw has 26 catches 308 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Bert Reed has 17 catches for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receivers Josh Gehres and Willie Haulstead are listed as questionable or out against Maryland. Kicker Dustin Hopkins is 33/33 on extra points and 14/16 on field goals with a long of 53 yards. Besides the injuries to the receivers and running backs Florida St has 7 other players on the injured list including 4 defensive players.
Last week, Boston College got their first ACC win this season at Maryland. The Eagles were 6.5 point underdogs on the college football betting line, but BC jumped out to a 21-3 lead at halftime. BC ended up winning 28-17. Boston College had 404 total yards including 372 rushing yards. Running back Rolandan Finch had 39 carries, 243 yards and 2 touchdowns. Andre Williams had 16 carries, 72 yards, and a touchdown. Alex Amidon also had a touchdown run. The Eagles overcame 4 turnovers in the win. Maryland had 2 turnovers in the loss. The Terrapins had 376 total yards, including 197 rushing yards.
Boston College is averaging 325.9 yards and 19.9 points. The Eagles average 179.4 passing yards and 169.5 rushing yards a game. Boston College has 14 turnovers and has allowed 18 sacks. The Eagles are 52/128 on third and fourth conversions, and 16/22 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. BC allows 421.8 yards and 25.1 points a game. The Eagles give up 252.2 passing yards and 169.5 rushing yards per game. BC has forced 9 turnovers and 6 sacks this season. Boston College opponents are 55/131 on third and fourth down conversions, and 27/34 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. Boston College has 2 defensive touchdowns this season.
BC quarterback Chase Rettig is 119/231 passing for 1,394 yards, 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and a rushing touchdown. Finch has 98 carries, 509 yards, and 3 touchdowns, and 7 catches for 73 yards. Williams has 90 carries, 405 yards, and 4 touchdowns, and 2 catches. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Receiver Colin Lamond has 26 catches, 443 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Bobby Swigert has 31 catches, 291 yards and a touchdown. Amidon has 13 catches, 117 yards, and a touchdown catch, along with 6 carries, 89 yards, and a touchdown. Kicker Nate Freese is 18/19 on extra points and 9/14 on field goals with a long of 52 yards. Boston College has 14 players listed on the injury report including 9 that are doubtful or out.
Boston College is 3-5 against the spread this season and the total is 1-6-1 in those games. Florida St is 4-4 ATS this season and the total is also 4-4 in those games. Boston College has covered the last two against Florida St. The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS on the road against teams with losing home records, 4-1 as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, 6-2 as a favorite, 7-18-1 after a straight up win of more than 20 points, 2-6 against teams with losing records, and 1-5-1 in Thursday games. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog of 10.5 points or more, 6-2 as an underdog, and 2-10 at home.
Florida St seems to have righted the ship and is playing up to the potential of their top 5 pre-season rankings. They should beat a rebuilding Boston College team rather easily even on the road. The only thing that concerns me is Florida St has arch-rival Miami coming up next week, and could overlook BC.
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