Miami Hurricanes at Florida St Seminoles
Doak Campbell Stadium – Tallahassee, Florida
Saturday, November 12, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN
Opening Line: Florida St -9 1/2
Current Line: Florida St -9
Opening Total: 50
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: FSU -355 / Miami +295
Current Money Line: FSU -350 / Miami +290
Although it has been a long time since these two teams were contending for national championships, and some of the luster has come off this match-up at least on a national level, this is still Miami and Florida St. The two teams are a combined 11-7 this season, but there is still a heated rivalry in this game. Most of the players are from Florida and played with or against each other in high school or perhaps even junior high and Pop Warner. Miami is 5-4 and 3-3 in conference under first year coach Al Golden. Florida St is coached by Jimbo Fisher, and is 6-3 overall and 4-2 in conference. The Seminoles are tied with Wake Forest in the Atlantic Division, and both teams are a game behind Clemson. However, Florida St has road losses to both Wake and Clemson by identical 35-30 scores, along with a home loss to Oklahoma 23-13. The Seminoles have won 4 straight games since that 3 game losing streak. FSU has home wins over Louisiana-Monroe 34-0, Charleston Southern 62-10, Maryland 41-16, and North Carolina St 34-0, along with road wins over Duke 41-16, and last week at Boston College 38-7. Miami has home wins over Ohio St 24-6, Bethune-Cookman 45-14, Georgia Tech 24-7, and last week against Duke 49-14, along with a road win at North Carolina 30-24. The Hurricanes have losses at Maryland 32-24, and Virginia Tech 38-35, along with home losses to Kansas St 28-24, and Virginia 28-21. Miami leads the series 31-24 against Florida St but the Seminoles have won 7 of the last 9 including 45-17 last year in Miami.
Miami was a 15.5 point favorite last week at home against Duke on the college football betting line. Miami jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead and never looked back in 49-14 rout to easily cover the spread. Miami had 467 total yards including 265 rushing yards. Hurricane quarterback Jacory Harris threw for 202 yards and 3 touchdowns, and also rushed for 22 yards. Running back Lamar Miller rushed for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mike James had 58 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns along with 2 catches for 43 yards. Duke had 342 total yards with 148 yards on the ground. Duke had 2 turnovers in the loss.
Miami is averaging 385.2 yards a game including 158.8 rushing yards and 226.4 passing yards a game. The Hurricanes are averaging 30.7 points a game. Miami has allowed 12 sacks and has 11 turnovers. The Hurricanes are 54/121 on third and fourth down conversions and 28/33 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns. Miami is allowing 384.7 yards and 21.2 points a game. The Miami rush defense gives up 179 yards a game, but the pass defense is giving up only 205.7 yards a game. The ‘Canes have forced 13 turnovers and 19 sacks. Miami opponents are 65/142 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/35 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. Miami has two defensive touchdowns this season.
Harris is 125/195 passing for 1,757 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, along with 35 carries for 62 yards. Miller has 173 carries for 1,016 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. James has 61 carries for 246 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. Tommy Streeter has 32 catches for 666 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Receiver Travis Benjamin has 32 catches, 460 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Allen Hurns has 22 catches for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kicker Jake Wieclaw is 36/36 on extra points and 8/10 on field goals with a long of 43 yards. Miami has numerous players on the injury report due to suspension or injury including 7 defensive players. The defensive line is especially banged up with 4 players listed as questionable, doubtful, or out.
Florida St was a 14.5 point road favorite last Thursday at Boston College. Florida St was up 28-0 at halftime and cruised to a 38-7 win. Florida St had 307 total yards including 180 passing yards from quarterback E.J. Manuel who threw a touchdown pass and no picks. Manuel also rushed for 37 yards on 16 carries with a touchdown run. Running back Devonta Freeman had 12 carries, 62 yards and 2 touchdowns. Lonnie Pryor also had a rushing touchdown for the Seminoles. Tight end Nick O’Leary had 3 catches for 87 yards. Bert Reed had a touchdown catch for FSU. Boston college had 207 total yards and 10 first downs. The Eagles had 4 turnovers in the game.
Florida St is averaging 418.8 total yards a game and 35.9 points a game. The Seminoles are averaging 292.3 passing yards and 126.4 rushing yards a game. The Seminoles have 15 turnovers and have allowed 26 sacks. Florida St is 48/104 on third and fourth down conversions. Florida St is 33/38 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. Florida St is giving up 269.3 total yards a game and only 15.8 points. FSU is allowing 80.2 rushing yards and 189.1 passing yards. They are ranked in the top 7 in all categories except passing defense which is #21. The Seminoles have forced 13 turnovers and 30 sacks. FSU opponents are 55/151 on third and fourth down conversions, and 20/24 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. The Seminoles are averaging just under 8 penalties for 64 yards a game. FSU has one defensive touchdown this season.
Manuel is 142/213 passing with 1,956 yards, 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 68 carries for 143 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. He missed the second half of the Oklahoma game and the Clemson game with a shoulder injury, and was replaced by Clint Trickett. Trickett is 44/72 passing with 675 yards, 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. James Wilder, Jr., Chris Thompson, and Devonta Freeman are the leading rushers but none has more than 367 yards combined in the 9 games. Freeman has 6 rushing touchdowns, and Thompson & Wilder each have one. Thompson is out for the season with a back injury. Six other Seminole running backs have a rushing touchdown. Receiver Rodney Smith has 28 catches for 486 yards with 3 touchdowns. Rashad Greene has 26 catches for 457 yards with 6 touchdowns. Greene is probable with an ankle injury after missing the last 3 games. Kenny Shaw has 26 catches 308 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He missed the last game but isn’t listed on the injury report for this game. Bert Reed has 20 catches for 224 yards and 4 touchdowns. Receivers Josh Gehres and Willie Haulstead are listed as questionable or out against Miami. Kicker Dustin Hopkins is 38/38 on extra points and 15/17 on field goals with a long of 53 yards. Besides the injuries to the receivers and running backs Florida St has numerous other players on the injured list including 4 defensive players.
Florida St is 5-4 against the spread and the total is 4-5 in those games. Miami is 5-4 ATS and the total is 6-3 this season. The last two games have gone over the total in this series. Miami is 5-1 ATS in road games against teams with winning home records, 4-1 in conference, overall, and on grass, 5-2 as an underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points, 7-3 as a road underdog, 16-35 following a cover, 8-20 after a straight up win of more than 20 points, 5-13 after scoring 40 points or more, and 1-4 after allowing 20 points or more. The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in conference games, as a favorite and overall, 4-1 as a home favorite, 7-3 after a cover, 2-5 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, 5-14 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, and 1-4 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Last year’s meeting between Florida St and Miami was a blowout win for the Seminoles 45-17. However, before that they had played 9 straight games decided by on score. These two teams usually play each other close and this should be no exception. I like Miami to cover the 9 point spread.
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