North Carolina Tar Heels at #2 Duke Blue Devils
Wednesday, February 13, 2013, 9:00 am Eastern, TV: ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium – Durham, North Carolina
Opening Line: Duke -10 1/2
Current Line: Duke -10 1/2
Opening Total: 152
Current Total: 151 1/2
Opening Money Line: Duke -700 / UNC +550
Current Money Line: Duke -600 / UNC +475
Although North Carolina is going through a rebuilding year and could even miss the NCAA tournament, the match-up with Duke is still one of the biggest games in college basketball this season. The 16-7 Tar Heels make the 11 mile trip to Durham to take on the 21-2 Blue Devils. Duke is 8-2 in the ACC and in second place behind 10-0 Miami. North Carolina is 6-4 and in fourth place behind 8-3 Virginia.
North Carolina leads the series 132-102 but Duke is 50-46 in Durham. Duke has won 5 of the last 7 games against North Carolina. The two teams split the series last year with each winning on the other’s home court. The home team is 5-9 in this series straight-up since 2007.
North Carolina is coached by Roy Williams. The Tar Heels have losses to Butler in the Maui Invitational, at Indiana, at Texas, at Virginia, Miami twice, including at Miami 87-61 Saturday, and at NC State. The Miami loss snapped a 3 game winning streak for North Carolina. The Tar Heels have key wins at Long Beach St, against Mississippi St in Maui, UAB, East Carolina, UNLV, Florida St, Maryland, Georgia Tech, at Boston College, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. UNC is 11-9 ATS and the total is 10-10 this season.
North Carolina is outscoring teams 78-69 this season. The Tar heels are #10 in scoring nationally. North Carolina is shooting 44.5% from the field and 36.7% from 3 point range. The Tar Heels make 64.8% of their free throws. UNC averages 41.7 rebounds per game and allows 33.7 per game. The Tar heels are #5 in rebounding but #302 out of 347 teams in rebounds allowed. UNC opponents’ are shooting 41% from the field and 35.2% from 3 point range. The Tar Heels are averaging 18 assists, 8 steals, 4 blocks, and 13 turnovers. UNC is second nationally in assists.
Forward James Michael McAdoo averages 14.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Guard/forward Reggie Bullock averages 14 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Guard P.J. Hairston averages 12.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. Leslie McDonald averages 12.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. Guard Dexter Strickland averages 7.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.4 steals. Forward Brice Johnson averages 7.3 points, and 4.2 rebounds per game. Guard Marcus Paige averages 7.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and a steal a game. Forward Joel James is doubtful with a concussion.
Duke is coached by Mike Krzyzewski. Duke’s two losses this came season came at Miami and North Carolina St. The Blue Devils have key wins over Kentucky in Atlanta, Minnesota, VCU, and Louisville in a tournament in the Bahamas, Ohio St, Temple in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Davidson in Charlotte, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest, Florida St Norht Carolina St, and at Boston College Sunday 62-61. The Blue Devils have won 5 straight games after the Miami rout. The Blue Devils are 13-10 ATS and the total is 12-10 this season.
Duke is outscoring teams 78-64 this season. The Blue Devils are #11 in scoring nationally. Duke is shooting 47.3% from the field and 40.9% from 3 point range. The Blue Devils are #27 in field goal percentage and #6 in 3 point shooting nationally. Duke makes 71.1% of their free throws. The Blue Devils average 35.2 rebounds per game and give up 32.6 per game. Duke opponents are shooting 40.9% from the field and 30.4% from 3 point range. Duke averages 16 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks, and 11 turnovers a game.
Forward Mason Plumlee averages 18.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Guard Seth Curry averages 16.8 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Forward Ryan Kelly is out indefinitely with a foot injury. He averages 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Guard Quinn Cook averages 11.8 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Guard Rasheed Sulaimon averages 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Tyler Thornton, Amile Jefferson, and Josh Hairston make up the rest of the rotation. Hairston will start in place of Kelly, but none of those three players average more than 4.6 points per game.
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in Wednesday games, and after failing to cover, 45-19-1 after a straight up loss, 2-5 in road games, and against teams with winning home records. The road team is 9-2 ATS in this series recently. The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Durham.
Duke is 5-0 ATS after failing to cover, and 4-0 in home games. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in this series, and the under is 6-2 in the last 8.
North Carolina looked to be hitting their stride until Miami destroyed them Saturday. Still, I think Carolina hangs tough in this game. Duke isn’t very deep without Kelly, and I don’t think Williams will let the Tar Heels suffer two beat downs in a row.
