Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels
Kenan Stadium- Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Saturday, September 17, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: North Carolina: -8 1/2 (all odds courtesy of bookmaker)
Current Line: North Carolina -10 1/2
Opening Total: 48 1/2
Current Total: 48
Opening Money Line: UNC -375 / Virginia +315
Current Money Line: UNC -380 / Virginia +320
In a series that dates back to 1892, Virginia and North Carolina meet for the 116th time this weekend. North Carolina leads the series 57-54-4 including 29-12-3 in Chapel Hill. North Carolina won last year in Charlottesville 44-10, but Virginia has won the last two meetings at North Carolina. Both teams are 2-0 heading into the ACC opener for both schools. Virginia is coached by Mike London and has wins over William & Mary 40-3 and at Indiana 34-31 last week. North Carolina is coached by interim coach Everett Withers, and has wins over James Madison 42-10 and Rutgers 24-22. Withers took over the program after Butch Davis was fired just before the start of fall camp for UNC.
Virginia was up 23-10 last week at Indiana going into the fourth quarter and held off a furious Hoosier rally to win 34-31. Indiana was up by 8 with less than 7 minutes to go, but Virginia scored the last 11 points of the game including a 23 yard field goal by Robert Randolph as time expired. Indiana covered the 7 point college football betting line. The game was sloppy on both sides with 7 combined turnovers, including 4 by Virginia. Indiana returned a fumble 54 yards for a touchdown to take a 24-23 lead in the fourth quarter. Neither team moved the ball that well, as Virginia had 360 total yards including 162 rushing yards. Indiana had 319 total yards including 148 rushing yards. Virginia had 19 first downs and the Hoosiers had 21. Randolph was 4/4 on field goals with a long of 44 yards and made both extra points.
Virginia is averaging 428 total yards a game and 37 points. Virginia is averaging 201 rushing yards a game. They have 4 turnovers and have allowed 2 sacks. The Cavaliers are 16/36 on third and fourth down conversions. In the good news/bad news department, the Cavaliers are 8/8 on field goal tries but it is never a good thing when you have more field goals than touchdowns. Virginia has only 7 touchdowns on the season. Defensively, the Cavaliers are giving up 244 yards a game and 17 points. Virginia is holding opponents to 98 rushing yards a game. Virginia has forced 5 turnovers and 4 sacks. Cavalier opponents are 10/32 on third and fourth down conversions.
Cavalier quarterback Michael Rocco is 36/58 passing with 365 yards, no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Rocco has 3 carries for 7 yards. Running back Kevin Parks has 27 carries, 151 yards, and 5 touchdowns, and 2 catches for 14 yards. Perry Jones has 34 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown, and is also the teams leading receiver with 7 catches for 102 yards. Clifton Richardson has 11 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown. Besides Jones 5 other Cavaliers have at least 4 catches this season. As mentioned earlier kicker Randolph hasn’t missed a kick in 14 tries with a long of 48 yards.
North Carolina statistically dominated Rutgers last week holding the Scarlet Knights to 244 total yards including a single rushing yard. North Carolina had 405 total yards including 273 passing yards. However 5 Tar Heel turnovers and 9 penalties allowed Rutgers to hang around. Rutgers pulled to within 2 points at 24-22 early in the fourth quarter but neither team scored for the rest of the game. Rutgers missed a two point conversion in the first half that would have tied the game. Rutgers turned the ball over on downs with two and a half minutes to go and North Carolina ran out the clock to seal the win. North Carolina had 4 sacks in the game and held Rutgers to 1 rushing yard.
UNC is averaging 433 yards a game and 33 points a game. The Tar Heels are averaging 275 yards passing per game. The Tar Heels have 6 turnovers and haven’t allowed a sack this season. Carolina is 10/19 on third down conversions this season and hasn’t attempted a fourth down yet. North Carolina has allowed only 227.5 total yards a game including just 30 rushing yards. North Carolina is allowing 16 points a game this season. UNC hasn’t forced a turnover yet, but they do have 9 sacks. Tar Heel opponents are 11/35 on third and fourth down conversions.
Carolina quarterback Bryn Renner is 42/49 passing this season with 550 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He also has 8 carries for 18 yards and 1 touchdown. Running back Giovani Bernard has 25 carries for 145 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 30 yards. Ryan Houston has 22 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown to go with 5 catches for 60 yards. Receiver Dwight Jones has 15 catches for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has more than double the catches of any other Carolina player.
North Carolina is 1-1 against the spread this season and the total has been split as well in the two games. Virginia is also 1-1 ATS and the total is 1-1 as well. Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 September games, 2-5 ATS in the last 7 as an underdog, 2-7 in the last 9 conference games, 1-4 in the last 5 road games, and 1-5 against a team with a winning record. North Carolina is 11-24 ATS in the last 35 as a home favorite, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 conference games, as a favorite, at home, and against a team with a winning record.
Both these teams have played a similar schedule, in that they both routed FCS schools from the same conference (William & Mary for Virginia, James Madison for UNC) and had close wins over rebuilding FBS teams (Indiana and Rutgers) in which they overcame turnovers and penalties. North Carolina is stout against the run, but I think Virginia can hang around and cover the 10.5 point number.
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