Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels
Kenan Stadium – Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Saturday, October 29, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: UNC -9
Current Line: UNC -7
Opening Total: 52
Current Total: 52 1/2
Opening Money Line: UNC -275 / Wake +235
Current Money Line: UNC -260 / Wake +220
Wake Forest and North Carolina meet for the 104th time Saturday. The Tar Heels lead the series 67-34-2, including 36-19-2 in Chapel Hill. Wake Forest has won 3 in a row against UNC but the teams haven’t played since 2007. A win for the Demon Deacons would give them a sweep over their Big 4 in-state rivals as Wake already has wins over North Carolina St 34-27 and last week at Duke 24-23. Wake Forest is coached by Jim Grobe, and is 5-2 this season and 4-1 in the ACC Atlantic Division. The Deacons also have home wins over Gardner-Webb 48-5, and Florida St 35-30, and a road win at Boston College 27-19. Wake has losses at Syracuse 36-29 in overtime, and at home to Virginia Tech 38-17. North Carolina, is coached by interim coach Everett Withers, and has home wins over James Madison 42-10, Rutgers 24-22, Virginia 28-17, and Louisville 14-7, along with a road win at East Carolina 35-20. The Tar Heels have losses at Georgia Tech 35-28, at home to Miami 30-24, and at Clemson 59-38 last week. The Tar Heels are 5-3 overall and 1-3 in the ACC Coastal division. UNC has lost 2 games in a row.
Wake Forest played at Duke last week, and the Demon Deacons were a 3 point favorite on the college football betting line. Wake jumped out to a 17-3 lead at halftime, but were outscored 20-7 in the second half to make the final 24-23 Deacons. Duke was actually up 23-17 in the fourth quarter, after scoring 23 unanswered points. The Deacons scored with 6:52 left on a 66 yard touchdown pass from quarterback Tanner Price to Chris Givens. Wake Forest had 305 total yards including 90 rushing yards, and just 13 first downs. Price threw for 215 total yards and 2 touchdowns, and he had 9 carries for 29 yards. Running back Brandon Pendergrass had a rushing touchdown. Givens had 6 catches, 147 yards and 2 touchdowns. Duke had 372 total yards including 148 rushing yards. Duke settled for field goals 3 times in the red zone which proved to be the difference in the game.
Wake Forest is averaging 386.6 total yards a game including 285 passing yards and 101.6 rushing yards. The Deacons are scoring 30.6 points a game. Wake has 5 turnovers and has allowed 20 sacks this season. The Demon Deacons are 45/116 on third and fourth down conversions, and 29/32 scoring in the red zone but they have only 16 touchdowns. Wake Forest is allowing 352.6 yards a game including 121.6 rushing yards and 231 passing yards. The Deacons are allowing 25.4 points a game. Wake Forest has forced 10 turnovers and 8 sacks this season. Wake opponents are 46/120 on third and fourth down conversions and 23/25 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. Wake has no defensive or special teams touchdowns.
Price is 135/220 passing for 1,821 yards, 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Running back Josh Harris has 91 carries, 412 yards, and 2 touchdowns with 5 catches for 22 yards. Harris has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury and is probable for this game. Pendergrass has 76 carries for 271 yards, and 3 touchdowns along with 8 catches for 44 yards. He will get most of the carries if Harris can’t go. Givens has 46 catches for 886 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 4 carries for 24 yards. Michael Campanaro has 29 catches for 346 yards and 2 touchdowns and has 2 touchdown passes this season. Danny Dembry has 26 catches for 337 yards and a touchdown, along with a rushing touchdown. Terence Davis has 13 catches, 200 yards, and 3 scores. Kicker Jimmy Newman is 23/25 on extra points and 13/14 on field goals with a long of 40 yards. Defensive linemen John Gallagher and and Ramon Booi are both questionable with knee injuries.
North Carolina was a 9.5 point underdog last week at Clemson. It was close at halftime, with Clemson up 24-17. However, the Tigers scored 35 points in the third quarter to take control of the game 59-24. North Carolina scored 2 late touchdowns too make it a little more respectable but the final was still 59-38. North Carolina had 9 penalties and 6 turnovers in the loss,and gave up 2 defensive scores. The Tar Heels had 418 total yards including 316 passing yards. UNC quarterback Bryn Renner had 264 passing yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Ryan Houston had 12 carries, 63 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jheranie Boyd has 3 catches, 95 yards, and 2 touchdowns. T.J. Thorpe had a 100 yard kickoff return for the Tar Heels. North Carolina gave up 450 total yards to Clemson including 373 passing yards from quarterback Tajh Boyd who threw 5 touchdown passes in the rout.
Through 8 games North Carolina is averaging 395.8 yards and 29.1 points a game. The Tar Heels are averaging 152.6 rushing yards and 243.1 passing yards a game. They have 18 turnovers and have allowed 17 sacks. Carolina is 37/97 on third and fourth down conversions and 23/28 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. North Carolina is allowing 367.9 yards and 25 points a game. The Tar Heels are allowing 104.5 rushing yards and 263.4 passing yards a game. North Carolina has forced 18 sacks and 12 turnovers. UNC opponents are 57/131 on third and fourth down conversions, and 20/27 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns.
Renner is 147/203 passing for 1,857 yards, 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with a touchdown run this season for the Tar Heels. Running back Giovani Bernard has 141 carries for 811 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 30 catches for 222 yards. Bernard is probable with a hip injury. Ryan Houston has 58 carries for 220 yards and 5 touchdowns along with 5 catches for 60 yards. Receiver Dwight Jones has 48 catches for 703 yards and 8 touchdowns. Erik Highsmith has 30 catches, 405 yards, and a touchdown. Boyd has only 9 catches but has 4 touchdowns. Kicker Casey Barth is 11/11 on extra points and made one field goal of 46 yards. He is out for the season with a groin injury. Thomas Moore is 21/21 on extra points and 2/3 on field goals with long of 32 yards. The Tar Heels have six players listed as questionable, doubtful or out for the Wake game including two defensive players.
North Carolina is 3-5 against the spread this season and the total is 4-4 in those games. Wake Forest is 4-3 ATS this season and the total is 5-2 in those games. The Deacons are 3-7 ATS in conference, 2-5 after they failed to cover in the previous game, as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points, 3-10 as a road underdog, 2-7 on the road, 1-6 against teams with winning records, and on grass. The Tar Heels 5-1-1 ATS after allowing 40 points or more the previous game, 4-1 as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, 2-5 as a home favorite, 2-6 at home, 1-4 following a straight up loss and a loss by 20 points or more, 1-4 overall and on grass, 1-5 against teams with winning records, and in October, and 1-6 in conference games.
Wake Forest opened as a 9 point dog, but were quickly bet down to +7 by college football handicappers. I realize Wake Forest hasn’t beaten anybody yet except for Florida St, but pretty soon people have to start taking this team seriously. I think Wake has a great shot to not only cover the spread but has a fighting chance to win straight up.
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