Virginia Cavaliers at #25 Florida St Seminoles
Doak Campbell Stadium – Tallahassee, Florida
Saturday, November 19, 2011, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Florida St -16 1/2
Current Line: Florida St -17 1/2
Opening Total: 46 1/2
Current Total: 47
Opening Money Line: FSU -900 / Virginia +600
Current Money Line: FSU -1000 / Virginia +650
Not much was expected for Mike London’s Virginia Cavaliers at the beginning of the season, as the Cavaliers were coming off a 4-8 season last year. However, the 7-3 Cavaliers have surprised many with a 4-2 record in the ACC Coastal Division. Virginia actually controls their own destiny and can win the division if they can upset Florida St this week and Virginia Tech next week at home. The Seminoles are also 7-3 and 5-2 in the ACC Atlantic Division under coach Jimbo Fisher. Virginia has home wins over William & Mary 40-3, Idaho 21-20 in overtime, Georgia Tech 24-21, and last week against Duke 31-21, along with road wins at Indiana 34-31, Miami 28-21, and Maryland 31-13, The Cavaliers have a road loss at North Carolina 28-17, and home losses to Southern Miss 30-24 and NC State 28-14. Florida St has won 5 straight games after a 2-3 start. The Seminoles have home wins over Louisiana-Monroe 34-0, Charleston Southern 62-10, Maryland 41-16, North Carolina St 34-0, and last week against Miami 23-19, along with road wins at Duke 41-16 and Boston College 38-7. Florida St has dominated the series against Virginia 14-2, and won last year’s meeting 34-14 in Charlottesville. Virginia hasn’t beaten Florida St since 2005.
Last week, Virginia hosted Duke. The two teams were tied at 14 at halftime. Virginia ran back and interception for a touchdown early in the third quarter to take a 21-14 lead. Duke tied it up on the next possession but Virginia scored the last 10 points to win 31-21 and cover the 9.5 point spread on the college football betting line. Neither team scored in the fourth quarter. Each team had a turnover. Virginia had 356 yards including 165 rushing yards. Cavalier quarterback Michael Rocco threw for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Kevin Parks had 21 carries for 78 yards. Perry Jones had 15 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown plus 3 catches for 30 yards. Kris Burd and Jeremiah Mathis each caught touchdowns for the Cavaliers. Duke had 337 total yards including 303 passing yards.
Virginia is averaging 420.3 total yards a game and 26.4 points. Virginia is averaging 187.4 rushing yards and 232.9 passing yards a game. They have 22 turnovers and have allowed 8 sacks. The Cavaliers are 73/174 on third and fourth down conversions, and 29/36 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. Defensively, the Cavaliers are giving up 332.2 yards a game and 21.6 points. Virginia is holding opponents to 117.1 rushing yards and 215.1 passing yards a game. Virginia has forced 20 turnovers and 15 sacks. Cavalier opponents are 60/173 on third and fourth down conversions, and 24/35 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. Virginia has one defensive touchdown this season.
Rocco is 158/267 passing with 1,910 yards, 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Rocco has 26 carries for 42 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Back-up David Watford is 30/71 passing for 346 yards with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 20 carries for 41 yards. Perry Jones has 162 carries for 856 yards and 5 touchdowns, and is also the teams’ third leading receiver with 32 catches for 354 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also has a touchdown pass this season. Parks has 125 carries, 616 yards, and 7 touchdowns, and 9 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. Clifton Richardson has 58 carries for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Kris Burd has 47 catches, 630 yards, and 1 touchdown. Tim Smith has 28 catches for 463 yards and 3 touchdowns. Matt Snyder has 19 catches for 220 yards. Snyder is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Kicker Robert Randolph is 27/27 on extra points and 15/21 on field goals with a long of 48 yards. Six Virginia defensive players are listed as questionable or out including 3 defensive players.
Last week Florida St was an 11 point favorite at home against arch-rival Miami. Florida St was s up 17-7 at halftime, but could only score 2 second half field goals. Miami scored 2 late touchdowns but missed two point conversions on both making the final 23-19 Seminoles. Miami actually had more yardage than Florida St 383-259 but the Hurricanes had three turnovers. Florida St had an 83 yard punt return for a touchdown near the end of the first half that proved to be the difference in the game. There were 19 combined penalties in the game, 10 by Florida St. Seminole quarterback E.J. Manuel threw for 196 yards and a touchdown, but was sacked 3 times. Running back Davonta Freeman had 16 catches for 76 yards, and 3 catches for 21 yards.
Florida St is averaging 402.8 total yards a game and 34.6 points a game. The Seminoles are averaging 282.7 passing yards and 120.1 rushing yards a game. The Seminoles have 15 turnovers and have allowed 29 sacks. Florida St is 52/115 on third and fourth down conversions. Florida St is 36/42 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. Florida St is giving up 280.7 total yards a game and only 16.1 points. FSU is allowing 86.2 rushing yards and 194.5 passing yards. They are ranked in the top 7 in all categories except passing defense which is #25. The Seminoles have forced 16 turnovers and 31 sacks. FSU opponents are 61/165 on third and fourth down conversions, and 23/28 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. The Seminoles are averaging just under 8 penalties for 65 yards a game. FSU has 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Manuel is 159/236 passing with 2,152 yards, 15 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 77 carries for 165 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. He missed the second half of the Oklahoma game and the Clemson game with a shoulder injury, and was replaced by Clint Trickett. Trickett is 44/72 passing with 675 yards, 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. James Wilder, Jr., Chris Thompson, and Freeman are the leading rushers but none has more than 443 yards in the 10 games. Freeman has 6 rushing touchdowns, and Thompson & Wilder each have one. Thompson is out for the season with a back injury. Six other Seminole running backs have a rushing touchdown. Receiver Rodney Smith has 29 catches for 507 yards with 4 touchdowns. Rashad Greene has 29 catches for 476 yards with 6 touchdowns. Kenny Shaw has 28 catches 332 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Bert Reed has 23 catches for 269 yards and 4 touchdowns. Receivers Josh Gehres and Willie Haulstead are listed as questionable or out against Virginia. Kicker Dustin Hopkins is 40/40 on extra points and 18/21 on field goals with a long of 53 yards. Besides the injuries to the receivers and running backs Florida St has numerous other players on the injured list including 4 defensive players.
Florida St is 5-5 against the spread and the total is 4-6 this year. Virginia is 5-5 ATS and the total is 2-8 this year. Virginia is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 against Florida St and the under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings. Virginia is 4-1 ATS in conference games, overall, and on grass, 6-2 as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, and 3-7 against teams with winning records. The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in conference games, as a favorite, overall, and as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, and 1-4 at against teams with winning records.
Though it is unlikely Virginia beats both Florida St and Virginia Tech in back to back weeks, I think Virginia can keep this close or at least within 17 points. I don’t see a lot of points being scored in this game, as both defenses are good, and the offenses struggle at times.
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