North Carolina Tar Heels at #7 Clemson Tigers
Memorial Stadium – Clemson, South Carolina
Saturday, October 22, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Clemson -9 1/2
Current Line: Clemson -10 1/2
Opening Total: 55 1/2
Current Total: 58
Opening Money Line: Clemson -380 / UNC +315
Current Money Line: Clemson -400 / UNC +325
Clemson and North Carolina meet for the 55th time Saturday in Death Valley. Clemson leads the overall series 34-19-1, including 17-7 at home. North Carolina won last year in Chapel Hill 21-16. The 5-2 Tar Heels are coached by interim coach Everett Withers. UNC has losses in conference at Georgia Tech 35-28 and last week at home to Miami 30-24. The Tar Heels have home wins over James Madison 42-10, Rutgers 24-22, Virginia 28-17, and Louisville 14-7 along with a road victory at East Carolina 35-20. Clemson is 7-0 and ranked #7 in the BCS standings, under coach Dabo Swinney. The Tigers narrowly avoided their first loss of the season with come from behind 56-45 victory at Maryland last week. Clemson also has home wins over Troy 43-19, Wofford 35-27, Auburn 38-24, Florida St 35-30, Boston College 36-14 and the Tigers have a road win at Virginia Tech 23-3.
North Carolina was a 1 point favorite last week at home against Miami. However, Miami was up 27-3 in the second quarter. North Carolina rallied but came up short 30-24. The Tar Heels had 429 total yards including 288 passing yards from quarterback Bryn Renner who threw 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Running back Giovani Bernard had 27 carries for 110 yards and a touchdown, along with 9 catches for 72 yards. Receiver Dwight Jones had 9 catches for 82 yards, and a touchdown. Miami had 311 total yards including just 44 rushing yards, but North Carolina lost 2 fumbles.
Through 6 games North Carolina is averaging 392.6 yards and 27.9 points a game. The Tar Heels are averaging 159.9 rushing yards a game. They have 12 turnovers and have allowed 16 sacks. Carolina is 34/83 on third and fourth down conversions and 20/24 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. North Carolina is allowing 356.1 yards and 20.1 points a game. The Tar Heels are allowing 108.4 rushing yards a game. North Carolina has forced 15 sacks and 11 turnovers. UNC opponents are 49/113 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/23 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns.
Renner is 128/170 passing for 1,593 yards, 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 37 carries and a touchdown run this season for the Tar Heels. Bernard has 130 carries for 767 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 28 catches for 194 yards. Ryan Houston has 46 carries for 157 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 5 catches for 60 yards. Jones has 46 catches for 687 yards and 8 touchdowns. Erik Highsmith has 34 catches, 343 yards, and a touchdown. Kicker Casey Barth is 11/11 on extra points and made one field goal of 46 yards. He is questionable with a pulled groin, and has missed the last four games. Thomas Moore is 16/16 on extra points and 1/2 on field goals with a 20 yard kick. The Tar Heels have seven players listed as questionable for the Miami game including three defensive players.
Clemson was down 35-17 in the third quarter last week at Maryland, but the Tigers outscored the Terps 39-10 from that point on to not only win 56-45 but cover the 9 point college football betting line. Clemson had 576 total yards in the win including 306 rushing yards. Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd came into the game with a hip injury and was questionable. He threw for 270 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception, along with 11 carries for 37 yards. Running back Andre Ellington had 24 carries for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Sammy Watkins had 8 catches, 105 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with an 89 yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Clemson had 2 turnovers including an interception returned for a touchdown by Maryland in the first quarter. Maryland had 468 total yards including 291 rushing yards.
Clemson is averaging 488.9 yards, including 293.7 passing yards and 195.1 rushing yards. The Tigers are averaging 38 points a game. Clemson has 7 turnovers and has allowed 13 sacks this season. Clemson is 58/120 on third and fourth down conversions, and 24/29 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. The Tigers are allowing 372.3 yards including 179 rushing yards and 193.3 passing yards a game. Clemson is allowing 23.1 points a game. The Tigers have forced 11 turnovers and have 15 sacks this season. Tiger opponents are 43/115 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/17 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns.
Boyd is 145/232 passing for 2,012 yards with 19 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 70 carries, for 157 yards and 3 touchdowns. Boyd leads the ACC in all major passing categories. Ellington has 139 carries, 740 yards, and 7 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 53 yards. Mike Bellamy and D.J. Howard also get significant carries and each has at least one touchdown run. Bellamy has two. Watkins has 46 catches, 728 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 20 carries for 127 yards. Dwayne Allen has 27 catches, 381 yards, and 4 scores. DeAndre Hopkins has 28 catches, 353 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Jaron Brown has 18 catches, 239 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Chandler Catanzaro is 28/29 on extra points and 12/14 on field goals with a long of 47 yards.
Clemson is 6-1 against the spread this season and 5 of the 7 games have gone over the total. North Carolina is 3-4 ATS this season and the total is 3-4 as well. The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, 4-1 in road games against teams with winning home records, 18-8 as an underdog, 2-5 following a straight up loss, 1-4 against teams with winning records, and in October games, and 1-5 in the last 6 conference games. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in conference games, 4-0 as a favorite, and following a cover, 5-0 following a straight up win, overall, and on grass, 4-1 as a home favorite, and as a favorite of 10.5 points or more.
Clemson is a better team, but has a showdown with Georgia Tech looming next week. They could overlook a North Carolina coming off a bad loss, but the Tar Heels are still dangerous especially on defense. The Tar Heels could slow down the high octane Clemson attack.
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