Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels
Kenan Stadium – Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Saturday, October 15, 2011, 12:30 pm Eastern, TV: ACC Network, ESPN Game Plan
Opening Line: North Carolina -3 1/2 (-115)
Current Line: North Carolina -3 (-115)
Opening Total: 49
Current Total: 51 1/2
Opening Money Line: UNC -155 / Miami +135
Current Money Line: UNC -145 / Miami +125
Up until August, this would have been the Butch Davis Bowl as he coached at both programs. However, North Carolina fired him a few weeks before the season started because of some NCAA violations that occurred under his watch. Davis was replaced by interim coach Everett Withers This is just a regular ACC game now but still important for both schools, especially Miami who is 0-2 in the ACC under first year coach Al Golden. The Hurricanes are 2-3 overall with losses at Maryland 32-24 and last week at rival Virginia Tech 38-35. The Hurricanes also have a loss at home to Kansas St 28-24, and home wins over Ohio St 24-6 and Bethune-Cookman 45-14. Miami is 2-3 but could easily be 4-1 or 5-0 with so many close losses. North Carolina is 5-1 overall and 1-1 in the ACC. The only loss for the Tar Heels came at Georgia Tech 35-28, who is currently ranked #12 in the country and undefeated. North Carolina has home wins over James Madison 42-10, Rutgers 24-22, Virginia 28-17, and last week against Louisville 14-7, and a road win at East Carolina 35-20. North Carolina leads the series against Miami 8-6, but Miami won last year at home 33-10. The Hurricanes have never won in Chapel Hill before.
Last week in Blacksburg, Miami was down 21-7 at halftime and 24-14 at the end of the third quarter to Virginia Tech. Miami came back and took a 35-31 lead with 2:51 left in the game. Virginia Tech scored with 56 seconds left to regain the lead 38-35 and held off a final desperation drive by the Hurricanes for the win. Miami did cover the 7.5 point college football betting line, but that is of little consolation to the Canes who dropped to 0-2 in conference play with the loss. Miami had 519 total yards in the loss including 236 rushing yards. Miami running back Lamar Miller rushed for 166 yards on 18 carries and had a touchdown run, along with 3 catches, 23 yards, and a touchdown catch, Hurricanes’ quarterback Jacory Harris threw for 267 yards, 3 touchdown passes and no interceptions. Miami had 9 penalties in the loss. Virginia tech had 482 total yards, including 310 passing yards. The Hokies had one turnover in the win.
Miami is averaging 399 yards a game including 182.6 rushing yards a game. The Hurricanes are averaging 30.4 points a game. Miami has allowed 7 sacks and has 8 turnovers. The Hurricanes are 30/67 on third and fourth down conversions and 15/17 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Miami is allowing 402 yards and 23.6 points a game. Miami has one of the worst rush defenses in the country giving up 196.7 yards a game, but the pass defense is giving up only 205.8 yards a game. The ‘Canes have forced 6 turnovers and 14 sacks. Miami opponents are 36/75 on third and fourth down conversions, and 17/23 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns.
Harris is 62/92 passing for 837 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, along with 18 carries for 20 yards. Miller has 94 carries for 677 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 35 yards and a touchdown. Mike James has 39 carries for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 29 yards. Receiver Travis Benjamin has 16 catches, 247 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tommy Streeter has 14 catches for 243 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Allen Hurns has 16 catches for 239 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Jake Wieclaw is 20/20 on extra points and 4/4 on field goals with a long of 39 yards. Miami has numerous players on the injury report due to suspension or injury including 6 defensive players.
North Carolina had a tough defensive struggle last week at home versus Louisville. The game was scoreless until midway through the 3rd quarter when the Tar Heels took a 7-0 lead. Both teams exchanged touchdowns in the 4th to make the final 14-7 North Carolina. Louisville scored with 42 seconds left to avoid the shutout and to cover the 14 point spread. Both teams had under 275 total yards, and had one turnover. The game featured 16 total penalties. North Carolina had 264 yards including 86 rushing yards, and just 11 first downs. The Tar Heels gave up 4 sacks in the win. Running back Giovani Bernard had 25 carries for 109 yards, and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 14 yards. Quarterback Bryn Renner threw for 178 yards, and a touchdown with no interceptions.
Through 6 games North Carolina is averaging 386.5 yards and 28.5 points a game. The Tar Heels are averaging 163 rushing yards a game. They have 10 turnovers and have allowed 12 sacks. Carolina is 28/67 on third and fourth down conversions and 16/19 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. North Carolina is allowing 363.7 yards and 18.5 points a game. The Tar Heels are allowing 119.2 rushing yards a game. North Carolina has forced 13 sacks and 10 turnovers. UNC opponents are 43/98 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/21 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns.
Renner is 99/133 passing for 1,305 yards, 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 29 carries and a touchdown run this season for the Tar Heels. Bernard has 103 carries for 657 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 122 yards. Ryan Houston has 41 carries for 135 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 5 catches for 60 yards. Receiver Dwight Jones has 37 catches for 605 yards and 7 touchdowns. Erik Highsmith has 18 catches, 269 yards, and a touchdown. Kicker Casey Barth is 11/11 on extra points and made one field goal of 46 yards. He is questionable with a pulled groin, and has missed the last three games. Thomas Moore is 13/13 on extra points but missed his only field goal attempt of the year. The Tar Heels have six players listed as questionable for the Miami game including four defensive players.
North Carolina is 3-3 against the spread this season and the total is 2-4 in those games. Miami is 2-3 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record, 4-1 in the last 5 as a road underdog of 3 points or less, 5-11 ATS in the last 16 conference games. 2-5 in their last 7 on grass, 12-32 ATS following a cover in the previous game, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 overall, and 1-5 following a straight up loss. North Carolina is 12-25 ATS in the last 37 as a home favorite, including 3-8 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less, 2-5 ATS in the last 7 home games, and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 conference games.
This line seems a little low, and is only 3 points mainly because of Miami’s reputation. Miami has been inconsistent this season but has been hit by suspensions to key players because of improper benefits given to them by convicted felon and former Miami booster Nevin Shapiro. North Carolina has a chance to compete with Clemson and Georgia Tech for the ACC title but can’t afford to slip up at home against a Miami team they should beat.
Our college football handicappers are off to a great start this season as we approach the midway point. Don’t miss out on any more winners or key plays.
