#6 North Carolina Tar Heels at Maryland Terrapins
Comcast Center – College Park, Maryland
Saturday, February 4, 2012, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: North Carolina -13
Current Line: North Carolina -12 1/2
Opening Total: 150 1/2
Current Total: 149 1/2
Opening Money Line: UNC -900 / Maryland +650
Current Money Line: UNC -900 / Maryland +650
The 19-3 North Carolina Tar Heels are 6-1 in the ACC and tied with Duke and Florida St for first place in the conference. North Carolina now travels to rival Maryland Saturday. The Terrapins are 13-8 overall and 3-4 in the ACC, and tied with Clemson 3 games behind the leaders. North Carolina has won 13 of their last 14 games, including a 68-53 win at Wake Forest Tuesday night. Maryland has lost 4 of their last 5 games, including a 90-86 double overtime loss at Miami Wednesday night. North Carolina leads the series against 115-57 including 45-36 in College Park. Maryland has won four of the last six games in the series, and 5 of 7 in College Park. North Carolina won the only meeting between the schools 87-76 last year in Chapel Hill.
North Carolina is coached by Roy Williams. The Tar Heels have losses to UNLV, Kentucky, and Florida St, all on the road to teams currently ranked. UNC has wins over Michigan St, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Evansville, Long Beach St, Texas, Boston College, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina St, and Georgia Tech.
Maryland is coached Mark Turgeon. The Terrapins have losses to Alabama, Iona, Illinois, NC State, Florida St, Temple and Duke. Maryland has wins over Colorado, Notre Dame, Florida International, Cornell, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech.
North Carolina is outscoring opponents 84-67 this season. The Tar Heels are #1 in the country in scoring. North Carolina shoots 47.% from the field and 35.6% from 3 point range. UNC makes 65.1% from the free throw line. The Tar Heels lead the nation in rebounding with 46.3 rebounds a game, with a rebounding margin of +11.8. The Tar Heels average 18.1 assists, 12.6 turnovers, 7.6 steals, and 6.5 blocks a game. UNC is 4th nationally in assists. UNC opponents are shooting 38.4% from the field, and 32% from 3 point range. The Heels force 14.5 turnovers a game on defense.
UNC forward Harrison Barnes averages 17.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1.2 steals a game. He makes 43.1% of his 3 point attempts. Barnes is probable with an ankle injury. Tyler Zeller averages 15 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks a game. John Henson averages 14.2 points, 10 rebounds to lead the team, 1.5 assists, and 3.3 blocks a game to lead the team. Reggie Bullock averages 8.5 points, and 4.5 rebounds a game. Kendall Marshall leads the Heels in assists with 9.5 a game and steals with 1.4 a game. He is also probable with an ankle injury. Dexter Strickland is out for the season with a torn ACL. Guard Leslie McDonald is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Maryland is being outscored 70-69 this season. The Terrapins are shooting 43.2% from the field and 32.9% from 3 point range. Maryland makes 65.5% from the free throw line. The Terps average 36.5 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +2.9. Maryland averages 10.7 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 3.9 steals and 4.3 blocks a game on defense. Terrapin opponents are shooting 43.4% from the field and 31.7% from 3 point range. Maryland forces 11.3 turnovers a game.
Maryland guard Terrell Stoglin averages 21.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2 assists a game. He is 4th in the nation in scoring, and makes 38.4% from 3 point range. Sean Mosley averages 10.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1 steal a game to lead the team. He is shooting 40.3% from 3 point range. James Padgett averages 9 points and 5.9 rebounds a game to lead the team. Nick Faust, Alex Len, Pe’Shon Howard, and Ashton Pankey also contribute to the scoring. Len averages 5.3 rebounds and leads the Terps in blocks with 2.1 a game. Howard averages 4.2 assists a game to lead the team. Maryland is a very young team with 11 freshmen and sophomores.
Maryland is 7-9-1 against the spread and the total is 9-8 this season. North Carolina is 11-10 ATS and the total is 10-11 this season. Maryland is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 against North Carolina. The home team is 9-3 in the last 12, and the last 6 games have gone over the total. The Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records, 7-3 in road games against teams with winning home records, 2-5 after a straight up win, and 0-4 in Saturday games. The Terrapins are 3-1-1 ATS at home, 5-13-1 against teams with winning records, 4-11-1 after a cover, 1-4 in Saturday games, and at home against teams with winning road records.
Although North Carolina is clearly the more talented team, the Tar Heels do sometimes have some lapses on defense. They have been playing much better defense since Strickland injured his knee, but that is because they were humiliated by Florida St a couple of weeks ago in a 33 point blowout loss. I could see North Carolina looking ahead here as they have a showdown Wednesday night at home against arch-rival Duke. With Barnes and Marshall nursing gimpy ankles for UNC, I think Maryland keeps it closer than the 12.5 point spread.
