North Carolina St Wolfpack at Florida St Seminoles
Doak Campbell Stadium – Tallahassee, Florida
Saturday, October 29, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Florida St -18
Current Line: Florida St -18
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 54 1/2
Opening Money Line: FSU -1050 / NCST +675
Current Money Line: FSU -1050 / NCST +675
Both North Carolina St and Florida St are 4-3 this season as they meet in a crucial ACC Atlantic match-up. Both have 2 losses in conference and can’t afford to lose more ground to undefeated Clemson and one loss Wake Forest. NC State is coached by Tom O’Brien, and has home wins over Liberty 43-21, South Alabama 35-13, and Central Michigan 38-24, and last week at Virginia 28-14. The Wolfpack have losses at Wake Forest 34-27 and Cincinnati 44-14 along with a home loss to Georgia Tech 45-35. Florida St coached by Jimbo Fisher has home wins over Louisiana-Monroe 34-0, Charleston Southern 62-10, and last week against Maryland 41-16, along with a road win at Duke 41-16. The Seminoles have won two straight after a 3 game losing streak at home to Oklahoma 23-13, and 35-30 at Clemson and Wake Forest. Florida St leads the series 21-10 against North Carolina St, including 12-4 in Tallahassee. NC State won last year in Raleigh 28-24.
North Carolina St was a 3 point underdog on the college football betting line last week at Virginia. Virginia jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the first but NC State scored 21 unanswered points to take a 21-7 lead late in the third. Virginia scored to make it 21-14 at the end of the third, but the Wolfpack sealed the victory with a 12 yard interception return for a touchdown with 6 minutes to go in the game to make the final 28-14. It was one of 4 turnovers for the Cavaliers while the Wolfpack had 2 of their own. NC State had 345 total yards and 14 first downs. Quarterback Mike Glennon threw for 231 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Receiver Bryan Underwood had 3 catches for 125 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Virginia had 249 total yards and 12 first downs.
The Wolfpack don’t really have what you would call a balanced attack on offense. The passing game averages 254.7 yards a game but the ground game is among the worst in the country with 115.9 yards rushing a game. NC State is averaging 370.6 total yards and 31.4 points a game. The Wolfpack have 13 turnovers and have allowed 17 sacks this season. NC State is 48/116 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/23 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. NC State is allowing 388.9 yards a game including 223.4 passing yards and 165.4 rushing yards a game. The Wolfpack are allowing 27.9 points a game. North Carolina St has forced 22 turnovers and 16 sacks this season. NC State opponents are 43/107 on third and fourth down conversions, and 21/24 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. NC State has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Glennon is 144/229 passing with 1,717 yards, 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Running back James Washington has 117 carries, 491 yards, and 5 touchdowns, along with 24 catches for 210 yards. Curtis Underwood Jr. has 42 carries, 226 yards, and 1 touchdown, along with 5 catches, 43 yards, and a touchdown. He has missed the last 3 games with a knee injury and is questionable against Florida St. Tony Creecy has 43 carries for 187 yards, along with 9 catches, 60 yards, and a touchdown catch. Receiver T.J. Graham has 23 catches, 492 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Jay Smith has 20 catches 213 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tobias Palmer has 19 catches, 210 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a head injury after missing the Virginia game. Four other Wolfpack receivers have at least 2 touchdown catches including Underwood. Kicker Niklas Sade is 28/30 on extra points, and 4/7 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. NC State has 9 players listed as questionable, doubtful, or out including 5 defensive players.
Last week, Florida St hosted Maryland. The Seminoles jumped out to a 17-0 lead and cruised to a 41-16 win to cover the 19.5 point spread. It was the second straight 41-16 win after beating Duke by the same score. The Seminoles had 482 total yards including 218 rushing yards. Quarterback E.J. Manuel threw for 264 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and also had a rushing touchdown. Running back Devonta Freeman had 11 carries, 100 yards, and a touchdown. Jermaine Thomas added 9 carries, 86 yards, and a touchdown. Maryland had 331 total yards including 59 rushing yards. The game featured 15 penalties.
Florida St is averaging 431.1 total yards a game and 35.9 points a game. The Seminoles are averaging 304.3 passing yards and 126.9 rushing yards a game. The Seminoles have 13 turnovers and have allowed 20 sacks. Florida St is 40/83 on third and fourth down conversions. Florida St is 25/29 scoring in the red zone but have only 17 red zone touchdowns. Florida St is giving up 293 total yards a game and only 19.3 points. FSU is allowing 84.6 rushing yards and 208.4 passing yards. They are ranked in the top 20 in all categories except passing defense which is #40. The Seminoles have forced 6 turnovers and 25 sacks. FSU opponents are 41/118 on third and fourth down conversions, and 19/22 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. The Seminoles are averaging just under 9 penalties for 74 yards a game. FSU has one defensive touchdown this season.
Manuel is 105/163 passing with 1,455 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 44 carries for 132 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. He missed the second half of the Oklahoma game and the Clemson game with a shoulder injury, and was replaced by Clint Trickett. Trickett is 44/72 passing with 675 yards, 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. James Wilder, Jr., Chris Thompson, and Devonta Freeman are the leading rushers but none has more than 288 yards combined in the 6 games. Freeman has 3 rushing touchdowns, and Thompson & Wilder each have one. Thompson is out for the season with a back injury. Receiver Rashad Greene has 26 catches for 457 yards with 6 touchdowns. Greene is doubtful with a ankle injury after missing the Maryland game. Rodney Smith has 25 catches for 450 yards with 3 touchdowns. Bert Reed has 12 catches for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kenny Shaw also has 3 touchdown catches. Receivers Willie Haulstead, Josh Gehres, and Jarred Haggins are listed as questionable, doubtful, or out against Maryland. Kicker Dustin Hopkins is 29/29 on extra points and 12/13 on field goals with a long of 53. Besides the injuries to the receivers and running backs Florida St has 7 other players on the injured list including 3 offensive linemen.
Florida St is 3-4 against the spread this season and the total is 4-3 in those games. NC State is 3-4 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season. The Wolfpack have covered the last 2 times against Florida St. NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in October games, 5-1 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 12-3 as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, 6-2-1 in conference games, 19-7-2 following a cover, and as an underdog, 13-5-1 on grass, 28-11-1 as a road dog, and 19-8-2 versus teams with winning records. The Seminoles are 5-2 ATS a favorite, 3-7 in conference games, 8-22-1 after a straight up win of more than 20 points, and 1-4 at home against teams with winning road records.
Florida St should win this game rather handily as they seem to have gotten back on track after a 3 game losing streak.
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