Maryland Terrapins at Florida St Seminoles
Doak Campbell Stadium – Tallahassee, Florida
Saturday, October 22, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN2
Opening Line: Florida St -17
Current Line: Florida St -18
Opening Total: 53 1/2
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: Florida St -950 / Maryland +625
Current Money Line: Florida St -1000 / Maryland +650
Before the season, many people thought Maryland and Florida St would compete for the ACC title, especially Florida St who was ranked in the top 5 in the pre-season polls. It hasn’t worked out that way as both teams are 1-2 in conference play. Maryland, who is led by first year coach Randy Edsall, is 2-4 this season. The Terrapins have home wins over Miami 32-24 and Towson 28-3. Maryland has home losses to West Virginia 37-31, Temple 38-7, and last week against Clemson 56-45, along with a road loss at Georgia Tech 21-16. All four losses came to likely bowl teams, and all except Temple are ranked in the top 20 in the country. Temple is the best team in the MAC though. Florida St, coached by Jimbo Fisher, started off the season with easy home wins over Louisiana-Monroe 34-0 and Charleston Southern 62-10, before they went on a three game losing streak with a home loss to Oklahoma 23-13, and 35-30 road losses to Clemson and Wake Forest. Florida St ended the losing streak with a 41-16 pasting of Duke last week in Durham. Florida St has dominated the series against Maryland 19-2 including a 30-16 win last year in College Park.
Last week, Maryland was up 35-17 in the third quarter at home against Clemson and looked like they were going to pull off the upset of the top ten ranked and undefeated Tigers. However, Clemson outscored them 39-10 from that point on to not only win 56-45 but cover the 9 point college football betting line. It was the third heartbreaking loss this season to top 20 teams for Maryland. The Terrapins had 468 total yards in the Clemson loss, including 291 rushing yards. Maryland quarterback C.J. Brown had 339 combined rushing and passing yards with 4 total touchdowns (3 passing), and one interception. Running back Davin Meggett had 69 rushing yards plus a rushing and receiving touchdown. Receiver Matt Furstenburg had 5 catches, 104 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The Terrapins only had the one turnover on the Brown interception, but forced two Clemson turnovers, including a 46 yards interception return for a touchdown in the first quarter by the Terps. Clemson had 576 total yards including 306 rushing yards.
The Terrapins are averaging 392 total yards and 26.5 points a game. Maryland is averaging 205.5 passing yards and 186.5 rushing yards a game. Maryland has allowed 8 sacks this year and has 9 turnovers. Maryland is 40/100 on third and forth down conversions, and is 20/26 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. Maryland is allowing 435.3 yards and 29.8 points a game. The Terps are allowing 214.7 rushing yards and 220.7 passing yards a game. They have forced 15 turnovers and 11 sacks. Maryland opponents are 50/98 on third and fourth down conversions, and 23/28 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. Maryland has 3 defensive touchdowns.
Maryland quarterback Danny O’Brien was benched two weeks ago against Georgia Tech. He didn’t play at all versus Clemson, and it looks like Brown will be the starter. O’Brien is 97/156 passing with 930 yards, 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 16 carries for 18 yards. Brown is 27/59 passing for 269 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and is the second leading rusher for the Terps with 33 carries, 315 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Meggett has 99 carries for 482 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown. Justus Pickett has 39 carries, 175 yards, and 1 touchdown, along with 7 catches for 14 yards. D.J. Adams has 18 carries for 76 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Kevin Dorsey has 29 catches, 361 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kerry Boykins and Matt Furstenburg also get significant targets. Furstenburg has 2 touchdown catches. Kicker Nick Ferrera is 16/16 on extra points and 7/10 on field goals with a long of 32 yards. Maryland has 11 players listed as doubtful or out for the Clemson game, including 7 defensive players and 3 offensive linemen.
A trip to Durham was just what the doctor ordered last week for the reeling Florida St Seminoles. Florida St jumped out to a 27-3 lead at halftime and cruised to a 41-16 win over Duke to cover the 11.5 point spread. The Seminoles had 481 total yards including 242 rushing yards. FSU quarterback E.J. Manuel threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 62 yards and two more touchdowns. Running back DeVonte Freeman had 19 carries, 109 yards and a touchdown. No Seminole receiver had more than 2 receptions but 4 players averaged at least 24 yards a catch. Duke had just 289 total yards, including 63 rushing yards, and 15 first downs. Both teams had 2 turnovers in the game.
Florida St is averaging 422.7 total yards a game and 35 points a game. The Seminoles are averaging 311 passing yards and 111.7 rushing yards a game. The Seminoles have 12 turnovers and have allowed 16 sacks. Florida St is 33/70 on third and fourth down conversions. Florida St is 21/24 scoring in the red zone but have only 15 red zone touchdowns. Florida St is giving up 286.7 total yards a game and only 19.8 points. FSU is allowing 88.8 rushing yards and 197.8 passing yards. They are ranked in the top 25 in all categories except passing defense which is #31. The Seminoles have forced 6 turnovers and 19 sacks. FSU opponents are 33/100 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/19 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. The Seminoles are averaging just under 9 penalties for 78 yards a game. FSU has one defensive touchdown this season.
Manuel is 87/137 passing with 1,191 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 32 carries for 132 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. He missed the second half of the Oklahoma game and the Clemson game with a shoulder injury, and was replaced by Clint Trickett. Trickett is 44/72 passing with 675 yards, 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. The Seminoles are only averaging 111.7 rushing yards a game with 8 rushing touchdowns. James Wilder, Jr., Chris Thompson, and Devonta Freeman are the leading rushers but none has more than 188 yards combined in the 6 games. Freeman has 2 rushing touchdowns, and Thompson & Wilder each have one. Thompson is out for the season with a back injury. Receiver Rashad Greene has 26 catches for 457 yards with 6 touchdowns. Greene is probable with a ankle injury. Rodney Smith has 22 catches for 386 yards with 3 touchdowns. Bert Reed has 7 catches for 64 yards and 3 touchdowns. He hasn’t caught a pass in the last 2 games after returning from an ankle injury. In fact, receivers Willie Haulstead, Josh Gehres, and Jarred Haggins are listed as questionable, doubtful, or out against Maryland. Kicker Dustin Hopkins is 24/24 on extra points and 10/10 on field goals with a long of 53. Besides the injuries to the receivers and running backs Florida St has 5 other players on the injured list including 3 offensive linemen.
Florida St is 2-4 against the spread this season and the total is 3-3 in those games. Maryland is also 2-4 ATS and the total is 3-3 in those games. The last two games have gone under the total in this series. The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 road games, 7-2 in conference games, 7-2 as a road dog of 10.5 points or more, 3-1-1 following a double digit home loss, 7-3 as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 1-4 overall, and on grass. The Seminoles are 16-33-2 ATS following a straight up win, 17-35-1 following a straight up win of more than 20 points, 2-5 at home, 4-10-1 following a cover, 2-6 is home games against teams with losing road records, 2-7 in conference games, 1-4 overall, and 1-6 against teams with losing records.
Maryland has lost 3 games to top 20 teams by a total of 22 points. They aren’t as bad as their record indicates, and the offense seems to be clicking better with Brown at the helm. I think Maryland can keep this close and should cover the 18 point spread.
Our college football odds page allows users to see real time line movements on sides, totals, money lines, and first half and halftime lines and totals. Our college football handicappers are crushing the sports books this season. We have mid-season picks packages available at a reduced rate.
