I don’t pretend to be a genius, and since I am writing this a week before you are reading it I don’t have the benefit of having watched the conference tournaments or seeing the bracket. Despite that, I’ll fearlessly wade into it and make a few bold predictions about things as they may unfold. Take them as you will:

The winner will be: I’m not willing to pick one team just yet, but I will say this – the winner is going to be Louisville, Pitt, UNC, Duke, Memphis, or Michigan State. I’m bearish on UConn and Oklahoma, and I don’t feel the need to go any deeper in the bracket than this. Duke and Michigan State are in there because their coaching is good enough to help them exceed their talent (and their talent is pretty darned good). Both have also faced very tough conference schedules and come through reasonably well. UNC has the most talent, but they make me uneasy given their play at times this year. If all things were equal, though, then they would win it all. Louisville can be inconsistent at times, but they are deadly when they get hot, they are well tested, and they have the talent and the coaching to do some serious damage. Memphis just keeps getting better, and Tyreke Evans is growing into his impressive talent right before our eyes. Pitt is just built for this kind of thing – they are tough, deep, and talented. I love that they beat UConn twice – that means a lot to me.

The first major conference to be eliminated from contention: The SEC. I’m not even nervous about this guess. I said this before and I’m totally serious – I would be more than a little surprised if any teams from this group survived the first weekend. Unless they get particularly lucky draws I expect carnage.

Gonzaga will: Disappoint again. They are hot now, and the won their conference tournament with emphasis, but I still don’t trust them when the cards are down. They could get three wins, but no more than that.

Reasonably hyped mid-majors that will fizzle: Siena isn’t nearly as good as people thought they were back in November. Xavier is a team I really like, but their inconsistent play own the stretch is concerning to me. Barring a big performance in the conference tournament, I’m not sure they are ready to live up to their potential.

Where I will spend more than 40 hours from Thursday to Sunday: My couch. And I expect I am far from alone on that front.