The home Chargers opened as a 3 point favorite, and despite the squares playing the Pats at just under 85%, the line has come down slightly. Some books have are at 2 ½, while 5Dimes and SportBet are down to a single point. Given the line movement in the situation, it’s obvious that sharps are putting good money down on San Diego. Regardless of the Chargers early season struggles, following the wiseguys is a good move in this match-up.
If the Chargers’ special teams would stop screwing up, and if the team didn’t have bad turnovers, they could be 6-0. That’s the truth. They’ve been in every game they’ve played. But against Seattle, two kickoff return touchdowns for the Seahawks decided the game. Against Oakland, two blocked punts were the difference. Turnovers were critical against Kansas City, and St. Louis was only a field goal difference.
With respect to total yards for and against, San Diego is one of the best in the League. The offense is putting up over 430 yards per game, while the defense is yielding under 255 yards. That’s outstanding. Philip Rivers is throwing for more than 300 yards per game, while the Charger secondary is giving up only 162 yards per game. Again, these are outstanding numbers.
Consider this: San Diego is 0-4 on the road, but 2-0 at home. In their 2 home games, the Chargers have won by a combined score of 79-23; obviously, they’ve covered both games easily. This is still the best team in AFC West, like it has been for the past several years. All they need is a big win over a quality opponent to get into the type of rhythm that can carry this team deep into January. This game fits that mold.
The Patriots have been the best team in the NFL over the past decade, and not many people would argue with that. They’re strong again this year. They’re 5-1 with their lone loss coming to the Jets on the road. Tom Brady is throwing strikes, and the Pat running game has been serviceable. And when the defense wants to play well, they can. But the secondary is young and has been lit up to the tune of 273 passing yards per game. Against a Rivers led offense, that could mean big trouble.
But they’ve only played 2 road games and lost the one against the Jets. The other was a win against Miami, thanks to special teams play. That’s right, special teams, so we’re throwing caution to the wind in this game. But at the same time, this is only the 3rd game for the Pats on the road and they have to travel across the entire country. Don’t think that doesn’t matter – it does.
The last time these two teams met was 2 years ago in San Diego. The Chargers won 30-10. Don’t be surprised to see a similar score in this one. The squares are killing the Pats, and it’s usually a good idea to trend away from public favorites. The wiseguys have pulled the line down to 2 ½ at most sites, so notice that sharps have been laying down big plays in this one. Do yourself a favor and follow the wiseguys – we think they have a good read in this match-up.
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