The Spartans opened as 7 ½ point road favorites against Northwestern, but the line has come down to 5 points at most sites. The squares are trending heavily to Michigan State, playing the visitors at about 85%. That means a significant amount of sharp money has come in on the side of the Wildcats. The wiseguys are backing Northwestern, and we think that’s the way to go in this one and we will use this as one of our free football picks for the week.
Northwestern has a good football team, and they usually find a way to win games they shouldn’t. Last year they beat Iowa in Kinnick Stadium and Wisconsin at home – two ranked teams. And the year before they won at Kinnick and beat Minnesota on the road – two more ranked teams. The Wildcats are a dangerous underdog.
Further, Northwestern is coming of the bye, so they’ll be rested and prepared. And while it might be overlooked, don’t forget that this is Northwestern. They’re smart. There’s no way around it. The guys from East Lansing aren’t stupid, but they can’t compete with Northwestern intellectually (or Michigan, for that matter). In games where the underdog has a puncher’s chance of winning, the side with the better wit might have an advantage.
Additionally, Dan Persa has been outstanding this year. Northwestern’s signal caller is 4th in the country in passer rating, trailing only Kellen Moore, Cam Newton, and Ricky Stanzi. With respect to completion percentage, Persa is #1 with an unbelievable 78%. On top of that, Persa is a talented runner, too. And given Northwestern’s offensive style, look for Persa to put an extraordinary amount of pressure on the Spartan defense.
That being said, Michigan State has a pretty good quarterback as well. Kirk Cousins is #11 in quarterback rating and #25 in completion percentage at 66.3%.
The Spartans are balanced, too. While Cousins can throw Michigan State to a victory, he doesn’t have to. The running game features two great backs and a physical, agile offensive line. And on defense, the Spartans have been particularly good their last 3 games. They held down Wisconsin at home, kept Denard Robinson and Michigan in check in Ann Arbor, and held Illinois to just 6 points last week. Sparty doesn’t have to play Ohio State this year, so if they can get by Northwestern and Iowa, they should end up undefeated.
The technical numbers don’t offer much guidance, but Northwestern does have a few situational statistics in their favor. Against the spread over the past 3 season, the Wildcats are 6-0 as an underdog between 3 ½ and 10 points. Further, they’re 11-4 as an underdog, 5-1 off a loss against a conference rival, and 2-1 after a bye. The Spartans are 4-1 as road favorites, 12-9 as a favorite, 6-4 on the road, and 7-5 in October. Michigan State is a solid road favorite, but Northwestern is an awesome underdog. The wiseguys are undoubtedly aware of that.
The sharps are backing the Wildcats big time in this game. Even though the squares are decidedly favoring the Spartans, the line has come down to just 5 points at most sites. While that might have created a little value for Michigan State, the truth is that Northwestern looks like the better play here. This will be the Spartans’ first game outside of the state of Michigan. They have to play a Wildcat team coming out of their bye, off a loss, with a quality quarterback and a smart football team that has a history of overachieving. Follow the wiseguys in this game.
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