The betting line for this game has seen a significant swing. The road Cowboys opened as a 1 point favorite, but the college football spreads moved to Texas Tech favored by 3 ½ points. Then some buyback on Ok State brought it back to 3 points, which is where most books are currently sitting. The public is all over the Cowboys, backing them at nearly 80%. But in this case, fading the public favorite is a solid play.
The line has seen some big reverse action, thanks to a lot of sharp money coming in on Tech. A line move of 4 points has created some value for Ok State, but following sharp action and giving up a few points is often the price you pay for wiseguy advice. There’s a good chance some bettors played Tech early at +1, and then bet Ok State at +3 ½, and are hoping for the middle play. Considering the buyback and public action on Ok State, chances are the line will come down to 2 ½, which is a safer play.
At first glance, the technical numbers seem to support the Cowboys in this situation. But a few key numbers make a play on Tech seem like a better move. Against the spread over the past three seasons, Ok State is 7-1 in October, 10-3 after 2 or more straight up wins, 6-3 on the road, and 7-6 against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, Tech is 6-6 ats at home, 10-10 as a favorite, 6-5 in October, and 9-4 against teams with a winning record. But keep in mind, the Cowboys are 2-6 ats as an underdog and 0-5 as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points. Tech is 4-2 ats as a favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points and 2-0 as a home favorite of 3 ½ to 7 points. Additionally, Tech has the revenge factor on its side.
Texas Tech has had to adjust to a new coaching staff. With a new head coach, defensive coordinator, and offensive coordinator, it’s easy to understand why the Red Raiders have had some early season struggles. But they looked much better on offense against Baylor, and the defense wasn’t bad. They gave up 38 points, but most were due to special teams or big plays. Overall, the defense looked ok.
Oklahoma State has played well, but they’ve only played one road game, which was last week at Louisiana-Lafayette. They won the game and covered, but they were tied at halftime against a middling Sun Belt team. The truth is that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t that good. The offense is explosive, but they’ve also benefited from playing some terrible defenses, which is why they’ve played over every week. Their toughest game to date was against Texas A&M, which the Aggies gave away with bad turnovers. In terms of total yards, A&M outgained the Cowboys by nearly 200 yards – in Stillwater!
It’s just a matter of time before the Ok State defense is exposed and the Cowboys get their first loss. That will come this Saturday afternoon in Lubbock. In games played in Lubbock since 1992, Texas Tech is 7-0 straight up and 6-0 ats against Ok State. In 2008, Tech won by 36 points as a 4 point favorite.
The wiseguys are playing Tech heavily, and for good reason. They are the play to pay here. Wait and see if you can get 2 ½ points, but don’t be afraid to back the Red Raiders. Take Texas Tech and lay the points.
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