The New York Jets silenced their critics by soundly beating the New England Patriots last Sunday. The Jets will try to build on that momentum when they head to Miami to take on the Dolphins in an AFC East battle.  The Dolphins opened as 1 ½ point favorites. Now books are putting the game anywhere between 1 and 2 ½ points, though most sites are at 1 point. The public is on the side of the home ‘Fins at over 60%. While Miami has played well, fading the public favorite in this situation feels like a good move.

The public has likely been influenced by the status of both Darrelle Revis and Braylon Edwards. Revis is out 1-2 weeks with his hamstring, which seemed to conveniently flare up on Randy Moss’ one-handed touchdown catch. Edwards had a DWI earlier in the week. Jets General Manager Mike Tannenbaum said that the wide receiver “will dress. He will play. But he will not start.” That basically means Rex Ryan will determine how much Edwards plays. The course of the game will probably influence Ryan’s decision-making process.

But aside from Revis and Edwards, this is still a very good football team. While Revis is probably the best cornerback in the League, Edwards might be more important to the team. Santonio Holmes won’t be back until week 5. For an offense that has a tendency to become stagnant, not having Holmes or Edwards is a troubling thought. However, Edwards will play as much as Ryan decides, and I can’t imagine he’ll sit Edwards too long if the offense can’t get going.

Not having Revis makes the defense weaker, but the D is still the strength of the team. In the secondary, Kyle Wilson and Antonio Cromartie will be at the corners and Jim Leonhard and Eric Smith as safeties. Even with a rookie, this is a great secondary. Their nickel package will suffer somewhat, but Miami’s strength is the run game anyway. Bart Scott leads the linebackers, with Jason Taylor coming back to Miami (he’s listed as questionable but expected to play). Sione Pouha is a beast on the defensive line, and Mike Devito is a talented end. This is likely the best defense in the NFL, even without Revis.

Miami has been impressive so far, winning both of their games of the road. But their first game was against Buffalo, so that doesn’t really count. Their second game was a win in the Metrodome against the Vikings, which is a nice victory. Minnesota has a talented team. The Dolphin defense has played spectacular so far. Against the Vikes, the D only gave up 1 touchdown and scored 1 of its own. The unit also stopped Adrian Peterson on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line to effectively seal the game.

The offense is obviously dependant upon the combination of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. The two running backs are one of the best tandems in the NFL. Chad Henne has Brandon Marshall and Anthony Fasano, but this offense is powered by the running backs.

There seem to be 2 keys to this game: the Dolphins ability to run against the Jets’ defense and the Jets ability to throw the ball against the Dolphins’ defense. If both are a wash, then I think the Jets ground game will be the deciding factor. Even though Peterson got stuffed at the goal line, the Vikes still rushed the ball for 156 yards. Look for Shonn Greene and a re-energized LaDanian Tomlinson to carry the load on offense, and the Jets’ D to shut down the Miami offense. This should be a close, low scoring game, but the Jets are the better team. Fade the public favorite in this one, and you’ll be glad you did.

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