The Rams opened as 3 ½ point underdogs to the visiting Arizona Cardinals. The line hasn’t moved much with sites putting the Cardinals at anywhere between 3 and 4 points, though 3 ½ seems to be the popular choice, as always view the current NFL odds. The public is playing the Rams at 75%, probably influenced by the Rams’ solid preseason performance. But I’m not convinced this is a decent football team. The regular season is a different beast from the preseason. I foresee the Rams and Bradford having a tough time with the Cardinals, and think it’s wise to fade the public favorite in this match-up.
The technical numbers argue against the Rams. Over the past 2 years they are 2-10 against the spread versus division opponents, 1-6 in September, and 6-10 at home. Now they are throwing a first year quarterback into the mix. While that might pay dividends next year or the year after, I expect this year to be challenging for Bradford and the Rams. The Cardinals have been more impressive against the spread over the past 2 seasons, going 8-4 versus division opponents, 3-4 in September, and 9-8 on the road.
Granted, the Cardinals had Kurt Warner at quarterback and Derek Anderson is obviously a downgrade. But at least Anderson has quite a bit of starting experience in the NFL. He even had one good season in Cleveland, so he’s proven to be capable in the League. Anderson also has Larry Fitzgerald to throw the ball to, which is a nice advantage. Beanie Wells is a year older and should have a productive season. Tim Hightower will also get a good number of carries. The defense loses Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle, but veteran Joey Porter was picked up. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson combined for 11 interceptions last year, and I look for them to key in on Bradford and pick off a pass or two.
As noted, rookie Sam Bradford gets the start for the Rams. I usually like to play against first year quarterbacks on bad teams. If Bradford had a great supporting cast or a tremendous defense, things would be different. But Bradford has neither. Additionally, Bradford missed all of the 2009 season at Oklahoma with an injury (minus the first half of the first game). Yes, he did play extensively in the preseason. And that certainly helped. But the preseason is not the regular season.
Speaking of a supporting cast, aside from Jackson (51 receptions) no other Ram had 50 catches all of last season! As a team, the Rams combined for only 8 interceptions, 3 fewer than Rodgers-Cromartie and Wilson combined. James Laurinaitis had a solid year. The defensive line (d-ends in particular) was ok. But overall this is a poor football team.
Ultimately, I see the Cardinals two years removed from the Super Bowl and one year removed from the playoffs. Even though Warner and Anquan Boldin are gone, there are still a lot of good football players with experience playing on a quality team. The same cannot be said of the Rams. They’ve been bad for a few years. Follow this line of thinking: in 2007 the Rams had 3 wins, in 2008 they had 2 wins, in 2009 they had 1 win – is it possible that they have 0 wins in 2010? I think so. Will they stay within a field goal of the Cardinals? I don’t think so. The Rams are a bad team and the Cardinals are mediocre at worst. Don’t get caught up in the Bradford/Rams preseason hoopla. The Cardinals are the pick in this one. Good luck on all your wagering.
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