With teams preparing for mini-camps and training camps, here is a look at the season win totals and some strategy when trying to figure out whether to pick the over or the under.
The Venetian and Lucky’s were the first Vegas sportsbooks to release their totals for each team. Brobury Sports is one of the few online sportsbooks that have season win totals available. Here are the current odds:
| Team | Venetian | Lucky’s | Brobury Sports |
| Indianapolis Colts | 11 | 11 | 11 Over(+110)/Under(-130) |
| San Diego Chargers | 10.5 | 11 | 11 Over(+110)/Under(-130) |
| New Orleans Saints | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 Over(even)/Under(-120) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 10 | 9.5 Over(-165)/Under(+145) |
| New York Jets | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 Over(+140)/Under(-160) |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 Over(-140)/Under(+120) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | 9.5 | 9.5 Over(-110)/Under(-110) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 | 9.5 | 10 Over(-110)/Under(-110) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 8.5 | 8.5 Over(-145)/Under(+125) |
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 9.5 | 9.5 Over(-165)/Under(+145) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 Over(-120)/Under(even) |
| New York Giants | 8.5 | 9 | 8.5 Over(-120)/Under(even) |
| Houston Texans | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8 Over(-130)/Under(+110) |
| Tennessee Titans | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 Over(-130)/Under(+110) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 9 | 9 Over(even)/Under(-120) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | 8.5 | 9 Over(+130)/Under(-150) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 8 | 7.5 Over(-130)/Under(+110) |
| Miami Dolphins | 8 | 8 | 8.5 Over(-110)/Under(-110) |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | 8 | 8 Over(+110)/Under(-130) |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | 8 | 7.5 Over(+110)/Under(-130) |
| Washington Redskins | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 Over(+120)/Under(-140) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 Over(-110)/Under(-110) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.5 | 7 | 7 Over(even)/Under(-120) |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | 7.5 | 7.5 Over(-155)/Under(+135) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 7.5 | 7.5 Over(-110)/Under(-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 6 | 6.5 Over(-150)/Under(+130) |
| Buffalo Bills | 5.5 | 6 | 5.5 Over(even)/Under(-120) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 Over(-110)/Under(-110) |
| Oakland Raiders | 5.5 | 6 | 6 Over(even)/Under(-120) |
| Detroit Lions | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 Over(-135)/Under(+115) |
| Cleveland Browns | 5 | 5.5 | 5.5 Over(+105)/Under(-125) |
| St. Louis Rams | 5 | 5 | 5 Over(+115)/Under(-140) |
It is still early in the preparation for the NFL season, but it is never too early to look at possible value. While the importance of the records from the previous season has been diminished due to the changed scheduling procedure, there are still ways to beat the season win totals.
In the past, a team’s schedule was based mainly on the previous season’s record. You could bank on an increased win total for weaker teams, based on an easier schedule. A common strategy was to pick the under for teams that were predicted to win more than nine games, and to pick the over for teams that were predicted to win six or less games.
With the change in scheduling, this is not a valid strategy anymore and the win totals don’t fluctuate as much from season to season. However, there are still strategies to figure out how to beat the books.
A great way to look at a team’s past success and predict future wins is to look at the turnover differential. Teams that ended up with big upside in takeaways over turnovers, most likely had some considerable luck on their side – especially when lots of fumbles were involved.
Picking off an opposing quarterback takes skill and doesn’t play into the equation as much. Stripping the ball from an opposing player also is a teachable skill – see the 2009 New Orleans Saints – but the recovery of the football after a fumble involves some serious luck. The ball bounces all over the place, and more often than not players just kind of happen to fall on it.
This luck tends to inflate a team’s total win number. Most of the time, teams aren’t lucky in back-to-back seasons, and their numbers will gravitate to the league average.
If a team had a lot of takeaways and little turnovers in 2009 (especially on fumbles), expect this number to decrease in 2010. This decrease in turnover differential will most likely result in fewer wins as well.
Here is a list of teams and their turnover differentials in 2009:
| Takeaways | Turnovers | ||||||
| TEAM | DIFF | FUM | INT | TOT | FUM | INT | TOT |
| Green Bay Packers | +24 | 10 | 30 | 40 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +15 | 13 | 25 | 38 | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| New Orleans Saints | +11 | 13 | 26 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 28 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +10 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 9 | 13 | 22 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +9 | 15 | 18 | 33 | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| San Diego Chargers | +8 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| Denver Broncos | +7 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| Carolina Panthers | +6 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 11 | 20 | 31 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +6 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 11 | 7 | 18 |
| New England Patriots | +6 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 9 | 13 | 22 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +3 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 8 | 17 | 25 |
| Buffalo Bills | +3 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 11 | 19 | 30 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2 | 10 | 16 | 26 | 5 | 19 | 24 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +2 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 10 | 17 | 27 |
| New York Jets | +1 | 14 | 17 | 31 | 9 | 21 | 30 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Houston Texans | -1 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 11 | 17 | 28 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -3 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 11 | 14 | 25 |
| Tennessee Titans | -4 | 7 | 20 | 27 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -5 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 5 | 29 | 34 |
| Chicago Bears | -6 | 15 | 13 | 28 | 7 | 27 | 34 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -7 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| New York Giants | -7 | 11 | 13 | 24 | 17 | 14 | 31 |
| Miami Dolphins | -8 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 10 | 19 | 29 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -8 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 12 | 19 | 31 |
| Washington Redskins | -11 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| Cleveland Browns | -12 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 31 |
| Oakland Raiders | -13 | 12 | 8 | 20 | 15 | 18 | 33 |
| St. Louis Rams | -13 | 12 | 8 | 20 | 12 | 21 | 33 |
| Detroit Lions | -18 | 14 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 32 | 41 |
Because the purpose of this blog is not only to provide you with quality sports betting information, but also to teach you to do this on your own take a few minutes to figure out a couple teams you feel might offer some value betting under or over their current season win total. We will come back with another post in a day or two with some more analysis and some leans we are looking to wager on.
