TOR @ GSW

Game 4

Time: 8 PM CT, ABC/ESPN

TOR leads 2-1

Spread: GSW -4.5

Total: 215

Odds c/o 5dimes

With Klay Thompson sitting out Game 3, it was supposed to be Stephen Curry’s Finals MVP statement game. It only kind of was. Curry lit the Toronto Raptors up for 47 points, but it was not nearly enough as Toronto won the game 123-109 to take a 2-1 series edge. The Warriors will likely have Thompson back for Game 4, and Golden State is 4.5-point favorites in the game which will tip off at 8 PM (CT) on ABC. NBA oddsmakers at 5dimes have set the over/under at 215 total points.

More than anything in game 3, the Warriors were not really lacking the offensive punch to get it done—it was much more akin to a defensive meltdown. The Raptors starters shot a collective 37 of 70 from the field as all five starters reached double figures. Kawhi Leonard led the way with 30 points on 9 of 1 shooting, while also snagging seven rebounds, dishing six assists, and coming up with four steals/blocks. Kyle Lowry had one of his better games of the postseason after struggling in the first two games of the series. He scored 23 points and dished nine assists while finishing +14 for his 43 minutes of court time. While Curry remained relatively unchecked, the rest of the Warriors provided precious little help to him.

Golden State shot just 39.6 percent from the field and connected on only 12 of 36 from three-point range. The Warriors also had 14 turnovers. One advantage the Dubs did hold was a +1 edge on the rebounding, but a lot of that was chasing its own misses as the Warriors had 13 offensive rebounds. DeMarcus Cousins was not the helpful player he was in the lone Warriors win in this series, instead, just finishing with just four points on 1 of 7 shooting while grabbing just three rebounds in 19 minutes of play. Shaun Livingston was a non-factor starting alongside Curry. The defense of Fred VanVleet has been absolutely instrumental in containing Curry, but without Thompson available Steph simply had a usage rate that was off the charts— VanVleet’s defense was actually rather solid. He also led Toronto bench scorers with 11 points on 4 of 8 shooting (3 of 6 from three).

With Thompson scheduled to play in this game, and Kevin Durant potentially returning for Game 5, this series might finally just be ready to turn the Warriors way. Toronto will head home for Game 5, but with Durant in tow, the Warriors might finally be pretty close to the full-strength juggernaut it was in the second half of the regular season. The line opened at GSW -5.5, and currently, 53 percent of bettors on Covers are siding with Golden State to cover the spread.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):