Orlando at Toronto

Time: 6 PM CT (NBA TV)

Toronto Leads 3-1

Game 5 Spread: TOR -11.5

Game 5 Total:  206

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Orlando Magic are a team on the rise, and it won Game 1 of the Best-of-Seven, but the better team tends to win seven-game series and the No. 2 seeded Toronto Raptors appear to be that team. The Raptors have won Games 2, 3, and 4 to take a 3-1 lead in the series with a chance to close it out on its home floor tonight. Toronto is heavy 11.5-point favorites, and given the play of Pascal Siakem and Kawhi Leonard, it is easy to see why.

For every Orlando run, the pairing of Siakem and Leonard found ways to thwart Orlando into a tough (blowout) Game 4 loss at the Amway Center.

For Orlando, perhaps making its first postseason appearance in the last seven years was ample improvement. Its young core has gained experience. Jonathan Isaac appears to be an emergent superstar, and Aaron Gordon has taken valuable steps towards becoming more consistent and reliable for the young Magic. Needless to say, Nikola Vucevic is in the process of making his “swan song” as a member of the Magic, and he has not played particularly well against Marc Gasol in this series.

But the real story for Toronto has been the dominance of Kawhi Leonard and likely Most Improved Player Pascal Siakem. The Raptors frontcourt is basically a “souped up” version of Orlando’s: Similar in talent, but with much more experience and savvy—and it has shown in the postseason. These two teams split the season series 2-2 and Orlando won Game 1, but the Raptors are now showing why it has been a force in the East for several seasons and why Orlando still a team “on the cusp at best.”

Leonard coasted to an easy 34-points on 12 of 20 shooting and Siakem added an efficient 16 points, six rebounds, and two assists. None of the other starting Raptors played particularly well in Game 4, but it hardly mattered. Leonard stifled every Orlando run, and Siakem’s intangibles were as loudly pronounced as his “counting stats.” The Raptors also are able to bring in one of the better 3/4 combos off the bench with Serge Ibaka and Norman Powell both contributing a combined 29 points on an outstanding collective 12 of 15 from the field.

The Magic simply had no defense for Toronto’s frontcourt, even though defense is supposed to be the identity of this Orlando team: It allowed 53 percent shooting and 11 of 28 from three-point range while also losing the battle of the boards by a margin of 11 rebounds. The Raptors are a better team and it was bound to show over the course of this series, but the Magic will continue to build around its young core as it likely bids goodbye to Vucevic this summer in free agency. As Vegas oddsmakers project, this is a likely series-ending game, but Orlando can take solace that it won a game in a series many expected to be a clean sweep.

ATS TRENDS (c/o Covers):