NCAA Football Week 2 Picks: Memphis Tigers at Navy Midshipmen

Memphis at Navy

Time: 2:30 PM CT

Total: MEM -7.5

Total: 68

The Memphis Tigers won 66-14 over Mercer in Week 1, and it will travel to face Navy on the road in Week 2. The Tigers are 7.5-point favorites over Navy, with an over/under set at 68 points according to NCAA Football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

MEMPHIS

Memphis absolutely dominated offensively in Week 1, using both its pass game and its rush attack to dismantle the Mercer Bears. Brady White threw 22 of 28 for 358 yards with five (!) TDs, and the Tigers rushed for 324 yards as a team with three players rushing for 50 yards or more.

The best of those was Calvin Austin III with 83 yards on a single carry, which was for a touchdown. Darrell Henderson also “put in work” with nine rushes for 76 yards and a TD. Damonte Coxie led the wide receiving corp with 79 yards on four receptions, including a 45-yard catch and a touchdown. The Tigers averaged 15.3 yards per reception, with nine players catching a double-digit yardage pass in the game.

Troubling for Memphis, perhaps, was its three fumbles, but only one of those was a lost fumble (by Cameron Fleming). Defensively, Memphis was led by JJ Russell who had four tackles, including two solo and a sack. The Memphis defense also forced four fumbles, but it recovered none of those. It also limited Mercer to just 14 of 27 passing while holding the Bears to a pitiful 2.5 yards-per-carry.

All those signs were encouraging for Memphis, but Navy may be a bit tougher to conquer in Week 2.

NAVY

Navy lost its week 1 matchup 41-59 to Hawaii. The Midshipmen rushed for 326 yards on 49 carries (6.7 yards per) but it managed just 85 total passing yards on 6 of 13 passing, something that is a theme for the Midshipmen every season. Perhaps the most troubling sign of its Week 1 loss was that QB Garret Lewis had such trouble rushing the ball, with a single yard on seven attempts total. Malcolm Perry had success with 108 yards on 17 carries, and Nelson Smith had 86 yards on 10 carries, but the Midshipmen are used to (much) more production from its dual-threat quarterbacks than what Lewis was limited to.

Last year, Navy finished 7-6 with a 4-4 mark in the AAC. The season was slightly disappointing all things considered, though Navy did make a Bowl game, and it defeated Virginia 49-7 in the Military Bowl (kind of a “Gimme” bowl game, but whatever).

Navy’s offense is the most one-dimensional in the nation, and it was even more so last season with Abey rushing down the middle nearly every play. Perry is a lot more versatile and will be the workhorse this season. Navy has posted a winning season in 15 of the past 16, and it makes a relatively decent “upset” pick as just 7.5 point underdogs at home in Week 2.

ATS TRENDS:

Memphis
  • Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Tigers are 9-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
  • Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
  • Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
  • Tigers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 14-29-2 ATS in their last 45 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Navy
  • Midshipmen are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
  • Midshipmen are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
  • Midshipmen are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Midshipmen are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.
  • Midshipmen are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 games on fieldturf.
  • Midshipmen are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
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