Game 1 Odds
New Orleans at Golden State
Time: 9:30 PM CT (TNT)
Spread: GSW -9
Total: 223.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
The New Orleans Pelicans won its opening series with a decisive 4-0 sweep over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Golden State Warriors, too, took care of business in dispatching the San Antonio Spurs in five games. Now the Pelicans and Warriors collide in Round 2, with Golden State hoping to ease Stephen Curry back into action as it truly begins its postseason in earnest.
This is Anthony Davis’ first time out of the first round though, and The Brow has been on an absolute tear. In fact, he is the only NBA Player other than Michael Jordan to average 30-plus points per game for his postseason career. But can that be enough for the Pelicans against the defending NBA champs? Game 1 sees the Warriors as 9-point favorites in NBA odds, with an over/under set at 223.5 points according to NBA oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.
There are a lot of reasons the Dubs are favored in this series, but it becomes most clear just how commanding an advantage Golden State has when this is viewed positionally. From its superior depth to its sharpshooting wings of Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, New Orleans will need to play near-perfection just to stay in this series. But nevertheless, we will examine just what makes the Warriors the heavy favorites they are against this surprising Pelicans team.
Backcourt: Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson vs. Rajon Rondo/Jrue Holiday
Jrue Holiday just turned in this series of his life, and the Pelicans are going to need him to do it again. Holiday played the role of a superstar in Round 1, finishing with averages of 27.8 points, 6.5 assists, four rebounds and 1.25 steals per game while playing 37.5 minutes a night. He was exactly what the Pelicans needed to complement Davis, but he is counted upon as heavily defensively as he is to score. Holiday is going to have to slow either Curry or Thompson, though it can be expected that in typical fashion he and Rajon Rondo serve as interchangeable guards in the backcourt.
If Curry is hot, expect Holiday to draw the assignment, but if the Dubs lean on Thompson, he may well draw that matchup. Beyond that? It would not be out of line to expect the 6’4” Holiday to see time at the 3-spot covering Kevin Durant. With all he is going to be asked to do defensively, can he maintain that 27 points per game? It seems improbable, but this is a time that legends are made, and Curry certainly knows that well. A ready Curry will ensure Golden State’s heady edge in the backcourt, but if the two-time MVP is a little gimpy, Rondo and Holiday could bounce all over that. Even so, this is a backcourt of two of the best shooters in the league against two defensive wizards. It is going to be entertaining at the very minimum.
Edge: Warriors
Frontcourt: Kevin Durant/Draymond Green/JaVale McGee vs. E’Twaun Moore/Nikola Mirotic/Anthony Davis
This is really a tale of two superstars in the frontcourt. Kevin Durant may be in for a huge series, as the Pelicans simply do not have the “Three and D” players on the wing to have any answer for Durantula. E’Twaun Moore barely stands 6’5” and will have to somehow find a way to contest the 6’10” Durant. If the Pelicans try to turn to Solomon Hill, they incur the offensive deficit because Hill is not much of a scorer. Moore can get buckets, but it is tough to imagine him having a lot of success doing it against Durant and his colossal wingspan.
Centers Emeka Okafor and JaVale McGee are close to non-factors. Both may see their minutes cut a lot in this series, as neither offers much on the offensive end. Where the intrigue begins is in the matchup at the 4-spot where reigning Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green will try his luck on Davis. Davis averaged 33 points and 11.8 rebounds in the four games against Portland, and Jusuf Nurkic had almost no chance to match his speed and agility.
That is less true of Green, who has the lateral foot speed and deceptive length to potentially give Davis problems. But he probably will not. Davis is the best frontcourt player in the Association without a doubt, and he is going to make his statement against the defending champs. The matter is whether Golden State really puts a concerted effort towards doubling Davis or not. It might let Green take his chances defensively while letting Davis “get his” and stopping his teammates.
Keep an eye on Nikola Mirotic, however, as McGee cannot just leave him open if Green does draw Davis defensively. Mirotic shot 46.2 percent from three in Round 1, while averaging 18.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. He has helped cushion the loss of DeMarcus Cousins, while the Pelicans have gotten only better with his court spacing in the lineup. Cousins was a court spacer in his own right, but he didn’t knock them down at a 46 percent clip either.
Edge: Pelicans
Benches:
The New Orleans Pelicans encounter its biggest matchup problems when the second units take the floor. New Orleans tries to limit that as much as possible. The Pelicans played four of its five starters 35 minutes or more per game in the opening round, and even with a torrid pace in this series, they may have no choice but to repeat that. Jordan Crawford barely played, and he is arguably the Pelicans best scorer off the bench. Ian Clark and Darius Miller were the only two players to even factor into the rotation, but both had minimal impact on the series.
Conversely, Golden State has a plethora of useful second unit players. The Dubs can utilize the defense of Andre Iguodala, the mid-range shooting of David West, and the athleticism of Kevon Looney, to get production from several sources in various manners. Shaun Livingston is also a savvy veteran guard who can help get Curry the needed rest for him to be eased back into form. Livingston averaged 9.4 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 19 minutes in the opening round, and Quinn Cook started in place of Curry to average 5.8 points and 2.4 rebounds per game.
Neither was lighting it on fire, of course, but the Dubs have the reserves to get its starters rest if necessary. That said, Green, Thompson, and Durant all saw 37 minutes per game or more against the Spurs, but that was with Curry not available. One would figure Steve Kerr tapers his stars minutes as much as possible in a playoff series. Then again, the theme of this series may be “burn out” as the Pelicans are going to rely heavily on its starters.
Edge: Warriors, by a lot
The Bottom Line:
New Orleans has been exciting and fun. Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis are one of the best tandems in the league, and Nikola Mirotic has found his niche and home in New Orleans. But that likely still will not be anywhere close to enough against the loaded Dubs. The biggest issue we see is that there is just no defensive answer for Kevin Durant, and even if Davis really is able to abuse Green in the post and on the blocks, it is going to require basically three Jrue Holidays running around the court defensively to slow Golden State, and luckily for Steve Kerr, the Pelicans only have one.
Prediction: Warriors in 5
