NBA Western Conference Playoff Picks: Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz – Game 6

Oklahoma City at Utah – Game 6
Time: 9:30 PM CT (ESPN)
Spread: UTA -6.5
Total: 207

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Utah Jazz’ three-game playoff win streak came to a crashing end in Game 5 as Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder rallied from down 25 to win Game 5 by a 107-99 count and push the series back to Utah for Game 6. The Jazz can end it tonight on its home court and it is 6.5-point favorites at 9:30 PM (CT) on ESPN. The over/under is set at 207 points, and the Game 5 total was 206 points.

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Russell Westbrook for all his shortcomings, can certainly will a team to victory. Westbrook attempted 39 (!) field goals in Game 5, but he finished with 45 points, 15 rebounds, and seven assists—while recording a +10 mark for his 44 minutes of play. Paul George helped out plenty, though, hitting 12 of 26 en route to 34 points and eight rebounds. Those two were enough, with Carmelo Anthony totally disappearing and hitting just 2 of 6 from the field for seven points. Westbrook and George attempted a combined 65 field goals, with just 24 more shots dispersed among seven of their supporting cast.

It was as close to 2-on-5 basketball as one might ever see, and yet despite that, it worked. Westbrook continually broke down the defense, and his three was oddly in harmony, as he hit 5 of 9 from being the arc and the Thunder shot 9 of 21 as a team from deep. OKC also limited its turnovers to just eight, and Utah held only a +2 advantage on the glass where it has dominated OKC in this series.

Utah used a balanced team attack most of the game to dominate, but it was outscored by 24 in the second half as its offense started to fall flat. Jae Crowder had a rare offensively dominant performance in scoring 27 points on 9 of 19 shooting off the bench, including hitting 6 of 14 from three. Rookie Donovan Mitchell turned in a solid, if not spectacular, performance in going 9 of 22 from the field for 23 points, five rebounds, and three assists, but he was -9 for his 40 minutes of court time.

The Jazz shot just 40.7 percent from the field and committed 16 turnovers to its 19 team assists, so it will need to take far better care of the ball while finding some sort of answer for Westbrook and George. Of course, that also includes keeping Anthony in check, but that has scarcely been a problem as he has appeared uninterested offensively with George and Westbrook doing so much dribbling and isolation. Anthony now must know how his teammates felt in New York.

Expect the Thunder’s isolation schemes to fall short as Utah closes out a series victory tonight to advance and face the Houston Rockets next round. Donovan Mitchell will need all of his superpowers against the NBA’s best offensive team in Round 2.

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ATS TRENDS

Oklahoma City
  • Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Thunder are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Thunder are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Northwest.
  • Thunder are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.
  • Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Utah
  • Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Jazz are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games.
  • Jazz are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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