Minnesota at Dallas
Time: 7:30 PM CT (NBA LP)
Spread: MIN -6
Total: 216.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
The Minnesota Timberwolves are currently seeded No. 7 in the Western Conference and trying to move up in a tightly packed race that could see the Wolves ascend as high as the No. 3 seed , or miss the postseason altogether. Minnesota has won just five of its past 10 games, but clings to a 1.5 game lead over No. 9 Los Angeles in trying to secure its spot in the 2018 postseason.
It will be the first playoff appearance for Minnesota since the days of Kevin Garnett, and Karl-Anthony Towns and company are no doubt chomping at the bits to begin the postseason appearances, as Minnesota has amassed the young talent to become a real force in the league in the next few season.
They enter tonight’s game against the Dallas Mavericks as 6-point favorites on NBA League Pass, as the 23-52 Mavericks have nothing to look forward to but a rare lottery appearance and the likely retirement of legend Dirk Nowitzki.
Minnesota Notes:
The Timberwolves have been so strong at home this season, where it has posted a 28-10 mark, but now it needs to get its act together on the road. Minnesota is just 15-23 on the road this season, and that is part of the reason Tom Thibodeau’s Wolves are just 6-point favorites against one of the league’s worst teams.
Moreover, Minnesota will not have home court advantage at any point in this season’s playoffs (unless they ascend to a top-4 seed before the final week), so winning on the road will be imperative to have any real chance at success this season.
Even so, this has been a major year of growth for Thibodeau’s team, and the acquisition of veteran Jimmy Butler has plenty to do with it. Butler emerged as a star under Thibbs in Chicago, and the Wolves were savvy to acquire him for Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn on 2017 Draft night. He has become something of a missing piece, and while his offensive numbers are down, the defensive presence and leadership he has brought to this young team has been invaluable.
Beyond the obvious, the Wolves have the pieces in place already to score points—that had never been the problem. Minnesota is averaging nearly 110 points per game this season, but allowing 107.7.
That defensive blemish, as well as some issues executing late in games, is largely what has capped the Wolves’ progress in still what has to be considered an overwhelming season of progression.
Towns is averaging 21.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, while Butler does lead the team in scoring at 22.2 points per night. Andrew Wiggins has started to round out his game a little bit more, but still has a lot of growth to make before he can be called a ‘complete player.’ The Wolves also have got a little less from Jeff Teague than it might have hoped for. His 14 points and seven assists per game pretty much fill the role once occupied by Ricky Rubio, but there are times when his teammates may wish he were a little more assertive and greedy with the ball in his hands.
The Wolves also may need more from sixth man Jamal Crawford if it is to make a serious playoff run. We are all aware of how well Crawford can light it up off an NBA bench, but this season he is averaging just 10 points per game while shooting 41 percent from the floor and 33 percent from three-point range. Minnesota connects on “only” 8.1 threes per game while shooting 36 percent of a team, so its methodology differs somewhat from the likes of Houston and Golden State. That may end up being its secret strength if it is to succeed as young underdogs in the 2018 playoffs.
Dallas Notes:
Dallas (23-51), though eliminated mathematically from the 2018 playoffs, has several reasons to be excited about the progress of what has to be called one of the stranger rebuilds in recent history. While still clinging to what is left of Dirk Nowitzki’s career, the Mavs are nevertheless in something of a tank mode, bent on developing their young talents and positioning themselves for another high pick in the 2018 draft. And that is not all bad. The No. 8 overall pick from the 2017 draft has thus far panned out brilliantly for Dallas, as Dennis Smith Jr. is becoming a household name on a horrible team, which is something of a task in and of itself.
Smith has only been getting more aggressive and better as his rookie season has worn on. Over the Mavericks last five games (four of which were losses), he has averaged 13.6 points, 6.4 assists and 4.0 rebounds while shooting just 29 percent from the floor. His three-point stroke still leaves some room for improvement at just 31.6 percent on the season, but what he lacks in marksmanship he makes up for with extra-worldly athleticism. Over the last five games he has connected on just 4 of 23 from behind the arc.
Shooting struggles aside, Smith’s highlights should keep him on everyone’s radar until the Mavericks build a team around him, but in the meantime, it is difficult to ignore what he is doing already. Smith had 12 points and five assists in the 106-99 victory over Sacramento last outing on Feb. 3, and while outside of swingman Harrison Barnes, not much surrounds him, he does look to have the makings of a true superstar to cede Nowitzki after he finally decides to hang it up.
Dirk still has started every game this season, but he is just playing 25 minutes a night and averaging a very humble 12 points and five rebounds per game. Perhaps the most telling part of his decline, however, has not been the reduction in minutes and usage, but the fact Nowitzki is shooting just 46 percent from the field and attempting just under 10 shots per game. While his guile and skill should enable him to remain at least this effective a little longer, there is no delusional Mavericks fan that is waiting nor expecting him to return to the MVP-caliber play by which his career became known for.
Nevertheless, Barnes (18.4 points per game) and Smith should keep Dallas relevant once Dirk does retire, and the Mavericks may ultimately look for a frontcourt replacement this year in the NBA Draft. It is a rebuild certainly that has more promise than others around the league, despite the fact it is hard to just call it a rebuild while rostering a Hall of Fame talent, still.
