NFL Sunday Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Isaiah Crowell rushed for 65 yards and a TD in Week 1, while coming up with four first downs.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Time: 1 PM ET (CBS)
Spread: BAL -5.5
M/L: BAL -235, CLE +195
Total: 42

Betting odds c/o 5dimes

The Baltimore Ravens were week 1 winners 13-7 over the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor threw 15 of 22 for 111 yards, but averaged just 5.0 yards per pass attempt and did not reach the end zone, as the Ravens defense also limited Buffalo to just 65 yards on the ground.

Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco threw 22 of 33 for completion with 258 yards and one TD in the game. He was sacked four times for a loss of 33 yards, but still finished with a 100.3 passer rating and several Bills WRs had big games. Mike Wallace had three catches for 91 yards, including a 66-yard pass and a TD, while Dennis Pitta had three catches for 39 yards.

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The Ravens caught 22 passes for an average of 11.7 yards per attempt, and seven players had 10-plus yard catches in the game. The ground game was hardly as good with Justin Forsett getting just 41 yards on 10 carries and Terrance West accounting for 32 yards on 12 carries.

Baltimore averaged just 3.0 yards per attempt on its 28 rushes, and Flacco was particularly ineffective going for -3 yards on his four carries. Flacco is in his 9th NFL season and he threw for 2,791 yards last season at a 64.4 percent completion clip. Flacco averaged just 6.76 yards per attempt last season, ranking below seven for the second time in the past four years. He has not averaged a passer rating better than 90 since 2014, but he did fumble just twice all last season while throwing 12 interceptions to just 14 TDs.

Forsett played in just 10 games last season with 151 carries for 641 yards. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry, his first below 5.0 since 2011, his third NFL season. The 5’8” 195 pound back from California rushed for 1,266 yards in 2014, his last full NFL season, and the Ravens need him back to that level of production. It was his best NFL season, but for Baltimore to gain sufficient ground yardage it is going to require Forsett playing his best football.

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The Cleveland Browns lost 29-10 in Week 1 to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Browns gave up 278 passing yards and 133 rushing yards, while managing just 168 and 120, respectively itself. Robert Griffin III threw just 12 of 26 for 190 yards with no TDs and an interception, while also being sacked three times for a loss of 22 yards. His passer rating of 55.0 was not a nice notch either.

The Browns did get some success from Isaiah Crowell in the backfield, as he rushed 12 times for 62 yards and a TD, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with a long of 20-yards. Griffin rushed for 37 yards on five carries, too, and Duke Johnson Jr. of Miami rushed for 22 yards on three carries.

The Browns averaged 5.7 yards per carry as a team, which offset some of Griffin’s poor throwing. Corey Coleman led the team with 69 receiving yards on two catches, and Terrelle Pryor caught three passes for 68 yards, but missed four of his seven targeted passes.

Johnson caught three for 28 yards out of the backfield, and he could be a reasonable dual-threat option within the Browns offense. He is in his second season after averaging 3.6 yards per carry on 104 attempts as a rookie. He gained 19 first downs and appeared in all 16 games, and the third round pick has a lot of potential moving forward at just 22 years of age.

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ATS TRENDS

Baltimore
Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC North. Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Ravens are 2-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Cleveland
Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 2. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Browns are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. Browns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Browns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Browns are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC North. Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

OU TRENDS

Baltimore
Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games following a ATS win. Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC. Over is 6-2 in Ravens last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 21-8 in Ravens last 29 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cleveland
Under is 6-0 in Browns last 6 games overall. Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games on grass. Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games following a straight up loss. Under is 4-0 in Browns last 4 games following a ATS loss. Under is 4-0 in Browns last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. Under is 6-0 in Browns last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 6-1 in Browns last 7 games in September. Under is 5-1 in Browns last 6 vs. AFC. Under is 8-2 in Browns last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 8-2 in Browns last 10 vs. AFC North. Over is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games in Week 2.

HEAD TO HEAD

Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Cleveland. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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