Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Game 1: 8 PM CST, TV: ESPN
Spread: GSW -10
M/L: GSW -650; HOU +425
Total: 221
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Houston Rockets advanced past the L.A. Clippers in a Game 7 that was entirely in Houston’s favor for the full 48 minutes.
The Rockets now turn its attention to the NBA’s best team, the 67-win Golden State Warriors, who enter the game as heavy 10- point favorites in NBA live lines at Bovada.
This series will be a high scoring affair, and the point total of 221 accurately reflects these teams’ offensive prowess. For an explanation of how to bet NBA odds see our NBA odds explained.
The Golden State Warriors took care of its first round opponent New Orleans with a 4-0 sweep. While Anthony Davis and company were pleased to be in the postseason, the Warriors did prove to be too much, even with New Orleans playing some of its best basketball.
The second round proved to be far more difficult for Golden State, though it did not need the full seven games to defeat the Memphis Grizzlies, winning Game 6 by a count of 108-95 to clinch the series. The Grizzlies received some inspired play from injured team leader Mike Conley, but the Warriors put Klay Thompson on him in Game 6 to pester him with added length.
Moreover, Thompson is an underrated defender, and his perimeter skills are a part of what renders Golden State so formidable defensively. When Draymond Green was asked how the Warriors would contend with a Dwight Howard – James Harden pick and roll, Green responded “It’s nothing we haven’t seen before.” The Warriors have immense confidence in its defense, and the team that is able to gear up defensively will be the one to emerge from this series. Neither team typically has any trouble scoring.
Stephen Curry is averaging 28.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game in the postseason, with his backcourt mate Thompson averaging 20.7 points per game as well. Green is still making his bid for a max-contract this summer, and he’s averaging a double-double in the postseason with 13.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, five assists and two steals per game.
Harrison Barnes also saved his best ball for the postseason and his defense has been superb in the playoffs. He’s averaging 11 points per game and five boards, while coming up with 1.4 blocks/steals, but his low defensive numbers are partly a reflection of how well Barnes does avoiding reaching in. He averages just 1.6 fouls in his 32 minutes per game, because he’s able to slide his feet well and stay in front of opposing players. Barnes will draw some of the defensive assignments on Harden, though Thompson will be his primary defender.
Andre Iguodala has seen a reduced role but the veteran will get his time trying to slow down Harden as well.
James Harden is averaging 10.4 free throw attempts per game and knocking them down at a 94 percent clip. He’s also averaging 26 points and eight assists per game, making his strong case that it was he who should have garnered the MVP trophy, not the Warriors’ Steph Curry. This series will be a chance for Harden to further prove that notion, though with NBA odds so heavily reflecting the Warriors as favorites, it seems doubtful that the Rockets are able to trudge through this series, particularly after being pushed so hard by the Clippers.
Houston had just one day’s rest between the end of the last series.
One of the major x-factors here will be how well Josh Smith can cover Draymond Green. Green brings a lot of muscle and basketball intelligence, while Smith is not a physical nor smart player. The Warriors could potentially exploit Smith in the post, while Terrence Jones also lacks the power to keep Green from pushing it down Houston’s throat.
The Warriors are a team built on its perimeter strength, and Howard will be preoccupied enough with grabbing rebounds that Green could have a feast inside on the Rockets’ frontcourt. He’s been very motivated this offseason and given his versatile skill set he will be able to pull Smith and Jones out on the court and provide further spacing for the penetration of the Warriors guards.
The ball movement has been top-notch for the Warriors in the postseason with the team averaging 24 assists on 37 field goals per game. Golden State is also shooting 38.5 percent from three-point range as a team, and while many are quick to cite the dictum “live by the three, die by the three,” it applies less so in the NBA where seven-game series can be a great equalizer.
The model of teams that have won with three-point shooting is by no means restrictive, and the Rockets, too, are employing the same model it did during its glory years with Hakeem Olajuwon. Houston uses a more inside/outside approach than the Warriors, but both teams are deadly in half court pick and rolls, and this series should be a high scoring one, even if Golden State is heavily favored.
