Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic
Time: 7:05 PM ET
TV: NBA League Pass
Spread: PHO -4.5
Total: 201
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Orlando Magic were seemingly just turning the corner and had won three straight. That all reverted last week to an 0-3 week for the Magic featuring losses to the Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets. The Magic will try to get back on track at home against a Phoenix Suns team fighting for its playoff lives. Orlando is 4.5 point underdogs in NBA daily lines at Bovada, and the total set for the game is 201. For an explanation of what these odds mean, see our NBA odds explained.
The Magic have not done an exceptionally good job of defending its homecourt. At the Amway Center, the Magic are just 9-20 this season, despite having won three straight prior to last week. The Magic have a -5.7 point differential and surrender over 101 points per game this season. New head coach James Borrego has experimented with the rotations, but it has added an element of instability.
After two stat stuffing near-triple doubles, Elfrid Payton has been relegated to the bench. The rookie played just four minutes in the second half of the loss to the Hornets, and Willie Green has found himself the de facto point guard in small lineups. Then, Borrego also inexplicably went with Ben Gordon for the entire fourth quarter after the veteran had amassed 12 DNPs in 14 games. Andrew Nicholson is suddenly getting minutes and producing, and seldom-used Maurice Harkless is hitting stride and making good defensive plays. Dewayne Dedmon is an absolute monster and never lets up on the throttle. Teams struggle to keep him off the o-glass.
So, why are the Magic still losing?
The starting frontcourt just isn’t producing outside of Nikola Vucevic.
Even Vucevic at times has been caught flat footed, and ranking No. 5 in the rebounding category is more a result of opportunity than sheer greatness. When he gets his mind to it, he can make a living on the offensive glass due to the Magic missing so many jumpers. The Magic have been out-rebounded by opposing frontcourts 56 to 42 over the past two games, and the Hawks frontcourt hit the Magic for 52 points and seven three-pointers. Paul Millsap alone bagged four triples on the Magic in the first quarter, as the Hawks raced out to a 10-point lead barely two minutes into the game.
Elfrid Payton has looked utterly confused at times, aware that the only shots falling for him are his short range floaters in the paint. At this point, it looks as though the same problems that have plagued Rajon Rondo throughout his professional career are going to work their black magic on Payton too. Point guards need at least semi-reliable jumpers to keep defenses honest, and Payton just doesn’t have one.
Victor Oladipo has honed his shot incredibly in a year, but his mechanics were never as methodically ugly as Payton’s. V.O. has shined this season and is on the brink of being a star, but the Magic just lack cohesiveness and the NBA oddsmakers have rightly set the line against it despite being in the team’s own venue. Orlando is searching for stability and an identity. The Magic have Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon both listed as questionable for the game. Fournier had been providing a lot of second unit playmaking and Gordon is a great energy rookie off the bench, so their status could potentially give the Magic reserves a boost if they are able to go.
The Phoenix Suns are 31-30 and sit 2.5 games behind OKC for that last playoff spot. Few expect Phoenix to contend for it. The Suns lost both Isaiah Thomas to Boston and Goran Dragic to Miami at the trade deadline, and finding stability has been tough.
The Suns have won just two of its past eight games, and with just 24 games remaining on the schedule it is going to be tough for the Suns to reel off a substantial streak and surpass both New Orleans (who is without three starters) and OKC. Phoenix is also not especially dominant at home, where it has gone just 17-13 this season. Phoenix has typically had no trouble scoring the ball, ranking 3rd in the Association in points per game, but equivocally, its defense ranks the 3rd-worst.
The Suns are banking heavily on Brandon Knight, despite a short resume that only includes strong play for a poor Milwaukee Bucks team. Through six games, he has scored 13.5 points and dished 4.5 assists per game for the Suns, but his efficiency hasn’t been high, at all. Knight’s PER is just 8.1 and it has to be wondered if he is going to reach Milwaukee-level play—this season at least.
Eric Bledsoe is performing about as well as could have been expected, but he’s going to have to take on an even larger role with Dragic removed from the picture. Dealing Dragic was a near must with him wanting out, but letting go of the dynamic water bug Thomas made less sense. Tyler Ennis has been in the D-League most of the season and the Suns lack playmakers behind Knight. Gerald Green is still mostly an offensive player, and the Suns don’t really have frontcourt threats to balance what was at one point a loaded backcourt.
It’s tough to see where the Suns are going, and the playoffs are not a likely destination. Alex Len has looked very promising, but the Suns don’t really have a franchise talent, notwithstanding that Bledsoe still has a higher ceiling to reach. Markieff Morris is a good stretch-4, but he’s a role player, and this Suns team needs a couple more legitimate two-way players in both the frontcourt and backcourt. .
